One of the best things about sports betting is that you don’t have to go it alone.
There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at FantasyLife.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 3.
Texans at Jaguars
- Opening Line: Jaguars -7.0
- Current Line: Jaguars -8.5
The Texans are going through the growing pains associated with a rookie quarterback. They’ve lost each of their first two games this season, and neither has been particularly close. They lost by 16 points in Week 1 vs. the Ravens, and they followed that up with an 11-point home loss to the Colts.
Ultimately, the Texans have failed to cover the spread in either contest. Historically, 0-2 ATS teams tend to provide some betting value. Teams that are 0-2 straight up and against the spread have gone 56-37 ATS in Week 3, good for a +17.4% return on investment.
The spreads on those squads tend to become inflated, providing buy-low opportunities for those willing to go against the grain.
We’re seeing that with the Texans in this matchup. The line was initially listed at -7.0, but it’s up to -8.5. The Jaguars haven’t exactly looked like a juggernaut to start the year so that extra 1.5 points is based purely on the Texans’ struggles.
However, things haven’t been as bad for the Texans as their results might suggest. They’re 29th in scoring differential through two weeks, but they’re actually 14th in yardage differential. The Texans might not be a good team, but they’ve managed to keep up with their opponents when it comes to moving the ball. They simply haven’t had good results when it comes to scoring.
The sharps seem happy to grab the points with Houston in this spot. They’ve received just 45% of the bets, but those bets have accounted for 87% of the dollars (per the Action Network). That’s one of the largest discrepancies of the week.
This number has already dropped to 8.0 at a few locations, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it continued to move before kickoff.
Falcons at Lions
- Opening Line: Lions -5.0
- Current Line: Lions -3.0
Are you starting to believe in the Falcons? They’re 2-0 to start the year, and they’ve had solid results on both sides of the ball. Overall, they’re seventh in scoring differential and eighth in yardage differential, albeit against subpar competition.
The question is – can they keep it up vs. the Lions?
The sharps believe the answer is yet. This number was Lions -5.0 on the lookahead line, and it opened at Lions -3.5 on Sunday. However, the sharps have bet it down to 3.0.
Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
3.5 to 3.0 might not feel like a huge difference, but it’s the most critical half-point in all of sports betting. More games end on three than any other number, so it is easily the most key of all the key numbers. In other words, the sportsbooks moving the Lions from 3.5 to 3.0 is a huge deal.
Atlanta may not look like a conventional 2023 offense. They lean heavily on their run game, while quarterback Desmond Ridder isn’t asked to do much with his arm. That’s probably not a great formula for winning the Super Bowl, but it can still make you a competitive squad.
Their biggest strength has been their defense. Their performance in Week 1 against a rookie quarterback might not move the needle, but they were outstanding once again against the Packers in Week 2. Green Bay lit up the Bears for 38 points in Week 1, but Atlanta held them to 224 yards of total offense. Overall, they’ve allowed the third-fewest yards per game this season.
The Lions entered the year with bigger expectations, but they’ve struggled through the first two weeks. The sharps seem happy to grab the points in this spot, and I’m with them.
Colts at Ravens
- Opening Line: Ravens -7.5
- Current Line: Ravens -8.5
Most of the attention on this game will revolve around the Colts’ quarterback situation. Anthony Richardson has been ruled out after suffering a concussion in Week 2, which means Gardner Minshew will draw the start vs. the Ravens.
That said, I don’t think that’s much of a downgrade. Minshew is one of the best backups in football. He’s averaged a respectable 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt for his career, and he racked up 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt in relief of Richardson last week.
His record as a starter isn’t great, but not many quarterbacks could’ve won games with the talent he was surrounded with in Jacksonville.
The injury issues for the Ravens might not be as prominent in the eyes of the public, but that’s the real story in this matchup. They’ve ruled out a TON of key starters for Week 3:
In short, the team is now down two starters on the offensive line, two defensive backs, two running backs, a receiver, and a pass rusher. That is a lot to overcome. The Ravens managed to get the job done without most of those players last week, but the Bengals are clearly dealing with some issues of their own.
