One of the best things about sports betting is that you don’t have to go it alone.
There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at FantasyLife.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
The sharp sides crushed in Week 3, going 4-1 on the plays identified in this article. They won with the Texans and Colts as large underdogs and with unders in Patriots-Jets and Titans-Browns.
Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 4.
Buccaneers at Saints
- Opening Line: Saints -5.5
- Current Line: Saints -3.5
The big news in this contest involves the health of Derek Carr. He injured his AC joint last week vs. the Packers, causing him to exit the game in the third quarter. The Saints had established a 17-0 lead at that point, but the team could not hold the lead without him. The Packers rallied for 18 consecutive points in the fourth quarter, securing a one-point win.
Carr’s status for this week is not optimistic. The Friday practice report will be key, but he’s been a DNP through the first two days. He’s likely heading towards a questionable designation, but it's hard to imagine him suiting up if he doesn’t get in a limited practice on Friday.
Sep 24, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Jameis Winston would start if he’s inactive, and he’s certainly capable as far as backup quarterbacks go. That said, he would still be a downgrade. He averaged just 6.2 adjusted yards per attempt last year, tossing four touchdowns with five interceptions, and managed just 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt in relief of Carr vs. the Packers.
The Saints will likely need some production from their quarterback to cover vs. the Buccaneers. Their defense has been solid against the run for most of the year. They allowed 67 rushing yards or fewer in their first two games this season before being gashed by the Eagles in Week 3. The Eagles have arguably the best rushing attack in football, so it’s hard to penalize them too much for that performance.
The Saints’ defense is strong, ranking 10th in the league in EPA/play allowed, but they’ve yet to really be tested. They’ve faced the Titans, Panthers, and Packers, all of which figure to be below average by the end of the year. The Buccaneers are another weak opponent, but they at least have some potent receiving threats in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Overall, the sharps seem happy to grab the points with the Bucs. They’ve received 87% of the dollars on 78% of the bets (via the Action Network), forcing this line down to 3.5. This number will likely dip below three if Carr is inactive, so this feels like the right time to grab Tampa if you’ve yet to do so.
Steelers at Texans
- Opening Line: Steelers -4.5
- Current Line: Steelers -3.0
This is another line that has been on the move. The Steelers were listed as 4.5-point favorites on the lookahead line and opened as three-point favorites on Sunday evening. However, some 2.5s have started to pop up across the industry.
Pittsburgh looked good in their win over the Raiders, but Las Vegas has one of the worst defenses in football. They entered that matchup 31st in EPA/play and are currently 29th in that metric.
The Texans are in the first year of a rebuild, but they’ve been more competitive than expected to start the year. They humbled the Jaguars in Week 3, beating them by 20 points in Jacksonville. Overall, they rank in the top half of the league in yards per game, both offensively and defensively.
C.J. Stroud has been a revelation at quarterback. There were some concerns about how he would translate to the NFL – Ohio State quarterbacks don’t have the greatest track record – but he has been fantastic through his first three starts. He’s averaged 302 passing yards per game with four touchdowns and zero picks, which is virtually unheard of for a rookie quarterback. He ranks fifth in the league in adjusted yards per attempt, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins.
Rookie QBs unsurprisingly struggle to start their careers, so the fact that Stroud has been this good this early is a fantastic sign. He should only continue to improve as he gets more experience, so the Texans may have found themselves a franchise QB.
On the defensive side, the Texans have been more vulnerable against the run than the pass, which bodes well for their matchup vs. the Steelers. Pittsburgh has had massive struggles on their offensive line, so they’ve had virtually no run game to speak of through the first three weeks. If Houston can keep Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in check, I’m not sure if Kenny Pickett is ready to beat them with a huge passing performance.
Broncos at Bears
- Opening Line: Broncos -1.5
- Current Line: Broncos -3.5
The sharps tend to see value in the grossest NFL teams. The lines are often inflated against them in an attempt to entice action, and the sharps are happy to oblige. While the public wants nothing to do with the Bears, the sharps are delighted to grab them +3.5 at home vs. the Broncos.
