Here are five of my favorite NFL player props for Week 4 currently available on the board. For all my Week 4 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

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Odds and projections are as of Thu. 9/26 at 6:30 pm ET.

Brock Purdy Over 7.5 Rushing Yards

  • Odds: -105 (BetMGM)
  • My Projection: 11.6

Purdy isn't much of a scrambler, and the 49ers are week-best -10.5 home favorites, so there's always the chance that Purdy could lose yards at the end of the game with some kneeldowns.

But the Patriots are the type of team—especially as a big underdog—likely to apply pressure on defense and force Purdy from the pocket, which could lead to some runs outside of the designed rushing game.

If we look at the QBs the Patriots have faced so far, all of them—Joe Burrow (15 yards), Geno Smith (8), and Aaron Rodgers (18)—all of them have gone over the current market number of 7.5.

And Purdy has easily gone over this number and his rushing prop in every game this season.

  • Week 1: Prop - 6.5 | Production - 11
  • Week 2: Prop - 7.5 | Production - 12
  • Week 3: Prop - 8.5 | Production - 41

Even though Purdy has smashed his prop every game, his number is still where it was two weeks ago. The market hasn't come close to adjusting to the new Purdy—and I'd argue that there is a new Purdy.

Last year, he hit the over on his rushing prop in just eight of 19 games and had just 9.0 yards on 2.4 carries per game. The sample is small, but three games into this season, he's averaging 21.3 on 4.3.

Purdy is running more—and he's specifically scrambling more (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

  • 2023 (19 games): 5% designed rush rate | 4% scramble rate
  • 2024 (3 games): 4% designed rush rate | 9% scramble rate

While his role in the designed run game has stayed steady (and it has even declined a little), Purdy's scramble rate has more than doubled, and I think that's probably not random.

Last year, when Purdy started to feel pressure in the pocket, he could always dump the ball off to RB Christian McCaffrey, one of the league's best pass-catching backs.

Now, without McCaffrey (Achilles, IR), Purdy seems likelier to turn a would-have-been dump-off into a scramble, because backup RB Jordan Mason—for as good as he has been—is not much of a receiver with just four targets in three games.

Until the market adjusts on Purdy—or until he starts scrambling less—his rushing yardage props will likely continue to be exploitable.

James Conner Under 17.5 Carries

  • Odds: -135 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 14.5

The Cardinals are favored by -3.5 at home, so there's always the chance that they could get out to a lead and look to control the game with Conner and the ground attack in the second half.

But I'm skeptical.

With rookie QB Jayden Daniels—rightfully a +170 Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite—the Commanders offense has been so good at moving the ball that P Tress Way hasn't attempted a punt since Week 1.

I expect the Commanders to put up points and force the Cardinals into a shootout, which will incentivize them to move away from the running game and lean more on the passing game, especially since the strength of the Commanders defense is in the middle with DTs Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Jer'Zhan Newton, and the weakness of the defense is the secondary, where the team could be without CB Emmanuel Forbes (thumb), who hasn't played since Week 1.

And even with Forbes, the secondary is bad. The Commanders are No. 32 in defensive pass EPA (0.499, per RBs Don't Matter) and defensive pass DVOA (60.8%, per FTN).

The Cardinals will likely need to attack the Commanders via the air—and that should mean a reduced rushing workload for Conner.

This year, all the lead backs to face the Commanders have failed to hit the 17.5-carry threshold.

I expect Conner to continue that streak.

Justin Watson Under 1.5 Receptions

  • Odds: -123 (BetRivers)
  • My Projection: 1.1

In Week 11 last year, the Chiefs gave Watson 11 targets.

ELEVEN!!!

He converted those 11 targets into a modest 53 yards in a 21-17 Super Bowl rematch loss at home to the Eagles.

And that was the point when the Chiefs said to themselves, “You know what? Maybe double-digit opportunities in one game is too many for a special teamer-turned-starter by default.”

Since then, Watson has had fewer than 1.5 receptions in 10 of 14 games.

He's a situational deep threat, so he doesn't see many targets anyway—and the Chiefs are -7.5 favorites on the road against the Chargers: They will likely have little incentive in this game to pass at a high rate and attack downfield.

Saquon Barkley Anytime TD

  • Odds: -133 (BetRivers)
  • My Projection: 0.8 TDs | -180.7 odds

At -133, Barkley has a 57.1% implied probability to score a TD against the Buccaneers this weekend (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think his true odds are almost 65%, so I see significant value in this prop.

WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, which makes them highly uncertain (and probably unlikely) to play, and if they're out I expect the Eagles to rely heavily on Barkley, which gives him a greater chance of scoring.

Near the goal line especially, the team might opt to run when it otherwise could have chosen to pass with Brown and Smith on the field.

With a league-high five TDs in three games, Barkley still has the ability to turn almost any touch into a score, and he's seeing a far greater percentage of the team's carries inside the five-yard line than his predecessor.

That's a far cry from the 100% of inside-the-five rush attempts Barkley had with the Giants last year—but sometimes a smaller piece of a much bigger pie results in more food, and Barkley is eating in 2024.

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions

  • Odds: -130 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 0.79 INTs | -174.7 odds

Last week I bet the over on Allen's INT prop at even money and lost, so now I'm doubling down—because anytime you have the opportunity to repeat a non-winning wager at worse odds you've gotta do it.

That's what I always say.

Allen has been awesome this year. He very much deserves to be the +250 MVP frontrunner that he is.

With zero INTs on the season, his ball protection has been immaculate.

But come on. This can't last forever. Deep down, Allen is still a gunslinging son of a gunslinger. Last year, he threw 18 INTs in 19 games (including playoffs). The year before that, 17 INTs in 18 games. And the year before that, 15 in 19.

Throwing INTs is what Allen does. He's not a bad QB, but he's aggressive: He attacks downfield, and he's not afraid to throw into tight coverage. And that results in INTs.

Since OC Joe Brady assumed playcalling duties last year in Week 11, the Bills have focused more on running the ball, and Allen's INTs have dropped. In 12 games with Brady, Allen has just seven INTs with a pick in just six of them.

There's good reason to expect Allen to throw fewer INTs this year than he has thrown in prior years.

But even after their impressive open to the season, the Bills are still +2.5 underdogs on the road to the Ravens. They might need to open up the passing game more than they have at any other point this season—and if that happens I like the chances for Allen to throw his first INT of the year. Finally.