One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number — also known as closing line value — it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side.
Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 1 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos
- Current Line: -120; FanDuel
- Bet To: -6.5 (-110)
This is a game that has already seen some betting activity. The Broncos opened as 4.5-point underdogs, but they’re up to six-point dogs across most of the industry. That said, we can still find a 5.5 at FanDuel.
Getting the Seahawks obviously would’ve been a bit more appealing at -4.5 than -5.5, but there’s ultimately not a huge difference between those numbers. Five is an infrequent final margin in the NFL, with four and seven standing out as much more likely outcomes. That’s why they’re known as “key numbers.”
The Broncos don’t have very much going for them at the moment. They’ve decided to start Bo Nix, who was impressive during the preseason. However, rookie quarterbacks notoriously fare poorly in their first taste of NFL action. In Weeks 1 through 3, rookie quarterbacks are just 2-18-1 straight up and 5-15-1 ATS across the last 21 occurrences. Even if Nix ends up being a good player, expectations should be tampered for his professional debut.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense should get off to a flying start. They have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb, and he brings in an exciting system from his time at the University of Washington. The Broncos were merely 25th in defensive EPA last season, including No. 27 vs. the pass. With Geno Smith throwing passes to one of the best receiver trios in football, they should be able to take advantage of this porous unit.
I could see this line continuing to rise until kickoff, so I’m looking to lock them in now. That said, this is playable as long as you’re laying less than a full touchdown.
Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Current Line: -115; BetMGM
- Bet To: +3.5 (-120)
Let’s go straight from one rookie quarterback to another. While Nix was a bit of a surprise first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Jayden Daniels came off the board as the No. 2 option. Some even liked him better than Caleb Williams, so he stands out as an excellent prospect.
I don’t think Daniels will be immune to the rookie struggles, but his ability to run should accelerate his learning curve. He’s not necessarily going to have to pick apart NFL secondaries with his arm; he can simply tuck it and run if nothing jumps off the page.
The Commanders are very live dogs in their first game of the season. They’ll take on the Buccaneers, who stand out as a prime regression candidate in 2024. Specifically, Baker Mayfield was far better in “clutch” situations than on early downs last season, which is tough to duplicate year-to-year. If Baker regresses back to the player that he was on early downs — 30th in EPA per attempt — the Bucs' offense could take a major step backward.
That’s a problem because their defense is far from elite. They were able to stop the run last season but were merely 22nd in dropback EPA against. They posted a 3-7 record when scoring 20 points or fewer last season, so they need to continue to score at a high frequency if they’re going to find success again in 2024.
I don’t see that happening, so I’m happy to fade them at home in Week 1. This line has moved down from 4.5 to 3.5 across most of the industry, and it’s down to 3.0 at DraftKings. I want to ensure that I get a +3.5 in this spot, so I’m locking in the Commanders now.
Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) vs. New England Patriots
- Current Line: -110; DraftKings
- Play To: -9.5 (-110)
Let’s round out our tour of rookie quarterbacks with Drake Maye and the Patriots. Maye has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career. The early reports out of training camp were concerning, with one beat reporter even calling him the “ghost of Mac Jones.”
However, Maye ultimately played well enough in the preseason to earn the starting job. He completed 61.8% of his passes for 192 yards and a touchdown, and he had another 46-yard score called back on an illegal formation penalty. He also added 32 yards on the ground, so you could see why the Patriots believed in him enough to draft him third overall.
Still, the Patriots are expected to be bad this year. Like really bad. They’re +320 to finish with the worst record in football, and no one else is particularly close. The fact that they traded away their best defender (Matthew Judon) before the start of the year certainly won’t help matters.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have been a juggernaut with a healthy Joe Burrow since the start of 2021. They’re 30-18-1 ATS over that time frame (including playoffs), despite a subpar 4-5-1 mark with a banged-up Burrow last season. He’s fully healthy at the moment, and the Bengals should be poised to pick up right where they left off.
Unlike in the first two games, there’s no real need to rush to lock this bet in. Once a number gets above 7.0, there isn’t another key number until you get to 10.0. However, the recent rule changes on PATs have made each point a bit more valuable. More extra points are missed than they were in the past, and teams go for two more often as a result. That means that any bit of CLV helps, and I think this number will close closer to 10. I’m happy to grab -8.5.