Sep 24, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs the ball against Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Mike Danna (51) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
From a pure math perspective, the Bears feel like the right side. Making the Bears 3.5-point home underdogs suggests they’re roughly five points worse than the Broncos on a neutral field. The Broncos are almost certainly better than the Bears, but five points is a massive margin. I have this number closer to 2.5, so we’re getting the key number of three basically for free.
The Bears have been nothing short of a disaster this season. Their offense has struggled mightily, while their defense might be the worst in the league. Overall, they’re 31st in EPA/play on both sides of the ball.
That said, the Broncos’ defense might be worse. They’re dead last in EPA/play, and part of that can be attributed to the Dolphins dropping a 70-burger on them last week. However, they also gave up 388 yards to the Commanders in Week 2, which was played in Denver.
This is the type of bet where if you make it, you shouldn’t watch a single second of it. It will be ugly, and there’s a chance that Chicago is just a trainwreck that we should avoid all season. Still, the numbers don’t lie.
Ravens at Browns
- Opening Total: 44.0
- Current Total: 39.5
This is going to be my biggest play of the early season. I love the under in this spot for multiple reasons, and the sharps appear to love it, too. The under has received a whopping 99% of the dollars, which has caused this number to fall like a rock. I expect it to drop another couple of points before kickoff, so it’s an excellent candidate to lock in now.
Both teams are dealing with massive injuries at the moment. For the Browns, it involves quarterback DeShaun Watson. Watson has gotten in two limited practices to start the week, but I’m hearing strong indications that he won’t suit up vs. the Ravens. Even if he does, it’s not like Watson has been a world-beater this season.
Watson showed up in a matchup against the Titans, but Tennessee is a massive pass-funnel defense. They’re fantastic against the run and dreadful against the pass, so it was a spot where Watson needed to succeed. If he didn’t shred the Titans, it would’ve been a massive negative for his outlook moving forward.
On the other side, the Ravens remain one of the most injured teams in football. They were without two offensive linemen, two members of their secondary, two running backs, Odell Beckham Jr., and one of their top pass-rushers last week vs. the Colts. It’s no surprise that Indianapolis ended up winning that contest.
The Ravens might get a few of those players back this week – Justice Hill, Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum, and Marcus Williams have all returned to practice – but they’ll still have some absences. In addition to all the injuries they were already dealing with, David Ojabo and Rashod Bateman picked up knocks vs. the Colts and have yet to practice this week.
Even if the Ravens were at full strength, they would likely struggle to move the ball vs. the Browns. This defense has been the best unit in football to start the season:
The Browns’ success rate on passing plays has been 79.2%, which is on pace to shatter the previous record of 66.4% set by the Buccaneers' legendary defense in 2000. It seems unlikely that they maintain that pace the whole season, but this unit is fantastic.
Add it all up, and points should be at a premium in this matchup.
Falcons at Jaguars (in London)
- Opening Total: 45.5
- Current Total: 43.5
If you’re not excited about watching Trevor Lawrence square off with Bijan Robinson in Andy’s Room, I’m not sure we can be friends anymore. Watching NFL players transform into Pixar characters speaks more to my inner child than just about anything else I can think of. Unless they figure out a way to turn them into Pokemon characters, this is peak nostalgia.
If you’re not a 34-year-old man-child excited about an event meant for children, perhaps I can interest you in the under instead?
The sharps have a clear take on the under, which is responsible for 53% of the dollars on just 36% of the bets in this matchup. This number is down to just 43.0 at some locations, but there are a few 43.5s left.
There hasn’t historically been an edge in targeting unders in early starts. They’re just 10-10 in games starting before 10 a.m. ET, so the early start hasn’t had a huge impact on offense.
However, the Falcons have been a very profitable under squad since the start of last season. They’re 12-8 to the under over that time frame, including 9-3 in their past 12 games.
That can be primarily attributed to the team’s run-heavy approach. The Falcons were dead last in Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) last season, and they’re at -7.01% through three weeks in 2023.
The current spread suggests this game should be close, so expect the Falcons to lean on the run once again. That should shorten the game, which could result in another under.
