Welcome to the Week 15 best bets article.
Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.
If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.
Bears +3.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-120)
The line on the Bears game is following the exact same pattern that we saw last week in their matchup against the Lions—a game which they won and covered with ease.
The Bears opened up at +3.5 against the Browns, and while there was some initial trepidation—likely due to Joe Flacco’s big game last week—it’s now clear that the market believes that giving the Bears more than a FG in this spot is too much.
I’d tend to agree, and even take that a step further, suggesting that there is good value in taking Chicago at +3.0 as well. The Browns are in a tough spot from an injury perspective as they’ve just placed two OL on injured reserve, including standout rookie Dawand Jones who had been a major catalyst for the Browns' season to date.
The Bears' defense may have had a tough start to the season, but they are not a unit to be trifled with. Since adding Montez Sweat at the trade deadline they are 6th in defensive EPA (per The Action Network). They also held a top 10 offense in the Lions to under 6.75 yards per attempt twice in the last four weeks—and have nine INTs (and a handful of fumble recoveries) over their last three games.
The Browns have been a solid team under Kevin Stefanski for the most part, but they have tended to let down bettors more times than not once they get a little momentum. Since Stefanski joined the Browns, the team is just 14-20 ATS as favorites.
The Bears have an emerging and healthy defense and are going up against a wounded Browns O-line. Add in a motivated Justin Fields, who is playing for his future down the stretch (either with the Bears or someone else) and this looks like another great spot to jump on Chicago (who have now covered in three straight games).
Rams -6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -7.0 (-110)
The Rams are another team who are emerging as a solid unit to back down the stretch. They were featured in this article last week (at +7.5 against the Ravens) and didn’t disappoint, taking the potentially Super Bowl-bound Ravens to the limit in a 37-31 OT loss.
This week, they head home to face the lowly Commanders in what is a must-win game for the Rams if they want to stay in the hunt for a wildcard spot. The Commanders are coming off a bye, but at this point, I’m just not sure what a bye week will really do for a team as lacking in talent and cohesion as the Commanders. Washington is 32nd (dead last) in EPA per play on defense and 32nd in EPA per dropback against. They have also started to deteriorate against the rush since losing Montez Sweat, allowing 4.4 yards per carry over their last three games (13th worst mark over that span).
This week they’ll face a fully healthy Rams offense that is now 9th in EPA per play on offense and 6th in EPA per rush. Given the Rams are also at home, it could be argued that this kind of mismatch is deserving of more than a TD on the spread.
The Commanders do have the rest advantage, but Ron Rivera teams, for his career, are just 5-10 ATS off a bye. It’s worth noting as well that Washington has lost nine games this season already and seven of those losses have come by 7 points or more. The Rams have also been profitable as favorites this year for bettors (suggesting they have been undervalued in these kinds of spots), going 4-2 ATS as favorites in 2023.
All-in-all, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. If the Rams play to their full potential, they should have a great shot at winning by margin (TD or more) and paying off for us again in Week 15.
You can tail the Bears and Rams at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below and start betting today!
Teaser: Buccaneers +9.5 / Chiefs -1.5 (-120, DraftKings)
- Play to: Buccaneers -8.5 / Chiefs -2.5 -120
On top of hitting both spread bets last week (Rams +7.5 and Browns -3.0), we also hit on the teaser as both Denver and Buffalo covered their actual spreads with ease (and won outright). In lieu of that success, why not run it back in Week 15 and look for another solid teaser spot.
Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The Buccaneers have been the definition of scrappy with Baker Mayfield at QB, who still ranks 14th in EPA per play at QB, ahead of names like Justin Fields and Justin Herbert. Tampa Bay, as a result, has rarely been blown out this year. They’ve struggled against top tier teams, losing by margin to Detroit, San Francisco, and Philadelphia (in Week 3), but the rest of their losses have all come by 7 points or fewer.
Green Bay is playing better of late (and will be at home), but I expect Tampa Bay to have enough success running the ball against a poor Packers rush defense to keep this game close—and we always have the Baker backdoor potential if the Buccaneers' defense can’t hold.
