There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

The sharps added two more wins to the ledger in the Conference Championships, hitting the under in Chiefs-Ravens and the over in Lions-49ers. It brings our record to 57-41-3 for the year and pushes our win rate above 58%. We've already locked in a profitable season, but let’s look to end things on a high note.

Let's dive into what the pros are seeing for Super Bowl LVIII.

49ers (-2.0) at Chiefs (-105; DraftKings)

  • Opening Line: 49ers -2.5
  • Target Range: 49ers -2.5 or better

It’s the final Sharp Report of the year, and it’s been a great season. That said, we’ve still got work to do. While the Super Bowl represents a tremendous event, it’s not one where the sharps typically have a huge input. Their edge decreases as the season progresses and the lines get sharper, and their money doesn’t mean as much to the sportsbooks in the year's final game. The public will overwhelm the oddsmakers with the biggest handle of the year between all the various sides, props, and SGPs.

Unsurprisingly, most of the public money has sided with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Kansas City has looked impressive during the postseason, and they still have the best player in the league in Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes

Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

That said, there’s no doubt that the 49ers have been the better team throughout the full season. The gap between the two teams has shrunk, but the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings had the 49ers as nearly five points better than the Chiefs heading into the Conference Championships.

It’s been a bumpy ride for the 49ers, but what they did in the second half vs. Detroit was a reminder of how dominant their offense has been all season. They led the league in EPA/play by a wide margin, with Brock Purdy leading all quarterbacks in every efficiency metric possible. The Lions made a few mistakes that opened the door for San Francisco, and they kicked the door off the hinges.

Meanwhile, questions about Kansas City’s offense persist. They managed to upset the Ravens in Baltimore during the AFC Championship – a super-impressive win – but it was due more to the defense than Mahomes and company. They were merely 11th in EPA/play offensively during the regular season, and they’re seventh in that department during the postseason.

Their rushing offense has been the biggest disappointment, ranking 11th out of the 14 postseason squads in EPA. That doesn’t bode well for a matchup vs. the 49ers, who have been far more vulnerable defensively on the ground than through the air.

The 49ers are first in rushing EPA during the playoffs, and the Chiefs defense has been vulnerable on the ground all year. Why the Ravens didn’t choose to attack the Chiefs that way is a major head-scratcher, but don’t expect Kyle Shanahan to make the same mistake.

Despite the massive public interest in the Chiefs, this number has started to work its way back towards San Francisco. The public brought this number down to 49ers -1.5 after the line was released, but those 1.5s are all but gone. The spread is back up to -2.0 at most locations, and there’s even a -2.5 at FanDuel.

That reeks of sharp support for the favorites, and that’s the side I’m backing as well. The Chiefs may have the edge at quarterback, but they’re outmanned at virtually every other position across the board.

You can tail the 49ers at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:

49ers at Chiefs Over 47.5 (-110; BetMGM)

  • Opening Total: 47.5
  • Target Range: Over 47.5 or better

Unlike the spread, we’ve seen almost no movement on the total. This number opened up at 47.5 and has stayed pretty firmly at that figure for two weeks.

Most of the bets and dollars in this matchup have sided with the under. It’s received 53% of the tickets and 64% of the dollars (per the Action Network), so the biggest bets have landed on the under.

That said, some sharp support has been tracked on the over. The total has been pushed up to 48.0 on PointsBet, so it’s possible that there could be some movement in that direction before kickoff.

I locked in a play on the over into the NFL Bet Tracker, but if I could take that back, I would consider it. Ultimately, this number seems pretty spot on.

CMC

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) is congratulated after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the second half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

I do think both of these teams will be able to move the ball. The Chiefs’ defense looked fantastic vs. the Ravens, but they’ve been a massive run funnel all season. The 49ers have the best running back in football and a coach who is not afraid to give him 25 touches in this matchup.

Christian McCaffrey has barely left the field during the postseason. He played on 98% of the team’s offensive snaps in the Divisional Round and 92% during the Conference Championship. Backup RB Elijah Mitchell has just four carries during the playoffs, and three of them came on the team’s final drive vs. the Lions.

Expect McCaffrey to be extremely busy in this matchup, and he should produce excellent results. The over on all of his props are in play, and I think he’s the favorite to win MVP if the 49ers win the game.

The Chiefs should be able to move the ball as well. In addition to Mahomes, Andy Reid has proven time and again that he can come up with successful game plans with additional time to prepare. Isiah Pacheco has also proved a capable runner, even if he hasn’t been at his most efficient during the playoffs.

While I expect both teams to score, the fact that the ground game could be heavily featured on both sides means the drives will be more methodical. You need some big plays to hit the over on 47.5, and I’m not sure if we’ll get that with these two teams.

I would still back the over if forced to pick a side, but there are better ways to invest in this contest.

Money