NFL Preseason betting is a little bit like navigating a minefield – without a map or metal detector. You take small steps, look for random bits of intel, and just hope luck is on your side.

OK. Maybe it’s not that bleak. The truth is, there is often some great value to be found in the preseason betting streets. Teams are constantly giving out tidbits of information about lineup decisions and game plans, and it’s hard for sportsbooks to determine the important news from the bluster.

Given that the NFL is still ripe with veteran coaches and retreads we also have some pretty extensive preseason records to work off of, which can give us nice clues as to which teams may be more prone to outperform (or disappoint) in preseason action.

I’ve listed my favorite games to target for Week 2 of the 2024 NFL preseason below. Just given how preseason news tends to flow more freely as we get closer to game time I’ll also be adding more bets as the week rolls around, including a full update on Friday for the two games on Sunday. 

Let’s dive in and get our preseason bets on.

New England Patriots -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (36.0)

Both of these teams grabbed wins in Week 1 of the preseason. The Eagles downed the Ravens 16-13 on the road while the Patriots trounced the Panthers 17-3 at home. Philadelphia got a decent effort from Kenny Pickett (14 of 22 for 89 yards and a touchdown) but didn’t play Jalen Hurts at all. He’s not expected to play in Week 2 either. 

New England inserted four QBs into their Week 1 game as Drake Maye, Bailey Zappe, Jacoby Brissett, and Joe Milton all took snaps. 

Betting Breakdown

Nick Sirianni is now 2-5-1 ATS in the preseason as a head coach. Pickett is likely to play a decent chunk in this game once again, but even if he moves the ball a bit I wouldn’t look to him to put the Eagles up multiple scores.

He averaged a paltry 4.04 YPA in the first game and the Eagles have a lot of running backs available they’ll want to work in. They’ll also be running into New England’s strength on defense who allowed 3.3 YPC last season which was tops in the NFL. 

I don’t expect New England to run away with this game either. Maye is expected to play more which may not be helpful for the Patriots' chances. Maye has reportedly had issues with the Eagles' defense in joint practices.

The saving grace for New England (and why I would still take them in this game) is that they’ll have a decided edge when both teams move away from their first and second-team defenses.

Bailey Zappe is an experienced QB who has worked against first-team defenses plenty of times and is fighting for a roster spot with the rookie Milton, who has impressed all training camp. 

The Eagles also aren’t deep at WR so when the starters come out (and by starters I mean second-teamers) it’s going to leave third-string QB Tanner McKee on an island of sorts. McKee was 6 of 16 for 39 yards in Week 1. 

The under at 36.0 points also looks playable and combining it with the Patriots moneyline gets you in the range of +210 to +220 at most sportsbooks. 

From a moneyline/spread perspective, I also like the idea of looking to take the Patriots in-game on a live bet (either spread or ML) preferably once Maye and Pickett come out. 

Bet

  • Patriots -2.5 or Patriots Live Spread or ML (in-game, once Maye is gone) 

Saturday NFL Preseason Bets

Minnesota +3.5 at Cleveland -3.5 (36.5)

The big news for this game is the injury to J.J. McCarthy (out for the season), which is likely to change the preseason outlook for Minnesota entirely. His development was by far the biggest preseason storyline for this team and undoubtedly what the coaching staff had been game-planning around all off-season.

Now that he’s unavailable (and starting WR Jordan Addison is hurt) I suspect the goal will be to protect Darnold and just make sure everyone else is healthy for Week 1. 

Overall, the Browns QB depth should be able to bring this game for them. The QB3-QB4 combo of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Tyler Huntley is far from daunting but also brings in a lot of experience. They’ve both started games in the regular season and are talented enough to take advantage of third and fourth-string defenses. Thompson-Robinson led the Browns to a nice win in Week 1 of preseason last year and Huntley is on a veteran minimum contract and needs to do something to impress.

On the flip side, Minnesota will also now have to rely on Jaren Hall for a bigger portion of this game, potentially the entire second half. He went 7 for 16 and averaged under 4.0 yards per attempt in Game 1. 

The Vikings have now lost five of the seven preseason games they have played under Kevin O’Connell by six or more points and needed a baller game from a rookie QB just to squeak out a one-point win last week. Overall, O’Connell has been one of the best head coaches to bet against in the fake season and now sports a 1-5 lifetime ATS preseason record.

I don’t typically like playing bigger favorites this time of year but I suspect we may see a more subdued Vikings team in Week 2 and a team that is just looking to put this week and the entire preseason behind them as fast as possible. On the other side, the Browns should be motivated after getting trounced in Week 1 by the Packers. They don’t typically don’t like to play their starters under Kevin Stefanski but have still managed a 5-3-1 ATS preseason record since he took over as head coach.