The Chiefs play is much more straightforward. Bailey Zappe may have had a little success against a sleepwalking Steelers defense (who lost two starting LBs in that Week 14 TNF game), but he still ranks 50th among 51 QBs (who have played 50 or more snaps) in EPA per play (ranking ahead of only Tim Boyle). This is a prime regression spot against a defense that is still 11th in EPA per play.
Getting the Chiefs under a FG this week feels like a savvy way to get exposure to a team that could take out their frustrations from last week on a still very subpar Patriots squad.
You can tail the teaser at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place a first bet of at least $5!
Kyler Murray over 206.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: 209.5 (-110)
- Projection: 211.5
This low total on Murray’s passing yardage just feels like too much of an overreaction to his poor Week 13 production. Yes, he only threw the ball 23 times for 145 yards in his last start, but let's look at the circumstances. The Cardinals were on the road against a tough Steelers front and were missing WR Michael Wilson—and had Marquise Brown (heel) and Trey McBride (groin) playing through injuries.
James Conner was also balling out against his old team in that game, so there was little need to go away from a run-heavy plan that was working. The 49ers will, of course, be a completely different story. Teams facing the 49ers this year are averaging 38.1 pass attempts per game, the third highest mark in the league. Lately, their secondary has only been average as well and last week ceded 7.1 yards per attempt and a 71% completion rate to backup Drew Lock.
Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) scrambles with the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Marquise Brown (heel) has yet to practice this week, but head coach Jonathan Gannon was bullish on his status, stating he feels “a lot better today than he has in the last couple of weeks.” Michael Wilson did return to a limited practice. If those two can practice fully later in the week, it would give Murray his two starting wideouts back and a healthy Trey McBride, who is off the injury report this week.
Ultimately, backing Murray for a decent passing day seems like the right move in this spot. Arizona will be bringing in a healthier complement of receivers than they did in their last game, and Murray is also likely to have lots of up-tempo situations to work with late in this game—much as Joshua Dobbs (265 passing yards against SF in Week 4) did in the first meeting between these two teams.
Ladder: Cooper Kupp receiving yards (bet365)
- 100+ (+235), play to +215
- 100+ & anytime TD (+400), play to +375
- 125+ (+550), play to +500
The Rams played the Ravens tough last week, and one of the main reasons why was the reemergence of the deadly Cooper Kupp – Matthew Stafford “breakfast club” connection.
Kupp has had a tough year, but his Week 14 game looked like it had a direct correlation to his recovery from a mid-season ankle injury that was hindering him between Weeks 11-13. While it’s been rare this year, when Kupp has been healthy (and by all accounts, he is again 100%), he’s been the same Cooper Kupp who won everyone their fantasy leagues back in 2021.
- Week 5 vs Philadelphia: 8-118-0
- Week 6 vs Arizona: 7-148-1
- Week 14 vs Baltimore: 8-115-1
While you could scrutinize the first two outbursts for coming against weaker secondaries, last week’s game against the Ravens (a top-five defense in EPA per play) was a masterclass. This week he faces the Commanders, who are dead last in EPA on defense.
These aren’t ginormous odds we’re getting to chase milestones on Kupp, but they are still generous. Despite the up and down season, he’s gone for over 100 yards three times in nine games this year, and going back to last season, he’s gone for over 100 yards in eight of his last 18 regular season games (that includes Week 9 of 2022, a game he didn’t finish due to injury).
That’s a 44.4% hit rate for Kupp since 2022 (in hitting the 100-yard barrier), and yet the +235 odds on 100+ yards this week only imply a 29.5% implied probability of this occurring. I like playing this through 125+ yards as well (which you can do on Bet365). Adding an additional piece to this ladder bet, by making a same-game parlay with 100+ yards and a TD, makes a lot of sense as well in this spot.
You can tail the Kupp ladder at bet365, where you can place a first bet of just $1 to score up to $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below!
