2023-24 NFL Playoff Picture. The 49ers are slight favorites in Super Bowl 58.

Honestly speaking, I'm not that surprised by the results.

After going through the Wild Card round, debating about home-field advantage, and regular season rankings, the Conference Championship games were a best-of-one situation. We got the best four teams going into each contest, and we got the best two out of them.

Sure, we can argue how bad the Kansas City Chiefs' WRs have been but they have Patrick Mahomes. Brock Purdy has the second-lowest adjusted completion percentage of any QB in the playoffs. It doesn't matter. He's going to Vegas while everyone else goes on vacation.

So, here we are.

The ‘guy that dragged his team to the Super Bowl’ against the ‘guy getting dragged by his team to the Super Bowl'. That contrast alone makes the matchup compelling. So, let's dig into the teams. 

2024 NFL Playoff Picture

Before we look ahead, let's take a quick look back at how we got to this point.

Here’s a breakdown of the playoff picture and where every playoff-bound team stands entering the final game of the 2023 season.

NFL Playoff Dates & Schedule

Wild Card Round

• Browns at Texans - Jan 13th at 4:30 EST
• Miami at Kansas City - Jan 13th at 8:00 EST
• Steelers at Bills - Jan 14th at 1:00 EST
• Packers at Cowboys - Jan 14th at 4:30 EST
• Rams at Lions - Jan 14th at 8:15 EST
• Eagles at Buccaneers - Jan 15th at 8:00 EST

Divisional Round

• Texans at Ravens - Jan 20th at 4:30 EST
• Packers at 49ers - Jan 20th at 8:15 EST
• Buccaneers at Lions - Jan 21st at 3:00 EST
• Chiefs at Bills - Jan 21st at 6:30 EST

Conference Championships

• Chiefs at Ravens - Jan 28th at 3:00 EST
• Lions at 49ers - Jan 28th at 6:30 EST

Super Bowl

• 49ers at Chiefs (N) - Feb 11th at 6:30 EST
  • N - game will be played at a neutral site

Current NFL Standings

• y – division leader
• point differential - difference between points allowed and points scored by a single team

NFC Playoff Picture

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49ers

• Record: 14-5
• Next Opponent: at Chiefs (N)
• Odds to win Super Bowl: -130

NFC Playoff Scenarios

49ers

 Lost in all of the fourth-down discourse surrounding the Lions was the 49ers' incessant approach to play-calling. Kyle Shanahan never let the scoreboard dictate the types of plays he would relay to Brock Purdy. By their in-game passing rates, he never wavered.

• Down by 2 scores: +1.4% (pass rate over expectation)
• Within 1 score: +1.2%

And he was (mostly) right to do it. 

We can nitpick him crashing Christian McCaffrey into the teeth of the Lions' defense on first and second down on Detroit's side of the field. But Purdy tied for the highest passing success rate of the four QBs on early downs when he did sling it. And an explosive from CMC when they needed it most made it all worth while. Plus, even if San Francisco found themselves in a long down-and-distance situation, their QB could scramble to keep drives alive. 

Shanahan weaponized every aspect of that offense to finally get over the conference title hump. Now, they're back in the big game.

Purdy against DC Steve Spagnuolo will be an instant classic. We just watched the Chiefs' defense keep Lamar Jackson in check on the ground and bait him into poor throws for four quarters. With the 49ers' defense being something of a liability, the former Mr. Irrelevant will have to be Mr. Perfect to hoist a Lombardi trophy after it's all said and done.

AFC Playoff Picture

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Chiefs

• Record: 14-6
• Next Opponent: vs 49ers
• Odds to win Super Bowl: +110

AFC Scenarios

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes really is underrated.

As I mentioned earlier, there's no debate he's dragged an offense headlined by an older, injured TE and a rookie WR (that didn't see more than 60.0% of the snaps until Week 8) to the Super Bowl. His postseason stats would win MVP on their own.

And yet, folks are arguing about how much air time celebrities off the field are getting. Others would rank KC's defense over No. 15 as the reason why they've come this far.

Regardless, we're witnessing greatness. But Mahomes wasn't on his own against the Ravens.

Hopefully, Travis Kelce didn't save his best performance for last. He hadn't crossed the century mark in single-game receiving yards since Week 7 and hadn't found the end zone in back-to-back contests since Week 2. But playoff Kelce is a different animal.

Through the course of breaking Jerry Rice's postseason record, Kelce has the fourth-highest target share of any pass-catcher in the playoffs. Only Romeo Doubs and Mike Evans have had a greater share of their team's air yards, and we know they both operate downfield. Kelce's connection with Mahomes is like Brady-Gronk Part II.

Let's see if it holds one more game.

Sam LaPorta (13-97-0) found plenty of holes in the 49ers' defense, and Detroit's passing game also hinged on a slot WR. San Francisco's defensive front will make it harder on Mahomes, but as we should've known, we can never count him out.

Teams Eliminated from Playoff Contention

AFC

• New England Patriots
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Tennessee Titans
• New York Jets
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Denver Broncos
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Indianapolis Colts
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Cleveland Browns
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Miami Dolphins
• Houston Texans
• Buffalo Bills
• Baltimore Ravens

NFC

• Carolina Panthers
• Arizona Cardinals
• Washington Commanders
• New York Giants
• Chicago Bears
• Seattle Seahawks
• New Orleans Saints
• Minnesota Vikings
• Atlanta Falcons
• Dallas Cowboys
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Los Angles Rams
• Green Bay Packers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Detroit Lions

How Do the NFL Playoffs Work?

The playoffs are a three-week, single-elimination series of games to determine who will play in the Super Bowl.

Teams from each conference will compete each week, and the squad without a loss will represent either the AFC or NFC in the final game of the NFL season.

How Many Teams Get a First-Round Bye in the NFL Playoffs?

At the end of the regular season, the two No. 1 seeds (one from each conference) will earn a first-round bye to start the playoffs.

The bye allows them to skip the Wild Card round, get an extra week of rest, and play in the Divisional matchups the following week.

How Many Teams Make the NFL Playoffs?

There are 14 total playoff spots evenly split between the two conferences. The No. 1 seeds go to the teams from the AFC and NFC with the best record in the standings (with a set of tiebreaking procedures if overall records are the same). The league then awards the remaining division winners with a slot. Accordingly, the final six playoff berths (three from each conference) go to the Wild Card teams. These are the franchises with the best records outside of the division winners.