I’m less bullish about the total but the under 36.5 is also a play. Pairing it with the Browns Money Line also makes a lot of sense as Cleveland is likely to be running the ball with DTR and Huntley plenty, if up late. 

Bets

  • Cleveland -3.5 -110 / Browns ML + Under 36.5 +191

Cincinnati Bengals +6.0 at Chicago Bears -6.0 (36.5)

I get why the Bears are big favorites here. The Bengals are likely to sit most of if not all of their starters. Additionally, Matt Eberflus is someone who likes to strut his stuff when it matters least and enters this game 5-2 ATS in the preseason since taking over as head coach for the Bears. 

Still, I'm hesitant to think that the Bears will cruise to an easy romp win again. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor always has his team prepared (no matter the situation) and while he only sports a 6-6 career ATS preseason record, with most of the losses being close. Since 2021, the Bengals have also only lost two preseason games by more than six points.

I would also suggest that a lot of Taylor’s preseason ATS record is likely due to Cincinnati being somewhat overvalued this time of year just based on how good they have been in the regular season. However, with them now getting a full 6.0 points on the spread, against a team coming off a blowout win against Buffalo, it does feel like the roles have now been reversed and the Bengals may be a touch underrated. 

If we’re being honest, the Bills gave a pretty listless effort against Caleb Williams in Week 1 and likely got caught off guard by a Bears team who had the advantage of playing the week prior.

Additionally, while Williams looked good on a couple of plays, it’s not something I would place much value on heading into this week. For me, it’s just as likely he flops in Week 2 – as he has another successful outing – especially with an experienced DC in Lou Ararumo on the other side.

The bottom line is that I’m just not a fan of taking any team to cover 6.0 points in preseason, especially not one going up against a disciplined team like the Bengals.

Given how scrappy Cincinnati tends to play this time of year, I’m happy to take the points and hope Williams and the Bears' third preseason game is a little more subdued. 

Bet

  • Bengals +6.0 (-110)

Jaguars -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

All things considered, these are two teams who don’t have any need to risk their big-name players – and, by all indications, the starters for both sides will sit on Saturday. However, the Jaguars undoubtedly have a little more reason to make this game as competitive as possible as they do have a backup QB battle brewing between Mac Jones and C.J. Beatheard that needs deciding. 

In Week 1, Jacksonville only played three QBs (with Lawrence taking a few snaps before giving way) and that trend should continue in Week 2 as the Jaguars want to evaluate their backup situation and give both men playing time. That should give them a distinct advantage over the Buccaneers who are countering with a less experienced duo in Kyle Trask and John Wolford, a combo who accounted for zero TD passes in Week 1.

After last week's 26-13 win over the Chiefs, the Jaguars have also now scored 25+ points in four consecutive preseason games (and won/covered in all those games as well). Meanwhile, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has been profitable to bet against around this time of year, as he sports a lifetime 9-13 preseason record.

With the spread staying under 3.0, it feels like the Jaguars are being a little undervalued and the correct side to back in this battle of Florida.

Preseason Week 2 Sunday Bet

San Francisco 49ers ML (+100; FanDuel)

The line on this game is all over the place as of writing. DraftKings has the 49ers as favorites but Fanduel has them as +1.5 point underdogs and at +100 on the moneyline. 

Both of these teams have plans to play their starters for a little and then give way to backups, but considering the 49ers' solid depth, and the records of these two coaches, it's San Francisco I have more faith in from a betting perspective in Week 2.

Since 2019, Kyle Shanahan is 4-2 straight up in home preseason games and is 11-9-1, overall, ATS. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s a better record than his counterpart Dennis Allen, who is just 9-9 ATS and 7-11 straight up in the preseason. And yes, it’s preseason, and none of this matters, but if you give me even odds and ask me to pick between teams led by these two coaches, I’m going to choose to avoid the Allen-led team more times than not.

It’s likely that the Spencer Rattler buzz is keeping this line closer than it normally would be.  Rattler looked fine in leading the Saints to a last-minute win in Week 1, but the play of backups in the preseason can fluctuate wildly from week to week, and right now, the 49ers are the deeper and less injured squad.

As long as you’re getting the 49ers as underdogs there is likely a little value in taking them to win this Sunday, straight up. 

Week 2 Preseason Bets

  • Patriots -2.5 (-110) 0.8 units
  • Patriots ML + Under 36.0 (+218) 0.2 units
  • Bengals +6.0 (-110) 1.0 unit
  • Cleveland -3.5 (-110) 0.8 units
  • Browns ML + Under 36.5 (+191) 0.2 units