It was a bit of a down week for the best bets in Week 17, but as my parents always told me, it’s OK to put the C-'s up on the fridge alongside the A+'s.
- Panthers +6.5 ✖️
- Packers / Saints teaser +7.0 /+8.5 ✅
- Commanders +13.0 ✖️
- Jacoby Brissett over 230.5 passing yards (DNP - Void)
- Chris Olave ladder play (yards) ✖️
To be fair, I would not have made the Commanders bet if I had known Brissett wasn’t going to play, but late-week injuries are always a risk when betting the NFL. Olave was disappointing—given how well Carr passed the ball last week—and I likely should not have pushed my luck by backing the Panthers twice in a row.
For Week 18, we’ll again try to rebound in what is often one of the hardest weeks to handicap given all the potential for late week and in-game personnel changes.
The best bets for this week are below.
Bears +3.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: Bears +3.0 (-120)
This is by far one of the most interesting games of the week. The Packers are coming in off a thumping of the Minnesota Vikings and can now book a playoff ticket with a win. They do have some momentum. The Packers are now 5-2 straight-up over their last seven games, and QB Jordan Love has complied the following stat line since Week 9 (via Ian Hartitz):
- 89.4 PFF pass grade (3rd)
- 7.5 YPA (12th)
- 67.1% completion rate (7th)
- 105.5 passer rating (3rd)
Oh, and head coach Matt LaFleur? He’s gone 18-2 SU as head coach of the Packers in games played in December.
And yet, despite all these trends and factors pointing in Green Bay’s direction, I’m taking the points with the Bears.
Dec 31, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) rushes the ball past Atlanta Falcons defensive end Zach Harrison (96) during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago may not make the playoffs this year, but they have been a buzzsaw down the stretch. The Bears are 5-0-1 ATS over their last six games and are number one in EPA per play on defense since Week 10 (which is when they acquired Montez Sweat from the Commanders).
While most people tend to side with the team that “has something to play for” in these Week 18 games, the trends have suggested that fading the team in high-pressure situations is the way to go. Via The Action Network, since 1990, teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention, when playing teams that need to win (over the final two weeks of the regular season), have gone 100-64-4 ATS.
The Packers are getting healthier, but they still had 21 players listed on the injury report to begin the week, with RB A.J. Dillon (neck), safety Rudy Ford (hamstring), outside linebacker Preston Smith (ankle), center Josh Myers (neck), linebacker Isaiah McDuffie (neck/concussion), and G Elgton Jenkins (knee and ankle) all opening with DNPs.
Getting three points with the Bears in this spot just seems like too many points to pass up.
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Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: Lions -3.5 (-120)
I bet this early in the week in our FREE Bet Tracker, when the line was at Lions -3.0, but would still play this at -3.5. Simply put, the Lions are playing to win this game. Despite needing upsets from both the Giants (+5.0) and Commanders (+13) to go from the number three seed to the number two seed, Dan Campbell has decided against resting his starters this week and seems hellbent on washing the taste of that last-minute loss to Dallas out of his mouth as quickly as possible.
And what better way to move on from that Cowboys loss than with a beat down of a divisional rival (whom you can also eliminate from playoff contention with a win)? The Vikings still have an outside shot at making the playoffs, but if we’re being honest, this team’s shot at doing anything this season ended last week against Green Bay, a game they lost in undignified fashion 33-10.
Minnesota is now going back to Nick Mullens at QB, which may be an upgrade over Jaren Hall but is still a huge boon for the Lions' defenders. Mullens has thrown six INTs over his last two starts—including four against Detroit in Week 16. The Vikings' defense, once regarded as a strength of their team, has also regressed of late and got shredded last week for 175 rush yards by Green Bay’s running backs (5.05 YPC). They now face the Lions' rushing attack, which is 3rd in EPA per rush since Week 10.
Indoors is also the place to trust Detroit and, specifically, Jared Goff. Goff is 24-8 ATS when playing in a dome for his career and is also 12-4 ATS after a loss when the next game is played at home (via The Action Network).
