NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Line Movement for Wild Card Weekend.
There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
We went 2-3 in the final week of the season, dropping us to 51-36-3 for the regular season. That’s not how I wanted to go out, but I’ll certainly take a 58.6% win rate for the year.
Let's dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for Wild Card Weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-110; Caesars)
- Opening Line: Chiefs -3.0
- Target Range: Chiefs -4.5 or better
The weather in Kansas City has gotten a ton of attention this week. The forecast calls for temperatures in the -20s (when factoring in wind chill), with sustained winds of at least 15 miles per hour.
I’m a firm believer that weather in sports betting is overvalued by the public… except in outlier situations. What’s expected to happen in Kansas City on Saturday qualifies as an outlier.
While the weather is an important factor to consider, the Dolphins' injury report might be flying under the radar. They’re extremely banged up on defense. The team has lost their top two pass-rushers – Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel – in back-to-back weeks, and Jalen Phillips remains sidelined. Add in an injury to a depth pass rusher (Cameron Goode), and they’re extremely thin on the edge.
That’s never a good thing, but it’s terrible news when facing Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs may not be as explosive on offense this season, but they still employ the unquestioned best quarterback in football.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) in introduced prior a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Making matters worse, the Dolphins are also dealing with a critical absence in the secondary. Xavien Howard has already been ruled out vs. the Chiefs, so Mahomes should have plenty of opportunities to pick the Dolphins apart through the air.
It'd be fair to question their resume even if the Dolphins were at full strength. They’ve beaten up on the worst teams in football, but their record is lacking against competent squads. They’re just 1-5 against this year’s postseason squads, including a loss to the Chiefs in Germany.
The sharps have been all over the Chiefs this week, driving them up from -3.0 to -4.5. That’s one of the most significant moves of the week, and it occurred around the key numbers of three and four. I have a play on the Chiefs at -4.0 in the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker – and some of my colleagues have even better numbers – but I still think you can play them at -4.5.
You can tail the -4.5 at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up below for a new account!
Green Bay Packers (+7.0) at Dallas Cowboys (-108; DraftKings)
- Opening Line: Packers +7.0
- Target Range: Packers +7.0 or better
Here’s a game where the sharps and I disagree. I’ve locked in a play on the Cowboys, but the pros seem to like the Packers in this spot. This line opened at Cowboys -7.0 and moved to Cowboys -7.5, but professional action has driven the spread back down to 7.0.
It’s no secret that the Cowboys have been a wagon at home this season. They’ve posted an 8-0 record, and they’re 6-2 against the spread. They’re also outscoring opponents by an average of 21.5 points per game in Dallas – the top mark in the league – and they’re covering the spread by the largest margin as well.
However, the Cowboys have never had problems racking up wins during the regular season. This is their third-straight 12-win campaign, and they’ve made the postseason in six of the past 10 years. The problem has been getting over the hump in the playoffs, with Dak Prescott posting a 1-5 ATS record during the postseason.
I tend not to believe in things like “postseason curses.” That said, there’s no denying that the lights have historically been too bright for Prescott in January.
Jordan Love will be making his first postseason start – something that historically has not led to betting success – but he’s played as well as anyone down the stretch. He’s third in EPA + CPOE composite since Week 9, trailing only Prescott and Brock Purdy. He led the Packers to six wins in their past eight games despite dealing with some injuries in his receiving corps.
If Love can maintain that level of success, this team will be a tough out for anyone. Getting back guys like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs would certainly help, especially against a strong Cowboys defense.
If you are interested in the Packers, you’d ideally be able to get them at +7.5 at some point before kickoff. However, with the sharp interest in Green Bay, I don’t think that will happen.
Los Angeles Rams (+3.0) at Detroit Lions (-104; FanDuel)
- Opening Line: Rams +4.0
- Target Range: Rams +3.0 or better
Rams-Lions has an excellent chance to be the game of the week. Not only is there just a three-point spread, but the total on this game is the highest on the slate. While other teams deal with weather concerns, these squads will be playing in the comfort of the Ford Field dome.
