Here are five of my favorite NFL player props for Week 5 currently available. For all my Week 5 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

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Odds and projections are as of Fri. 10/4 at 5 am ET.

Cowboys @ Steelers Week 5 Player Prop

Dak Prescott Under 2.5 Carries

  • Odds: +125 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 2.5

Prescott is now 31 years old, and since passing the age Rubicon he has exhibited even less willingness to run the football.

Prior to his season-ending (and arguably career-altering) 2020 leg injury, Prescott was a consistent runner. And even after his injury he still ran at a respectable rate despite being less effective overall. This year, though, his rushing frequency and efficiency have cratered.

  • 2016-20: 3.8 carries per game | 5.1 yards per carry
  • 2021-23: 3.3 carries per game | 3.9 yards per carry
  • 2024: 1.8 carries per game | 3.0 yards per carry

The real issue is that, while his usage in the designed run game has held steady, Prescott has turned into a virtual nonentity as a scrambler (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

  • 2021: 6% designed rush rate | 3% scramble rate
  • 2022: 6% designed rush rate | 4% scramble rate
  • 2023: 6% designed rush rate | 5% scramble rate
  • 2024: 6% designed rush rate | 1% scramble rate

In not one game this year has Prescott had more than 2.5 carries, and his carry prop under is 4-0 through the first month of the season.

And the Steelers have done an excellent job this year of containing QBs to the pocket and not letting them break loose at a high rate. Not one QB they've faced this year has gone over his carry prop.

Bills @ Texans Week 5 Player Prop

James Cook Under 14.5 Carries

  • Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
  • My Projection: 12.5

In Week 1, Cook had 19 carries on a 68% rush share and 60% snap rate, but in the three games since then he has had 11, 11, and nine carries with a 44% rush share and 52% snap rate.

Why?

Rookie RB Ray Davis—a between-the-tackles complement to Cook—has emerged. In Week 1, he had just three carries with an 11% rush share and 10% snap rate. But since Week 2, he's had nine, seven, and seven carries on a 33% rush share and 22% snap rate.

On the one hand, I don't know if the split we've seen between Cook and Davis over the past few weeks is representative of what we'll see against the Texans. In Weeks 2-3 the Bills enjoyed 31-10 and 47-10 victories, and last week they suffered a 35-10 loss. It's possible that Davis got most of his carries over the past few games simply because of the skewed game script. Of his 23 carries since Week 2, all but five of them came in the second half, when the Bills were either leading or trailing by at least three TDs.

On the other hand, Cook has been a rather splits-based rusher since assuming the No. 1 RB role for the Bills last year. In his 12 home games since 2023—all of them as favorites—Cook has averaged 16.1 carries and gone over 14.5 attempts seven times. In his 11 games outside of Buffalo in that span, Cook has 11.8 carries and has exceeded 14.5 attempts just thrice.

Given that the spread is currently a pick'em at Circa, the Bills might not have the opportunity to establish the ground game on the road this week against the Texans.

49ers vs. Cardinals Week 5 Player Prop

Deebo Samuel Under 15.5 Rushing Yards

  • Odds: -115 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 12.7

It's always scary taking the under on any Samuel prop because he has the ability to turn any touch—reception or carry—into a long gain with his playmaking ability.

But the numbers speak for themselves.

Last year, Samuel went over 15.5 yards rushing in just five of 18 games.

This year, he has done it in one of three—and that was in Week 1, when the team arguably didn't know what it had in RB Jordan Mason and so might've been more inclined to give Samuel a larger rushing workload (eight carries). Since then, he has seen just two carries in each game.

In two games against defensive HC Jonathan Gannon's Cardinals last year, Samuel had six and 11 yards rushing, and this year the two WRs with rushing yardage props to face the Cardinals have both gone under.

The 49ers are large -7.5 home favorites, so they might have a diminished need to use Samuel much as a runner.

Bears vs. Panthers Week 5 Player Prop

Roschon Johnson Under 1.5 Receptions

  • Odds: +110 (BetMGM)
  • My Projection: 1.2

Last year Johnson was a solid receiver with 34 catches on 40 targets in 15 games. And in Week 3, he converted five targets into four receptions as the replacement for pass-catching RB Travis Homer (finger, IR).

But last week the Bears decided to emphasize No. 1 RB D'Andre Swift as an all-around three-down player, which resulted for him in a season-high 62% route rate, 33% target share, and 44% route rate.

Naturally, the offensive focus on Swift also caused a sharp week-over-week decline for Johnson as a receiver.

  • Week 3: 38% route rate | 9% target share | 19% target rate | four receptions
  • Week 4: 27% route rate | 0% target share | 0% target rate | zero receptions

The thesis here is simple. The Bears gave Johnson a sizable workload as a receiver in Week 3, and they lost. Leading up to Week 4, they made the decision to feature Swift more, Johnson consequently did nothing, and the team won. Given the success they just had, I expect them to attempt to follow the same formula now.

The Bears enter Week 5 as -4 home favorites, and the Panthers no longer have DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR) and could also be without DT Shy Tuttle (foot) and LBs Shaq Thompson (Achilles) and Josey Jewell (hamstring, groin).

Given the situation, the Bears could have a run-heavy game script that largely limits the need to throw to RBs—and when they do use a back in the pass game that guy will probably be Swift, who last week had 7-72-0 receiving on seven targets.

Browns @ Commanders Week 5 Player Prop

Amari Cooper Anytime TD

  • Odds: +230 (FanDuel)
  • My Projection: 0.41 TDs | +188.4 Odds to Score

Cooper is one of my Week 5 WR fantasy favorites, despite the fact that he has massively disappointed this year with no more than 35 scoreless yards in three of four games.

But in Week 3 he did have a 7-86-2 receiving performance, and in Week 4 he was close to having two more TDs, but, alas … sheesh.

Still, for the season he has a 95% route rate and 25% target share, so the underlying data is encouraging. With eight-plus targets in every game, Cooper always has a chance to find the end zone.

And it helps that this week he's going against the Commanders, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.344, per RBs Don't Matter). They're yet to face an alpha/No. 1 WR who hasn't scored against them.

Cooper is no longer a true alpha, but he's still the top receiver within his offense, and for Week 5 that should be good enough.

At +230, Cooper has a 30.3% implied probability of scoring a TD this weekend (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think his true odds are closer to 35%.