Week 16 was another solid week for the best bets:
- Browns -2.5 ✅ (this also hit for anyone who bet at -3.5)
- Bears / Cardinals under 43.5 ✅
- Panthers +5.0 ✅
- Chuba Hubbard over 67.5 yards ✖️
- Brandon Aiyuk 80+ yards +130 and 100+ yards +350 ✅
We missed on Hubbard and the last leg on the Aiyuk ladder bet at 125+ yards, but just like the week prior with Cooper Kupp, if you played the 80+ yard and 100+ yard bets on Aiyuk, you made out very well.
For Week 17, we’ll again try and ride the good momentum. The best bets for this week are below.
Panthers +6.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Play to: +6.0 (-110)
Don’t look now, but the Panthers have covered in two straight games.
They beat Atlanta straight-up in a rain-filled slogfest and then held their own against the trending Jordan Love and Green Bay, narrowly missing out on another win in the 33-30 loss. And I think there are many reasons to think they will keep the momentum going this week too.
The Jaguars are hurting. They’ve already lost a main catalyst on offense in Christian Kirk, didn’t have Zay Jones (questionable) last week, and potentially may not have Trevor Lawrence (shoulder/knee) for this game either.
Lawrence sprained his shoulder last week in their loss to Tampa Bay and for the second time in four weeks wasn’t able to finish the game. Over the last four Jaguar games, he’s endured a shoulder sprain, knee sprain, and a concussion.
Even if he does play, there is no chance he’ll be operating at 100% and it’s worth noting that he has played some brutal football of late (likely due to injuries). He’s completed just 57% of his passes and thrown for just 6 yards per attempt over his last three games—a span where he has just 5 TD passes against 5 INTs.
When you throw in the fact that Bryce Young is coming off the best game of his career—and the fact the Panthers pass defense has improved (6.3 yards per attempt over their last three games)—this suddenly has the looks of two teams who perhaps aren’t much different in skill level or stature.
Regardless, the +6.5 points seems too high a hurdle to give a team like Jacksonville right now and I’m happy to take another shot that the Panthers (who have no incentive to pile up more losses) keep up this recent hot stretch and potentially even pull off the upset win.
You can tail the Panthers at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE!
Commanders +13.0 (-110; BetMGM)
- Play to: +12.5 (-110)
If betting on the Panthers wasn’t gross enough for you, may I recommend another NFC bottom-feeder in the Commanders? Despite losing their last six games, the Commanders are coming off a cover against the Jets, a game they had the lead in until the dying seconds of that game. Washington’s big comeback last week was also led by the man who will be under center this week in Jacoby Brissett.
Brissett has finished the last two games for the Commanders, and his line over those two appearances reads as follows: 9.73 yards per attempt (23 attempts) – 78% completion rate – 3 TDs (vs. no INTs).
Dec 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jacoby Brissett (12) throws the ball during the second half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Brissett also may be catching the 49ers in a good spot. San Francisco got beat up by the Ravens on the scoreboard last week and on the field. They ended the game with three O-linemen injured and had to sign offensive tackle Matt Pryor off waivers in an emergency depth move for this week. Rookie S Ji’Ayir Brown also got injured and is likely out for this week. Brock Purdy (stinger) looks to be OK, but he’s endured big hits two weeks in a row now and may be less than 100%.
This is also a terrible spot from a rest perspective for the 49ers. They played late on Monday night and now have to travel across the country (and multiple time zones) for an early Sunday start. Per The Action Network, teams have been in this spot 23 times over the last 20 years (short rest and traveling cross country for their next game) and are 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%). Washington are no world beaters, but they are 6-4-1 ATS as underdogs this year and are getting an upgrade at QB. It’s a good spot to take the points and play the Commanders to keep this one close.
Teaser: Green Bay +7.5 / Saints +8.5 (-120; DraftKings)
- Play to: Green Bay +7.0 / Saints +8.0 (-120)
The Packers should be healthier this week on offense. Jayden Reed has already returned to practice, and there is a chance that Christian Watson (hamstring) will return this week after a multi-week absence.
That should only up the chances of Green Bay keeping this game close on the arm of Jordan Love, who has been fantastic over his last five starts.
Over those five games, Green Bay is 3-2 straight up, with their only defeat of more than 3 points coming at the hands of the surging Buccaneers. Given the Vikings have won just once in their last six games, getting through the numbers of 3.0/4.0/7.0 with a Green Bay teaser leg looks solid.
The Saints take on a tougher opponent in Tampa Bay, but they have a big matchup advantage with Chris Olave (see below) and Rashid Shaheed against a poor secondary, and that alone should help New Orleans keep this game close. Derek Carr and New Orleans have been masters of garbage time as well, with just two of their eight losses on the year coming by eight or more points. One of those losses was to Tampa Bay in Week 4, but that game also featured a severely limited Carr (shoulder).
With Carr and all his weapons healthy, I expect enough late-game passing to erase any potential multiple-score deficit and keep this game within a TD as well.
You can tail the teaser on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!
Jacoby Brissett over 230.5 passing yards (-115; BetMGM)
- Projection: 232.4
- Play to: 234.5 (-110)
As mentioned above, Brissett has averaged a healthy 9.73 yards per attempt (23 attempts) and has a 78% completion rate over his last two games. Perhaps most encouragingly about Brissett’s recent run is the fact that he has been able to extract more big plays from WR Terry McClaurin—who went for over 100 yards against the Rams (his first 100-yard game of the year) thanks to some late-game downfield targeting from Brissett.
The 49ers aren’t necessarily a poor matchup either. They are dealing with multiple key injuries on defense including starting S Ji'Ayir Brown and starting CB Ambry Thomas. Teams facing the 49ers are also averaging a healthy 37.1 pass attempts per game this season, and the Commanders' defense (31st in EPA per play) is once again likely to cede a ton of big plays to the 49ers' league-leading offense—making it likely that Brissett is again forced to drop back 35+ times.
It’s also worth noting that between Weeks 4 to 12, Howell himself went over this total in eight of nine games and attempted 35 or more passes in five of those nine games. Given that we have Brissett as a small upgrade in our QB-Spread Value Chart on Fantasy Life, it’s not crazy to think that he can match or exceed Howell’s production from that run and fly over this smaller total in Week 17.
Ladder bet: Chris Olave receiving yards (bet365)
- 100+ yards +320
- 100+ yards + anytime TD +650
- 125+ yards +750
The last two ladder bets in this article have both featured WRs going for over 100+ yards. And both of those last two plays hit for us nicely as well.
- Cooper Kupp Week 15: 111 yards
- Brandon Aiyuk Week 16: 113 yards
So why not try to make it 3/3?
Dec 3, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) tackles New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Olave looks to be in a fantastic spot against Tampa Bay, who has allowed the most receiving yards and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year. New Orleans has also been terrible at running the ball of late (even Taysom Hill’s efficiency has dried up) and they face a Buccaneers defense that is fourth in EPA against the rush this season. With the division on the line, expect the Saints to go all out and lean heavily on Olave in this spot, who has broken the 100+ yard barrier five times this year, and three times in his last four games.
The second-year WR comes into this week off a game against the Rams where he posted a 91% route rate and a 33% target share. Overall, he’s seen nine or more targets in six of his last nine games.
Despite that efficiency, his +320 odds to go for 100+ yards on Bet365 this week have a 23.81% implied probability, giving us a nice edge to attack off his real-world performance (100+ yards in 5/13 games in 2023, 38.4% hit rate). He makes for a great player to shoot for the moon with in Week 17.
You can tail the Olave ladder at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1 or more after signing up below!
