Welcome to the Week 10 best bets article. 

Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below. 

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up. 

If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.

Colts -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

  • Play to Colts -2.5 (-110)

The Colts enter this pivotal game against the Patriots 5-4 ATS and 3-1 ATS away from home. Last week was their first time being listed as a favorite (they closed at -3.0) and they covered by over 10.0 points. On the flip side, they face a New England team who is 2-7 ATS in 2023 and an incredible 3-12 ATS as an underdog since the start of 2022. 

Three of the Colts' four wins have also come against teams with .500 records or worse, so when they’ve been up against equal or inferior competition, they have stepped up. From a matchup perspective, Gardner Minshew has struggled to hold onto the ball against better pass rushes, but New England has the eighth fewest sacks and the sixth-fewest turnovers on the year. 

Last week, the Colts' defense sacked Bryce Young four times while grabbing 3 INTs, and they should have lots of opportunities to replicate that feat against the skittish Mac Jones—and a Patriots offense that ranks 28th in yards per attempt and 25th in yards per rush. 

To put a bookend on this, favorites overseas have also been stellar, going 32-10-1 straight up and 28-15 against the spread since the NFL international series began. You don’t have to love the Colts, or even think they can hold a candle to the AFC elites, but they're the superior team and likely deserve to be favored by a heavier margin come kickoff.

You can tail the Colts on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting today:

Chargers +3.0 (-108, FanDuel)

  • Play to: Chargers +2.5 (-115) – if the line moves to 2.5 play Chargers moneyline +120

Right now, Detroit is one of the heaviest bet teams of the week with over 91% of the bets and 79% of the handle coming in on the Lions on DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite all that action, this line hasn’t budged off 3.0 since moving there from 2.5. And it’s potentially for good reason. 

Detroit is certainly an upper-echelon team, but perspective is warranted. Outside of their Week 1, Kadarius Toney-aided win against the Chiefs, the Lions have beaten: Carolina, Las Vegas, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. Their defense ultimately couldn’t finish off the Seahawks and got absolutely blistered by the Ravens. 

Justin Herbert

Oct 22, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

While their defensive line remains stellar, over the last three weeks they are 29th in yards per pass attempt against (7.4) and face a QB in Justin Herbert who is 12th in EPA+CPOE composite (per RBDM). The only other top 12 QBs they’ve faced in that stat this year are Lamar Jackson (32-point loss) and Patrick Mahomes (1-point win). 

I think the Chargers likely keep this game close and potentially even pull off the upset win, getting them back in the playoff hunt as we head into the back half of the season.

You can tail the Chargers on FanDuel, where you can place a first bet of at least $5 to get $200 in bonus bets below!

Cardinals +8.0 | Seahawks -0.5 (-120, DraftKings)

While we would have ideally liked to get the Cardinals at +2.5 to +8.5, this line seems very unlikely to move back to 2.5 and has a chance to close at a pick’em. Getting the Cardinals up to +8.0 (and through 7.0) is good enough for me in this spot and does move us through multiple key numbers (3.0, 4.0, 7.0). Atlanta’s only win by more than a TD this year came in Week 1 against Carolina, and they have regressed horribly on defense the last couple of weeks, allowing 59 points over two games and falling to 25th in defensive DVOA. 

On the other side of the teaser there is Seattle, who is 10th in offensive DVOA, 19th in defensive DVOA, and carries a solid talent advantage over Washington (23rd offense, 29th defense). I don’t love teasing favorites down, but this is a must-win game for Seattle and a pretty classic bounceback spot after getting humiliated last week in Baltimore. Going to Seattle in the middle of a road trip has classically been very tough for opponents as well. Teams on the second leg or later of a road trip when facing Seattle are 12-38 SU (per The Action Network).

You can tail the teaser at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

DeAndre Hopkins over 63.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM)

This line opened up at 59.5 but moved to 63.5 yesterday, likely in reaction to news out of Tampa Bay that both their starting cornerbacks, Jamal Dean and Carlton Davis, are questionable. Even with a 4.0 yard move, though, this line feels too low. 

Will Levis has averaged over 7.4 yards per attempt in two starts, and didn’t crumble against Pittsburgh on short prep. That’s great news for Hopkins, whom Levis targeted 11 times last week and who comes in with a dominant 28% team target share and 41% air yards share. 

DeAndre Hopkins

We could talk about Hopkins' talent for days—and how he’s the perfect fit for a young QB like Levis, who isn’t afraid to throw downfield—but in reality, targeting Hopkins is truly about the matchup. 

Over their last two games Tampa has been an ATM for opposing WRs. They’ve allowed 9.3 yards per attempt and have now seen five different WRs go for 70+ yards against them in that span. Tampa’s lower pressure rate (19th in sacks and 21st in pressure rate) and failing corners (both received bottom five game grades from PFF last week) make this a perfect storm scenario for Hopkins, who is also a great alternative line target (75+, 100+ yards) for Week 10 as well. 

Titans Same-Game Parlay: +425 (bet365)

  • Will Levis 250+ passing yards
  • DeAndre Hopkins 75+ receiving yards 

I like this spot for Levis quite a bit and don’t mind attacking spots I like with bets that bring more variance, but also bigger payouts. 

We know Todd Bowles will sell out to stop the run and indirectly challenge Levis to beat him—much like he did last week against CJ Stroud, who shredded the Bucs for 470 yards. Levis and DeAndre Hopkins (11 targets in Week 9) should make the Bucs pay in similar fashion. 

Tampa has allowed the third most yards to opposing WRs and their starting two corners, as mentioned above, are highly questionable in skill and status. Over his last 17 games, dating back to last season, Hopkins has actually gone for 75+ yards on eight different occasions—a 47% hit rate—and at +425 we’re being given implied odds of 19.0% that this parlay hits.

Hopkins accounted for 53% of Levis’s yardage in Week 8, so if Levis manages to reach his number, there’s a high chance Hopkins will reach his as well. It’s a good duo to combine and play for more upside within Week 10. 

Same Game Parlay

Alvin Kamara under 51.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)

After giving Kamara 17+ carries in four straight games, the Saints finally dialed back his workload in Week 9, as he ended the game against the Bears with just 9 carries for 26 yards. Kamara’s total rushing share has actually dwindled four weeks in a row as the team has incorporated more Taysom Hill runs and got backups Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller into the lineup.

Alvin Kamara

I think the Kamara slide in usage continues this week. The veteran has averaged under 3.5 yards per carry over his last five games and faces a Vikings defense who are fifth in yards per rush attempt against (3.7). 

While we have Kamara projected for over 47.0 rushing yards, I think that is taking into account his bigger usage outputs from Weeks 5-8 and not potentially looking at the fact that New Orleans may want to cut back on his rushing volume, given his importance to the passing game. The matchup and trends all dictate being aggressive here and fading Kamara even if his total slips to under 50.0 yards.

You can tail both the SGP and Kamara on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up and place a $1 bet below!

Week 10 Best Bets