Welcome to Week 1 of Betting Life’s NFL Survivor Series! It’s the inimitable Coach Gene Clemons and yours truly, John Laghezza, right here every Thursday with our thoughts, takes and picks to help you outwit, outlast, and outplay the competition.

Laghezza surveys the landscape

In last week’s primer, we covered the importance of converting NFL betting odds into implied probabilities to help take stock of crowd movement. For us geeks, this best identifies chalk across a spectrum that can then be compared to aggregated team-selection projections.

Who’s laying the heaviest wood? Three teams (all at home) imply win rates greater than seven out of 10 (-234)…

  • CIN vs NE: (-410); 80.4% Implied Probability
  • BUF vs ARI: (-290); 74.4% Implied Probability
  • SEA vs DEN: (-258); 72.1% Implied Probability

Who’s the public on? Four teams aggregate at or near a double-digit selection rate

  • CIN vs NE:~40% Selected — Next 3 @ KC, vs WSH, @ CAR
  • BUF vs ARI:~15% Selected — Next 3 @ MIA, vs JAX, @ BAL
  • SEA vs DEN: ~11% Selected — Next 3 @ NE, vs MIA, @ DET
  • NO vs CAR: ~10% Selected — Next 3 @ DAL, vs PHI, @ ATL

Note: I pull these numbers and aggregate from several sources, including numberfire, SurvivorGrid, and my own projections. 

Turns out the public’s a little hotter on the New Orleans Saints than the books — can anyone say red flag? This could be a classic case of chasing last year’s standings after Carolina’s putrid 2023. While I’m not going so far as to pick the Panthers to win, I am simpatico with the house here. The Saints come into this game deeply flawed and lacking firepower on offense — namely a secondary pass-catcher after Chris Olave. Everyone’s so busy clowning on Carolina’s offense they may be overlooking a ferocious Panthers defense — one that was easily top-3 against the pass in the second half of 2023.

Maybe survivor entrants like the Saints more than they should based on the forward outlook? I agree you can’t play them anytime soon against Dallas or Philadelphia — but that’s not enough to sell me on Derek Carr. What if the hype surrounding Dave Canales and Brad Idzik’s magic working on Bryce Young is true? I’m not willing to find out, in what already promises to be a divisional rock fight.

Like what you're seeing? Get Laghezza in your inbox for free with the Betting Life Newsletter. 

Four survivor tips from Coach Gene

1.  A major key to survivor is to stop trying to pick the best team. Every week in the NFL the “best” teams lose — the double digit favorite loses outright to the underdog at home in what should have been an easy, stress free win. Now you’re on the outside looking in… or reaching into your pocket for a rebuy.

2. The perceived best team is constantly letting you down, and since you can only choose the “best” team once it is faulty logic to follow. Instead you should look for the best situations for quality teams. A high powered passing attack going against one of the worst passing defenses on a day where the elements are not as unpredictable? A dominant defense going against one of the worst offenses in the league? Finding the best situation will hopefully provide you with more stable options to choose from while you are navigating a stressful survivor season.

3. In order to avoid a week where you feel lost, become an expert on a division. It is almost impossible to have deep knowledge about every team in the NFL — you have a real job. That’s what we’re here for. However it is not too difficult to become an expert on a single division; just four teams. Having an in-depth knowledge or understanding of a division will not only tell you when to use one of those teams as your pick for the week, but it will help inform you of when to pick teams that play that team when they are struggling — or stay away from a team that plays the team when they are hot. Temperature checks, injury reports, internal/external beef, contract negotiations; they are all great intel to submerge yourself in and act as an anchor while you navigate your way through what is always a tumultuous NFL season.

4. Never try to tuck a good team away, this is already gambling. There is no need to gamble with the gamble. If you think a team is a guaranteed win, do not be afraid to play them.

Laghezza makes a survivor pick

I’m just as worried about Buffalo being unable to circle the wagons. The Bills are without Stefon Diggs and Matt Milano hosting a completely retooled Cardinals squad. I suspect the Bills wind up taking it down in a close one. That said, my sheet’s closer to (-3.5) against the spread than the listed -6.5 (see all the betting odds across all the major sportsbooks here), dropping their implied win probability roughly twelve points — and firmly off the table for me. Not to summon bad vibes for the masses but a weird bounce here or there and this could be setting up as a nightmare for office-dwelling chalk chasers.

That leaves me with Cincinatti and Seattle heading into final tiebreakers. No single player, (especially a non-QB) should swing a projected spread too much — but you can’t tell me you feel great about the Ja’Marr Chase situation for the Bengals. That CIN defense struggled more often than not last year and will need every playmaker at their disposal. Also, I know fantasy footballers blew raspberries when the Pats decided to go with Jacoby Brissett under center, but he’s a stabilizing force and less likely to throw the game away than a Week 1 rookie.

Right now, I’m circling the Seahawks as my top pick to rule the roost this weekend. They sport the big home edge in front of that raucous Pacific Northwest crowd against a debut quarterback — and I’ll always default to opposing a lack of NFL experience calling signals.

Gene makes a survivor pick

Week 1 lays out some intriguing matchups — which is a great thing for football fans but it makes life more difficult when you need to pick a guaranteed winner. 

The two teams I have the most confidence in are playing each other — so that eliminates the Chiefs and Ravens as options. Similarly, two of the teams I have legit questions about are facing each other, so that eliminates the Giants and Vikings. 

The 49ers are a team I like a lot but the Jets defense is lights out and their offense is too much of an unknown to gamble on either way. 

In the end, the two teams that I have the most confidence in — based on their makeup and the team they are playing — are the Bengals and Seahawks. 

I am not sure what the Patriots are doing but I do not think it's going to be successful. The Bengals should come out and reestablish themselves as a team ready for a playoff run. I also believe that whatever magic Sean Payton had in New Orleans — he left there. The Seahawks have weapons everywhere and a quarterback who is fueled by constant underestimating by everyone on the outside looking in. I believe both teams roll but I'm rolling with the “12's.”

So the groundwork’s laid and hopefully a brushfire’s starting to burn upstairs — we’ll meet everyone right back here next week to lock in our first of what I hope is 18 picks on the road to glory.