Welcome to the Week 11 best bets article.
Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.
If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.
Spread: Titans +7.0 (-110, bet365)
- Play to: +7.0 (-120)
Part of liking the Titans in this spot is just the general feeling that Jacksonville remains somewhat overrated. The Jaguars come in ranked fourth in Luck Rating and also got completely exposed by the 49ers last week, allowing 10.5 yards per attempt to Brock Purdy (296-3). This week, they’ll face another young gunslinger and unknown quantity at QB in Will Levis.
While the Titans O-line remains a huge concern, the Jaguars have the fifth fewest sacks in the league and are without a dominant edge rusher. Tennessee has also taken some steps to rectify the beatings that Levis has taken of late. They claimed former Panthers guard Calvin Throckmorton off waivers this week—who has allowed zero sacks on 508 snaps played this year.
The trends also remain solidly in favor of a Titans cover. Mike Vrabel is a terrific coach to back as a big underdog and comes in 25-14-1 ATS for his career when his teams are +3 or higher on the spread. As for the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence often plays down to his competition. He’s 4-11 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and comes into this game ranked just 17th in EPA per play among all QBs—and with one TD pass or fewer in seven of his last eight starts.
The Titans may fall short of the playoffs this year, but, for Week 11, they do look like a solid back at +7.0 or higher—on a spread that feels like it has moved too far in favor of a very publicly bet Jaguars squad.
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Spread: 49ers -11.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: 49ers -12.0 (-115)
When the Buccaneers have faced superior competition, the game has gone exactly as expected. Loss by 14 to the Eagles in Week 3, loss by 14 to the Lions in Week 6, loss by 6 in Week 8 to the Bills (that could have been a loss by 21+ if the Bills had any luck or defense).
The 49ers are healthy, coming off a statement win and are back home where they have been insanely dominant under Brock Purdy. San Francisco, with Purdy as starter, is 8-1 ATS in home games.
It’s worth noting the influence that Swiss army knife Deebo Samuel has on this team as well. As noted in the Betting Life newsletter this week, the 49ers are 5-1 ATS (59.4% ROI) with a +21.7 point differential in the six games Samuel has played and 0-3 ATS in the ones he’s missed.
With Samuel healthy, this also makes for a good time to bet against Todd Bowles, for which we need very little justification. Bowles, for his career, is 22-29-3 ATS when his team is an underdog. The Buccaneers were able to shut down the Titans last week due to their insanely weak offensive line but face the QB ranked number one in EPA + CPOE composite and an O-line that allows the fourth fewest sacks per game.
It’s easy to overthink these kinds of spots, but a San Francisco cover (and potential rout) is the most likely way this game ends in Week 11.
You can tail the Niners at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to claim your first bet offer:
Teaser: Vikings +2.5 to +8.5 / Commanders -8.5 to -2.5
- Play to: Vikings +8.0 / Commanders -3.0
Just like last week’s teaser (Arizona and Seattle), I like moving up on a small underdog and moving down on a big favorite.
Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) passes to tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) against the New Orleans Saints in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
With the Vikings sitting at +2.5, they make for perfect Wong teaser candidates, since adding 6.0 points gets us through a bunch of key numbers (4.0, 7.0, and 8.0). Additionally, while it’s been a nice ride of late for Denver fans, I do love targeting the Broncos in this spot.
Not only is Denver on a short week of rest after playing on MNF but they are also coming off an emotional upset win. Even if they win the game this week, their only cover this year by more than 8 points came in Week 8 against an ailing Patrick Mahomes in terrible weather conditions. Minnesota has yet to lose a game by more than seven points all season.
The Vikings have a solid rush defense (fifth in yards per rush against), are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as underdogs, and may even benefit from the injury to Alexander Mattison (concussion - questionable) as it will force Kevin O’Connell to insert speed demons Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu into the lineup against a terrible Denver rush defense.
The other side of this bet (the Commanders) requires less explanation. Per the Thursday Betting Life newsletter, the Giants are now 0-2-1 ATS (-66.7% ROI) with a -19.7 point differential, in games where Tommy DeVito has started or made an appearance.
As much as I hate trusting the Commanders to cover any kind of spread, you have to give Sam Howell some credit. He’s averaged 344 yards, 2.66 TDs, and 0.66 INTs per game over his last three starts. With the Giants' best pass rusher very questionable to play this week (Kayvon Thibodeaux – concussion), it’s likely that Howell finds more room to operate than he did in the first matchup between these teams (14-7 New York win) and gets us at least the 3.0 point cover.
Prop: Jerome Ford over 11.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365)
- Projection: 14.0
- Play to: 12.5 (-115)
Ford’s dominance of the Browns' backfield has been impressive to watch. The second-year runner has seen a snap share over 60% in his last two games and posted a route rate of 62% last week as well.
While he’s not turning into Christian McCaffrey or Larry Centers anytime soon, Ford is clearly the preferred passing option for Cleveland as Kareem Hunt (three targets over last four games) has essentially been relegated to some relief and short yardage snaps.
For betting, taking advantage of the small receiving totals we are still able to get on Ford is where I like attacking this situation the best. Since Week 2, Ford has averaged 17.6 receiving yards per game and will be working with a quarterback in Dorian Thompson-Robinson who is a limited downfield passer and targeted Ford six times (5 catches, 19 yards) in his only other start against the Ravens.
The Steelers aren’t a terrible matchup either and have allowed at least one RB to go for 12+ yards receiving in every single game they have played this year.
Prop: Jordan Love over 226.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Projection: 237.0
- Play to: 231.5
Jordan Love has certainly made some poor decisions in the red zone of late, but in the meaty portion of the field he’s been extremely efficient and his rate of spectacular throws has been increasing.
The Chargers are also a fantastic matchup, and one where we should expect to see more of the above from Love. Los Angeles is 29th in yards per play on offense and 31st in yards per pass attempt. Every single QB that has faced the Chargers this season has thrown for 230+ yards, and that list includes luminaries such as Aiden O’Connell (238 yards in Week 4—his first NFL start) and Tyson Bagent (232 yards in Week 8—his second career start).
I like taking the over on his regular passing prop this week, but if you want a little more degeneracy in your life (who doesn’t), I also cooked up a same game parlay this week using his alternate passing total (and pairing him with alternate totals on Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave).
Whichever way you slice it, with the Chargers in town, it’s a good time to be bullish on Love and the Packers' young receivers.
You can tail Love on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more below!
Packers SGP (+1100, DraftKings)
- Jordan Love 250+ yards
- Christian Watson 70+ yards
- Luke Musgrave over 28.5 yards
Christian Watson has endured a bit of a tough week, and a lot of criticism from the local media. Watson has only converted on 42.4 percent of his targets in 2023, and as of Week 8 was 0/8 on contested catches.
He’s also seen a lot of poor passes (just a 48% catchable target rate) and endured bad luck, in general, on the contested catch front. A lot of these factors can and will change in his direction in a hurry. The Chargers, as mentioned above, allow a lot of broken plays and have ceded the fifth most yards to opposing WRs—despite having already had their bye.
If Watson does break through for a big game, he’s likely not going for 40-50 yards either. Nine different receivers have gone for 75+ yards against the Chargers already this year, and Watson has still gone for 70+ yards in four of his last 14 games as a Packer, even despite this horrendous start.
Adding in an over on Luke Musgrave, who has gone over his 28.5 total in four of his last six games, makes plenty of sense as well. The Chargers have allowed the most yards to opposing TEs on the season, and if Love does hit his alternate line of 250+, it’s likely that Musgrave chips in with a big catch or two and sails over his number as well.
You can tail the SGP on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
