Welcome to Week 5 of Betting Life’s NFL Survivor Series! It’s the inimitable Coach Gene Clemons and yours truly, John Laghezza, with our thoughts, takes and picks to help you outwit, outlast, and outplay the competition. Whatever's left of it, that is. 

Laghezza surveys the landscape

The biggest favorites usually make the best Survivor starting point. So who’s laying the heaviest Week 5 wood? Four teams (all at home) enter mid-week implying win rates of two out of three…

  • SF vs ARI: (-370); 78.7% Implied Probability
  • SEA vs NYG: (-290); 74.4% Implied Probability
  • KC vs NO: (-255); 71.8% Implied Probability
  • CHI vs CAR: (-195); 66.1% Implied Probability

And who’s the public on? Four teams aggregate at or near a double-digit selection rate

  • SEA vs NYG: ~35% Selected — Next 3 vs SF, @ ATL, vs BUF
  • SF vs ARI: ~17% Selected — Next 3 @ SEA, vs KC,  vs DAL
  • WAS vs CLE: ~12% Selected — Next 3 @ BAL, vs CAR, vs CHI
  • CHI vs CAR: ~10% Selected — Next 3 vs JAX, BYE, @ WAS

Note: I pull these numbers and aggregate from several sources, including numberfire, SurvivorGrid, and my own projections.

Takeaways:

Most of last week’s favorites wound up taking care of business — though for the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Texans it took a little more excitement than expected. Looking to capitalize on the Cardinals’ momentum and leaky Washington defense, I dropped one of my few remaining high-stakes entries on Arizona. Somehow, the Cards made those same Commanders look like the ‘85 Bears, who held Kyler Murray under 150 total passing yards on 6.5 YPA.

The largest point remains  —  the NFL is a fast-moving target where every single stat on our precious spreadsheet can perfectly align with notes based on tape… and then not come close to fruition. Successful bettors use the house line as a foundational piece, then mix stats with vibes, momentum, and timing. That’s not to say I won’t continue targeting rookie/inexperienced QBs, I’ll just make sure to steer clear of one Mr. Jayden Daniels. Man, he looks incredibly poised out there.

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Gene takes stock of what once was

Upsets continued to permeate throughout the NFL, proving once again that on any given Sunday you can win or lose in this league. It's what makes Survivor pools so exciting — and so incredibly difficult to win. 

The Raiders continue to do their Jekyll and Hyde impression; they won a game against the Browns a week after being murdered by a Panthers squad that everyone (and by everyone I mainly mean me) assumed was dead. 

The Buccaneers beat an Eagles team missing two of the best receivers in the league and their All-Pro right tackle. The Falcons beat the Saints without scoring an offensive touchdown. The Broncos said, “hold my beer,” and won a game on the road against the Jets without scoring a touchdown. And the Giants almost beat the Cowboys,  but five field goals wasn't enough to take out Dallas… and a lot more Survivor entries.

The Chiefs were able to survive the NFL’s version of the zombie apocalypse, even after losing their top receiver Rashee Rice to a knee injury. It's almost scary how effective Kareem Hunt looked in that offense so quickly. They also brought Travis Kelce out of cryogenic sleep and he looked like the Travis Kelce we've been missing this year — one of the best to ever do it at the tight end position. The scariest part of all this for the rest of the league? The 54-yard touchdown pass from Mahomes to Xavier Worthy that traveled over 60 yards in the air. It was reminiscent of the Tyreek Hill days when the vertical pass element made them practically impossible. If you didn't take my advice from last week and you still have the Chiefs in play, you have a powerful card to deal at any time. They will be a difficult out for any opponent.

Laghezza makes a Survivor pick

For the sake of transparency, I’m going against one of our base rules by betting on a road team this weekend. That said, it’s never mattered less. Through four full weeks of NFL action, home teams are precisely one meaningless game over .500. So if we’re going to go against the grain, I’d prefer it be to play on the road than sacrifice something more determinative like quarterback play or rational coaching (Note: I did an irrational coaching recap this week). To that particular point, I’d avoid one of the public’s top plays, Chicago, like the plague — it’s hard to argue that Andy Dalton (101 PSR, 6.9 YPA) hasn’t outplayed rookie Caleb Williams (72 PSR, 5.6 YPA).

Let’s stay with the most important position in pro sports. The Packers airdropped Jordan Love back into the lineup after missing time with a left knee injury. After starting slow, Love almost engineered a miraculous comeback against the rival Vikings. Despite losing Christian Watson, Green Bay may actually benefit on offense by getting Dontayvion Wicks more snaps — he played a big part in Love’s (279-3-1) second half. Green Bay’s going to be locked in on avoiding a losing streak as one of only eight teams in the league with a positive EPA/Play on both sides of the ball.

Our target? The injured, bruised, and battered Rams’ defense. I hate exaggerating so I can’t necessarily say Los Angeles boasts the worst defensive stats in every category but it’s close (deep breath): points per game, yards per game, yards per play, EPA/play, average drive distance, scoring success rate, rush EPA, rushing yards per game, +20 yard carries, EPA/dropback, opposer passer rating, completion percentage, yards per reception, tackle success rate, and splash plays.

LaFleur and the Pack should be in their bag early, often, and clicking on all phases after a full week of practice with Love under center.

(I know it didn’t work the last two weeks but I asked A.I. to generate an image of my prediction anyway)

Gene makes a Survivor pick

This week there are a ton of matchups that could go either way. It feels like defense and a strong rushing attack are en vogue again, so teams that possess both should be elevated in your selection process. 

One of the more surprising defenses this season resides in Minnesota. The Vikings have been playing complementary football all season long and they have defeated some good opponents over this four-game stretch. That includes wins over the 49ers, Houston, and Green Bay. The play of Sam Darnold in this offense has been refreshing but the real star has been defensive coordinator Brian Flores, whose schemes have left some top tier quarterbacks befuddled.

Now they travel to London to take on a Jets squad that has underachieved so far this season. They played well against two terrible teams, but up against teams with good defenses? The Jets folded under the pressure. Aaron Rodgers has been ordinary. Breece Hall’s performance early in the season has opened the door for legitimate discussion about who should be RB1 for the Jets. This Vikings defense, in a foreign country, just feels like the wrong place for the Jets to find their stride. Minnesota will get the job done in London.

Skol Vikings!

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