In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.

That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.

Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 15.

New York Jets (+13.0) at Miami Dolphins

  • Current Line: Jets +13.0 (-110; FanDuel)
  • Target Range: Jets +12.0 or better

As crazy as it sounds, I’m officially a believer in Zach Wilson. He reportedly had a fantastic week of practice, and for one of the first times in his career, it seemed like he was actually having fun on Sunday. He finished with one of the best games of his career — 301 passing yards, two touchdowns — in an upset victory over the Texans.

I don’t expect Wilson to play that well every week, but his problems throughout his career have been 100% mental. If he is finally in a good mindset, it wouldn’t shock me if he played his best football down the stretch.

The good news for the Jets is that they don’t need that level of performance from Wilson on most weeks. Their defense is phenomenal, entering Week 14 fourth in EPA/play. After limiting the presumptive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and the Texans to just six points, that number is only going up.

The Jets’ D will have their hands full vs. the Dolphins, but they do have a few things working for them. For starters, they’ll have the benefit of an extra day of rest, with the Dolphins playing on Monday Night Football in Week 14.

Double-digit divisional underdogs have also historically been solid investments. They’re 149-123-9 dating back to the start of the 2005 season.

This number is already down as low as 10.5 at some locations, and it’s crazy to see that wide of a differential, even on openers. I expect this number to settle somewhere between 10.5 and 12.0, so grabbing a +13.0 now seems like a sharp decision. 

You can tail the Jets at +13.0 on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5 if it wins!

San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Arizona Cardinals

  • Current Line: 49ers -13.5 (-110; FanDuel)
  • Target Range: 49ers -13.5 or better

On the opposite end of the spectrum, I’m continuing to ride with this absolute juggernaut. The 49ers didn’t come through for those who got them late in the week, but it was still another really easy victory in a somewhat tricky spot. Seattle isn’t a bad team — and there was a bit of letdown potential after beating the Eagles — but the 49ers still outgained Seattle by more than 200 yards. If not for a late Brandon Aiyuk fumble deep in Seattle territory, this likely would’ve been another easy cover and victory regardless of what number you grabbed the 49ers at.

I don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas vs. the Cardinals in Week 15.

Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) stands next to wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) after the 49ers picked up a first down near the end zone against the Seattle Seahawks in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

While Seattle was still playing for a playoff spot, the Cardinals have officially entered tanking season. They would own the No. 3 pick if the draft started today, but they’re tied with the Patriots for the second-worst record in football.

My power ratings put this game comfortably on the other side of 14, and the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings aren’t far off. This number is already at 14.0 at plenty of locations across the industry, so I’m not missing out on the best number with San Fran for the second straight week.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Current Line: Ravens -3.0 (-110; PointsBet)
  • Target Range: Ravens -3.0 or better

What do you make of the Jaguars at the moment? It’s not a particularly tough question for me personally. I’ve been low on the Jags for most of the season, and with Trevor Lawrence operating at less than 100%, they’re a prime fade candidate moving forward.

A matchup vs. the Ravens certainly qualifies.

The Jaguars were pretty thoroughly outplayed by the Browns on Sunday, and the Ravens are just a rich man’s version of the Browns. They’re nearly as dominant on defense, but they’re massively better on offense. In fact, Baltimore is second in EPA/play on defense and sixth on offense, so they’re among the best in football on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s defense has started to show some slippage. One week after allowing 34 points to Jake Browning and the Bengals, they followed that up with 31 points allowed to Joe Flacco. That’s pretty concerning since Flacco was literally on the couch a month ago.

Overall, the Jags’ D entered Week 14 just 16th in EPA/play defensively after spending most of the early season in the top 10. With a slumping defense and a questionable quarterback, I’m not sure how they contend with one of the best teams in football. I expect this number to close higher than -3.0, so I’m locking them in now.

Houston Texans (+2.0) at Tennessee Titans

  • Current Line: Texans +2.0 (-110; FanDuel)
  • Target Range: Texans +1.0 or better

This is one of the toughest games to get a feel for early in the week, largely due to the injury to Stroud. He exited Sunday’s game vs. the Jets and is currently in the concussion protocol, which puts his status vs. the Titans in serious doubt.

Typically, I tend to target opposing teams when one team has a questionable quarterback. However, I think the value currently sides with the Texans.

They’re down to +2.0 on FanDuel after being listed at -3.5 on the lookahead line. That’s a 5.5-point line move for a questionable player. I don’t know if Stroud is worth that much to the spread — Matthew Freedman has him as worth 2.5 points — but there’s still a chance he suits up! Even if he doesn’t, is Davis Mills really that much worse than what we’ve seen from Will Levis?

The Texans are the team with something to play for, as they’re one of six teams currently tied at 7-6 in the AFC. In short — expect to see the best from the rest of the Texans, regardless of who is under center. I’m happy to play them at anything better than a pick’em.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Under 38.5

  • Current Total: 38.5 (-110; DraftKings)
  • Target Range: Under 37.5 or better

We’ve seen some low totals of late, and we’ve got another one in this week’s matchup between the Bears and Browns. Still, 38.5 actually feels reasonable given some of the sub-35-point totals we’ve seen recently.

If any game calls for minimal scoring, it’s this one. The Browns have had the best defense in the league this season, while the Bears defense has been on fire over the second half of the year. They’re fifth in defensive EPA/play since Week 7, and they’ve been absolutely elite vs. the run.

While Flacco has impressed over the past two weeks, there’s a reason he spent the early part of the year on his sofa. Justin Fields and the Bears’ offense is also far from a juggernaut, so this game could be a race to 17.

I expect this number to close at least a few points lower, so I’m locking in the 38.5 now.

You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Early Betting Lines