As Matt Freedman covered in our Monday Betting Life newsletter, indoor overs have been a thing during the postseason. They’ve gone 31-17, and I’ve already grabbed the over on 52.0 points. Expect there to be plenty of scoring in this matchup.
Both of these teams know how to put points on the scoreboard. While the Lions offense has been better over the full season, you could make a strong case that the Rams are the better unit right now. Since getting back Kyren Williams in Week 12 – and excluding last week’s game where the team rested their starters – they’re fourth in the league in EPA/play. They scored 36 points against Cleveland’s No. 1 ranked defense and 31 points in Baltimore against the No. 2 defense in football.
If they can do that against elite stop units, they should have a field day vs. the Lions. Detroit’s secondary has been a major liability over the second half of the year. They have played better down the stretch, but shutting down Nick Mullens isn’t all that impressive. Overall, they’re just 30th in dropback EPA since Week 7.
The Lions should be able to put up some points of their own, but the Rams have been a bit more effective defensively. After all, a defense can only be so bad with Aaron Donald lining up on the interior.
With the Rams grading out as the better team offensively and defensively, you can see why the sharps would like the Rams plus the points. As long as you can get a full field goal, the Rams seem like the play in this matchup.
You can tail the Rams at +3 at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans Over 44.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Opening Total: 43.5
- Target Range: Over 44.5 or better
Given how good the Browns’ defense is, you’d think they’d be one of the best under teams in football. That may have been true early in the year when the team was rolling out Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, but it’s not the case now. In fact, the Browns are tied for the most overs in football this season with 11.
Is it possible that the Browns defense is overrated? Maybe, but I’d argue that it has more to do with the offense being underrated. That’s particularly true since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback. What he’s been able to do in Cleveland is nothing short of miraculous. He’s led the team to a 4-1 record, averaging more than 320 passing yards per game in the process. His efficiency has left a bit to be desired – especially his eight interceptions – but he’s had no issues putting points on the scoreboard.
Dec 28, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws a pass against the New York Jets during the first half at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
On the other side, the Texans have had a potent offense basically all season. C.J. Stroud turned in one of the greatest rookie seasons in the history of the quarterback position, racking up 4,108 yards and 26 total touchdowns in 15 games.
While first-time playoff quarterbacks tend to struggle, Stroud has a track record of showing up in the biggest spots. He was phenomenal in a must-win game vs. the Colts in Week 18, and he lit up a Georgia defense loaded with future NFL players in the CFB playoff.
Additionally, this game being played in Houston should help with scoring. Like the game in Detroit, these two offenses should be relatively comfortable playing inside NRG Stadium.
The pros have taken some of the value out of this over by pushing it above the key number of 44.0. Still, don’t be surprised if there’s more scoring than expected in the first game of the postseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Under 35.5 (-105; FanDuel)
- Opening Total: 43.0
- Target Range: Under 35.5 or better
The Bills weren’t even a lock to make the playoffs before the start of Week 18, but they ended up beating the Dolphins to secure the AFC East crown and No. 2 spot in the conference. Their reward is home-field advantage through at least the first two rounds.
While I’m sure the Bills are happy to be playing in Buffalo, the elements will be a major factor on Sunday. Some of the weather reports are downright apocalyptic:
The Steelers are also a quintessential under team. They’ve had offensive issues for most of the season, although Mason Rudolph has given them a shot in the arm over the past three weeks. Rudolph’s numbers are excellent on the surface, but they’ve come against the Bengals, Seahawks, and Ravens backups. Given what we’ve seen from Rudolph in the past, he could turn back into a pumpkin against the Bills.
Buffalo has their own offensive issues, especially when it comes to turnovers. Josh Allen does a lot of incredible things on a football field, but he’s also very prone to turnovers. Only Sam Howell had more interceptions this season, so expect Allen to give away at least one possession in this matchup.
If the Bills build up a lead, they have no problem leaning on the run game under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. They’ve had a Dropback Over Expectation of -9% or lower in three of their past four games, and the lone exception was last week’s slow-paced game vs. the Dolphins.
Add it all up, and points should be at a premium in this spot. This is another spot where the line has already moved significantly – the total has dipped by nearly eight full points – but the offenses have a lot of factors working against them.
