Welcome to the Week 14 best bets article.
Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.
If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.
Los Angeles Rams +7.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: +7.0 (-110)
Batten down the hatches because the Rams are coming. After throwing for under 2 TDs in eight straight starts to begin the year, Matthew Stafford has now thrown for 8 TDs in his last three games. He’s also up to 13th in EPA per play, which actually ranks him ahead of Lamar Jackson (15th).
Speaking of Jackson, his first game without Mark Andrews didn’t go so well. A 56% completion percentage and 5.53 yards per completion against one of the worst secondaries in the league (the Chargers) isn’t something to write home about. This week, he’ll also face an emerging Rams defense that is up to 12th in success rate against the pass.
This game is likely to have some rain and winds above 10mph, which will hamper the passing game on both sides. The Ravens are number one in rush success rate on offense, but again, look out for the Rams, who are now 5th in rush success rate themselves.
The Ravens are clearly an upper echelon team, but the Rams are showing signs of being elite themselves and look undervalued at over a TD on the spread. It doesn’t hurt that we are getting the Ravens in what has historically been a tricky spot for them, either, as Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh are just 5-15 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, over the past three years (per The Action Network).
The Rams can make a game of this and look like a bet at anything +7.0 (-110) or better.
You can tail the Rams at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win after you sign up for your new account below!
Cleveland Browns -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -3.0 (-120)
Everything considered, this seems like a widowmaker spot for the Jaguars. They’re on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football and their starting QB is questionable after injuring his ankle in that same game (Lawrence did practice on Thursday but was limited). They’re also facing a Browns team who is 5-1 straight up at home this year.
Oh, and those QB concerns we had about the Browns may not be all that concerning anymore. Joe Flacco—who is 9-2 for his career while playing in Cleveland—looked terrific in his season debut, throwing for two TDs on the day against a suddenly emergent Rams secondary. After a decade+ of playing in the AFC North, there are few QBs better suited for handling a windy/cold environment at Cleveland Browns Stadium than the still strong-armed Flacco.
The Jaguars' secondary got exposed harshly last week and may also be without starter Tre Hardon (concussion). There are other concerns for Jacksonville as well, as Christian Kirk (groin) seems to be on the doubtful side of playing this week and even backup CJ Beathard (shoulder) is now iffy.
All things considered, the Browns defense is far and away the best unit in this game (1st in EPA per play) and with the Jaguars offense potentially down two major pieces, taking the Browns to cover a mere FG seems like the right call in Week 14.
Teaser: Broncos +8.5, Bills +7.5 (-120, DraftKings)
I like this spot for the Broncos quite a bit. The Chargers have two wins of a TD or more this season, but they came against teams starting backup QBs with offenses that rank in the bottom 10 of the EPA per play standings. Since those two wins (Week 8 and 9), the Chargers offense has regressed as well. Denver remains a weaker run-stopping unit, but has improved in that area of late, and the Chargers are dead last in rush success rate on offense.
Dec 3, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) celebrates his touchdown reception against the Houston Texans in the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
From a matchup perspective, the Broncos will likely have enough success running the ball against a Chargers defense that has slid to 18th in success rate against the run that some big plays to Courtland Sutton will eventually become available. I don’t mind playing the Broncos at +2.5 or even on the straight-up money line (+130 Caesars), but they are also in ideal Wong teaser range at +2.5 (to +8.5).
Using them with the Bills, who we can take from +1.5 to +7.5, makes a whole lot of sense as well. Buffalo has averaged 33.5 points over their last two games and hasn’t lost by margin (more than a converted TD) once this year. They rank out nearly even with the Chiefs in EPA/play on both defense (14th vs 10th) and offense (4th vs 6th), and have covered in two straight games after firing OC Ken Dorsey.
I bet the Bills at +3.0 in our FREE bet tracker earlier in the week and instead paired the Broncos (+8.5) with the Buccaneers (+8.5). However, with where the lines are now (Bills +1.5 at most spots), I wouldn’t hesitate to use Denver with Buffalo. Both road teams are in good spots to produce close games (and potentially pull off upset wins) for us in Week 14.
James Cook over 43.5 rushing yards (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: 47.5 (-110)
- Projection: 55.6
I bet this total at open at 42.5 and placed it in our FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker (you can get access to notifications for these bets when they drop by joining our free discord). Since then, the total on Cook has risen by a yard or two at most sportsbooks.
I would still not hesitate to play the over. Despite the Bills' love affair with Latavius Murray and their insistence on singing depth pieces like Leonard Fournette to make Cook bettors and fantasy owners feel uneasy on a weekly basis, the second-year back has take 12 carries or more in six of his last seven games. He’s also averaged 16.5 carries a game in the two starts since the Bills fired former OC Ken Dorsey.
For context, Cook has taken 12 or more carries 10 times this year already. In those games, he rushed for 50 yards or more seven times and 40 yards or more nine times. For the season he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry and is fourth in explosive run plays (10+ yards).
The Chiefs are also a great matchup. They may be without LB Drue Tranquill (concussion - questionable) and are just 21st in success rate against the run this season. The Chiefs have also allowed at least one RB to post 70+ rushing yards against them in every game they’ve played since Week 7.
Cook’s projected in the 53.0-54.0 yard range in our aggregate projections this week and makes for a solid over target in this market even if his total reaches the mid-to-high 40s by end of week.
Ladder Bet: Rachaad White receiving yards (DraftKings)
- 50+ (+400) - play to +350
- 60+ (+700) - play to +600
- 70+ (+1000) - play to +1000
I love targeting stylistic mismatches for ladder bets. If we’re playing for upside, we need the right circumstances for a big game to take place, so making sure some essential ingredients (a player with a unique talent, a defense with a specific weakness) are there to fuel our player along the way is always a good starting point for betting.
In Rachaad White, we have one of the league’s most efficient and, overall, most talented receiving backs. White is third in receptions among all RBs this year and has a 90% conversion rate on targets (46 catches, 51 targets). He’s also a better open-field runner than people realize and rates out fifth in receiving yards after contact, far ahead of other elite pass-catching RBs like Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Falcons are also a solid matchup for White. Their defense is built around massive but immobile linemen up front, who are great run stuffers but can be beaten out in space—a fact that has started to show up on the scoresheet for Atlanta more and more as the season has progressed. In three of their last six games, Atlanta has allowed an RB to go for over 40 yards receiving (and over 10 yards a catch)—with White himself posting a 6-65 day receiving against Atlanta back in Week 7.
With the Falcons having a solid shutdown corner in AJ Terrell—and the Falcons surely cognizant of the fact that WR Mike Evans has been tearing apart teams who don’t double-team him—I’d expect this to be a game where Baker Mayfield will need to use White as an outlet more than he has the last couple of weeks.
While you could start more conservatively than what I recommended (at 25 yards (-115) or 40 yards (+230), laddering White at 50 through 70 receiving yards will let you profit the most from a big day. With this being such a huge divisional game, White should be on the field a ton, and given the nature of the Falcons' defense, if he excels it will likely be more as a receiver than a runner.
You can tail the White ladder at DraftKings, where you can get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you place a first bet of at least $5 after signing up below!