The team will still have Lamar Jackson, but this has not been the time to target him from a betting perspective. He’s a dreadful 11-20 ATS as a home favorite for his career (including playoffs), including 6-16 when laying single digits.
Add it all up, and the sharps love the Colts in this spot. They’ve received 80% of the dollars on just 32% of the bets, so this is setting up as a classic “sharps vs. squares” showdown. I know which side I prefer to be on.
Patriots at Jets
- Opening Total: 38.5
- Current Total: 36.5
The bookmakers can’t set this line low enough. The total opened at just 38.5, but it’s seen a further two-point decrease throughout the week. No one wants anything to do with these two offenses, and I certainly don’t blame them.
On one side, you have Zach Wilson. Wilson was far from the only flaw that the Jets had on Sunday, but he was undoubtedly the most glaring. He completed less than 45% of his passes for 170 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.
The only positive for Wilson was a 68-yard touchdown to Garrett Wilson, and the receiver did most of the work on that play.
Sep 17, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) throws a pass in the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Part of Wilson’s struggles can be attributed to the Cowboys’ ferocious defense, but it’s not like this was an outlier. Wilson has struggled his entire NFL career, leading to benching him for the equally unimpressive Mike White in 2022.
Things might look a touch prettier against the Patriots, but it’s hard to expect much improvement.
The Patriots’ offense has also looked like a disaster. They managed just three points in the first three quarters vs. the Dolphins in Week 2, so they didn’t move the ball until it was basically too late.
There was optimism that Mac Jones would turn things around with Bill O’Brien back in town to run the offense, but that has not happened yet. Jones’ counting stats are fine – 547 yards and four touchdowns – but he leads the league in attempts. Overall, his 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt are worse than his marks from his first two seasons.
The Jets’ defense may have struggled vs. Dallas, but they’re still expected to be outstanding. It doesn’t feel like the week for Jones and company to put it all together.
If the Jets can slow down the Patriots, they’ll look to minimize the mistakes on offense. Things didn’t get out of control for Wilson against Dallas until the team was forced into obvious passing situations in the fourth quarter. If this game stays competitive, the Jets’ offense should lean heavily on the running game.
Add it all up, and points should be at a premium in this matchup.
Titans at Browns
- Opening Total: 41.5
- Current Total: 39.5
This is another matchup where points should be hard to come by. Both of these squads have looked excellent defensively to start the year.
Let’s start with the Browns. They held the Bengals to just three points in Week 1 and followed that up with an impressive showing vs. the Steelers. Pittsburgh did score 26 points in that contest, but two of their scores were of the defensive variety. That means the Browns’ defense has allowed just 15 points through eight quarters of football.
The Titans managed just five field goals against a similarly strong unit in Week 1, with Ryan Tannehill struggling mightily. He bounced back with a strong performance vs. the Chargers, but LA’s defense may be a sieve. When you remember what Tua Tagovailoa did to the Chargers in Week 1, his numbers look far less impressive.
On the other side, the Titans’ defense ranks 11th in points per game through the first two weeks. They haven’t been as impressive from a yardage perspective, but they’ve faced the Saints and Chargers. Those are quality offensive units.
Cleveland’s offense does not qualify as quality, at least with what we’ve seen so far.
DeShaun Watson has yet to show that he’s the same player that he was in Houston, ranking 23rd at the position in Pro Football Focus grade and 30th in EPA + CPOE composite. The only quarterbacks who have been worse than Watson in that metric are Wilson and Justin Fields, and neither of them has a fully guaranteed $230M contract.
Life doesn’t figure to get any easier for Watson with Nick Chubb lost for the year to an injury. It will be up to him to turn the offense around, and at this point, there’s no real reason to believe he can do it.
This is the rare spot where the sharps and public seem to agree. The under has accounted for 71% of the over/under bets and 99% of the dollars. That means the sportsbooks have a ton of liability on the under, and while it’s always scary to be on the other side of the oddsmakers, I think it’s the right side in this matchup.
