It was a solid Week 15 for the best bets:
- Bears +3.0 PUSH (✅ if you managed to get +3.5)
- Rams -6.5 ✅
- Teaser: Tampa Bay +8.5 / Chiefs -1.5 ✅
- Kyler Murray over 206.5 pass yards ✅
- Cooper Kupp 100+ yards and 100+ yards and a TD ✅
The only thing we didn’t hit on was the Kupp 125+ yards, but if you played the 100+ and 100+ TD bets, you made out very well on that ladder bet.
For Week 16 we’ll try and keep the momentum going. The best bets for this week are below.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Play to: -3.0 (-120)
If these two teams were at full strength and the Browns hadn’t recently found the fountain of youth for Joe Flacco, this might be a different story. However, as it stands, it is getting harder and harder to see Houston’s path to success this week. CJ Stroud (concussion) is looking doubtful, and even if he does play, the rookie will have had limited practice time and be playing without Tank Dell (IR) and potentially Nico Collins (calf) who hasn’t practiced yet for Week 16.
The Browns also got back CB Denzel Ward in the secondary last week and present a far tougher challenge for Case Keenum. Keenum was able to make some plays down the stretch in Week 15 against a Tennessee secondary that got fat on an early lead and couldn’t wake up in time to seal the win for the Titans in the fourth quarter.
The Browns' defense likely won’t repeat that mistake. They’ve allowed just 5.2 yards per attempt over their last three games and are fifth in INTs and fifth in pressure rate.
Dec 17, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (85) runs the ball as Chicago Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson (33) tackles him around the legs during the fourth quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
Further, with Cleveland’s QB situation stabilized, and Houston ranking just 28th in yards per attempt against, this looks like a fantastic matchup for their offense. The red-hot David Njoku will go up against a secondary that has allowed the second-most receptions and fourth-most yards this year to opposing TEs. Throw in a fully healthy Amari Cooper and Flacco may push for his third straight game with over 300 passing yards.
This number has been on the move toward the Browns since the Stroud news was announced, and when/if he does get announced as out, it will likely move more. I think this is a bad spot for Houston without Stroud, and even if it moves to -3.0 permanently, the Browns feel very playable at that number given the circumstances.
Bears vs. Cardinals under 43.5 points (-110; BetMGM)
- Play to: 43.0 (-110)
The Cardinals have almost no wide receivers left and will be relying on James Conner a ton in this game. Conner has been great of late, but the Bears' defense will surely slow him down down better than the 49ers and Steelers have as they come in ranked 3rd in rush EPA and 3rd in success rate against the run (per RBSDM.com).
Kyler Murray is also averaging just 5.74 yards per attempt over the last two games and struggled to a 56% completion rate in his last outdoor start in Pittsburgh against a far worse secondary than Chicago’s. Arizona’s last two road games have now gone significantly under their totals as well.
As for the Bears, they’ve turned into a solid under play of late (after starting 5-0 to the over). The last three Bears games have gone under their total and they rank sixth in run rate at home. Chicago will have little incentive to pass much given the potential for higher winds and the weaker Cardinals rush defense that ranks 29th in success rate against the run.
There is always the potential for defensive scores with QBs who carry the ball as much as Fields and Murray do, but this game just doesn’t have the makings of one with a lot of explosive plays on offense. I’d expect a lot of run plays, a fast-moving clock, and a game that stays under the current 43.5 total (which I also expect will get lower before game time).
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Carolina Panthers +5.0 (-110; BetMGM)
- Play to: +4.5 (-110)
The Panthers' offense may be setting records for futility, but the Panthers' defense is playing some underrated ball right now.
Carolina is 10th in yards per attempt against for the season and 8th in EPA per dropback since Week 12. They held the surprisingly decent Baker Mayfield to a 52% completion rate in Week 13, limited Derek Carr to just 4.52 yards per attempt in Week 14, and managed to get Desmond Ridder benched after holding the Falcons to just 7 points in their “thrilling” 9-7 win.
Dec 10, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard (30) rushes against New Orleans Saints safety Jordan Howden (31) during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Packers have struggled without Christian Watson in the lineup and may not have him back for this game either. On the other side of the ball, the Green Bay rush defense has been exploited by their last two opponents and will be a great opponent for RB Chuba Hubbard (see below) who has been the lone bright spot on offense for the Panthers of late.
Thus far, the Packers' young team has had trouble getting up for games against weaker opponents. Under Jordan Love, Green Bay is just 2-5 ATS against opponents with a sub .500 record, and 4-2 ATS against opponents with a winning record (per The Action Network). Love may ultimately win them the game, but I like the Panthers' run game and elite pass defense to keep this within the 5.0 points on offer for Carolina.
Chuba Hubbard over 68.5 rushing yards (-112; FanDuel)
- Play to: 72.5 (-110)
- Projection: 69.5
Long story short, I don’t think that Hubbard’s props or projections have yet to catch up to his late-season surge in usage.
In case you haven’t been paying attention to what’s been going on in Carolina (and no one would fault you for that), here’s a recap of Hubbard’s usage over the last three games (since Carolina gutted their coaching staff), and his usage in the three games prior to that move:
Week 10-12:
- Average 11.0 carries per game (low 9 carries, high 14 carries)
- Average 41.6 yards per game (low 23 yards, high 57 yards)
Week 13-15:
- Average 23.3 carries per game (low 22 carries, high 25 carries)
- Average 92.66 yards per game (low 87 yards, high 104 yards)
If you were just looking at those two sample sizes without knowing the situation, you’d have to assume these were two different players. Hubbard has also pushed Miles Sanders to the back burner (potentially for good) as the veteran could only manage to get on the field for 27% of the snaps last week (and took just 6 carries for 2 yards).
The Packers are also a great matchup. Green Bay ranks just 22nd in success rate against the run and is 31st in yards per carry against over the past two weeks (5.3 YPC). They’ve allowed a running back to go for over 85 yards on the ground against them in three straight games.
While Hubbard’s totals have risen, I don’t think they have risen to the point where we need to be concerned that we’re buying the absolute top just yet. Given his recent usage surge and the matchup, there still seems like lots of upside potential left in Week 16, making his over one to target once again.
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Brandon Aiyuk receiving yards 80+ (+135) / 100+ (+370) / 125+ (+800) (DraftKings)
- Play to: +125 | +350 | +750
Timing the Aiyuk breakout games this year has been a roller coaster. The third-year WR has broken the 100-yard barrier five separate times in 2023 (and gone over 125 yards four times). Unfortunately (for over-bettors and fantasy owners), he’s also gone under 50 yards in a game three times and under 60 yards seven times.
The good news? He’s coming into Week 16 off one of his worst outputs of the season—which has produced another good buy-low spot in the props department.
Aiyuk’s regular prop line of 61.5 receiving yards is about 6-7 yards lower than it was last week. However, if we’re playing for him to bounce back, then why not just play for another big game? Because when Aiyuk has gone over his regular prop, he hasn’t just gone over it by a little; he’s almost always sailed over it by margin.
In the six games that he’s cleared 60 yards receiving in 2023, Aiyuk has now averaged an astounding 124.0 yards per game.
The +370 odds available at the 100+ yard mark this week also look like they offer solid value as they suggest a 21.28% implied probability of him hitting this milestone against Baltimore. However, it’s a yardage total that he’s exceeded in 33.33% of his starts this year.
With the Ravens having better rush defenders than the Cardinals, I expect Brock Purdy to need to lean on Aiyuk far more in this spot, and it’s worth noting that Baltimore's secondary has had issues limiting big plays downfield of late—ceding over 100 yards to Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp respectively in Weeks 12 and 14. It’s as good a spot as any to target Aiyuk and chase some big payouts on Christmas Day.
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