Nick Mullens, who I mentioned above, is a turnover machine and is now 6-12-1 ATS for his career as a starter. Detroit should handle their business this week.
Teaser: Cardinals +8.5 / Bengals -1.0 (-120, DraftKings)
- Play to: Cardinals +7.5 / Bengals -1.5
One thing we did get right last week was our teaser play, and I found another one I am bullish on for Week 18. Let’s start with the Cardinals. They downed the Eagles last week—in Philadelphia—using a power run game that likely made Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni somewhat jealous. James Conner has been a force in the back half of the year and averaged 5.18 yards per carry over his last three games, while the Cardinals offense now ranks second in EPA per rush and 8th in success rate per rush since Week 12.
They’ll take on the Seahawks, who are dead last in success rate and EPA per rush on defense since Week 12. Seattle beat Arizona 20-10 in Week 7 (when Arizona was without Kyler Murray), but Seattle hasn’t beat a team by more than 3 points since then.
In the other game, the Browns are officially resting as many starters as possible and starting Jeff Driskel at QB—a player they brought in mid-season and signed off the practice squad this week. Driskel is a sacrificial lamb and hasn’t made a start since 2020. The Bengals don’t have anything to play for (they were eliminated last week), but they are planning on playing at least some of their star players, and Jake Browning will be at QB, providing a nice edge over Driskel.
While the Browns are playing not to get hurt (and for the game to end as fast as possible), the Bengals will have players motivated by incentives and milestones—not to mention the pride of ending the year with a winning record (if they win). Browning himself would love to end on a quality start so he could secure a backup position.
Even if the Bengals rest a few big names, they are in perfect Wong teaser range, as we can push them under multiple key numbers, and well under a FG, at their current line.
You can tail the teaser at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!
Player prop: Stefon Diggs over 59.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 65.0
- Play to: 62.5 (-110)
Stefon Diggs started the year with five games of 100+ receiving yards in his first six starts. Then the Bills went through an offensive slump, changed coordinators, and now Diggs limps into this game (figuratively speaking, he’s not injured) having gone for less than 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven starts.
As much as I don’t like fighting trends, Diggs still looks like the same elite wide receiver to me when he’s on the field. While we can’t blame bad luck for all of his poor performances, he’s been involved in multiple games over the last few weeks where the Bills simply didn’t need to throw the ball much to win. The emergence of James Cook and Gabriel Davis for a game or two has also affected his targeting (he’s averaged just 6.75 targets over the last three weeks).
Dec 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) runs the ball pressured by Dallas Cowboys cornerback Stephon Gilmore (21) in the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Still, in a game against a regressing Miami passing defense, with everything on the line for Buffalo (playoffs, division title), I can’t see Diggs not playing a huge role. Miami has had trouble limiting elite WR1s in multiple spots this season and has allowed Zay Flowers and Cee Dee Lamb—two players who act as the primary targets on their respective teams—to go for 100+ yards in consecutive weeks. The Dolphins will also likely be without top corner Xavien Howard again, making it more likely Diggs will get free for a big play at some point.
We have Diggs projected for a potential breakout this week as well. His aggregate projection is set at 65.0 yards, and given that his recent production has been so poor, the fact he’s trending as more of an over-target is a good indication of how solid this matchup is. I like playing Diggs in this spot for a big finish and would even consider using his over in same-game parlays or targeting his alternate totals at 80+ or 100+ yards this week as well.
Ladder Bet: Drake London receiving yards - Falcons
- 75+ yards +350
- 100+ yards +900
- 125+ yards +1650
Let’s end the regular season with a bang. London has been a boom-or-bust type of player from a production standpoint all season. The second-year pro has gone for less than 50 yards on seven occasions but has also eclipsed the 75-yard mark four times in 2023. He’s also gone for over 100 yards twice and had a massive 10-catch, 172-yard game against another division rival in the Buccaneers back in Week 14.
The Saints are a tough pass defense but have been more prone to giving up big plays since losing top cornerback Marshon Lattimore before Week 9. Without Lattimore in the lineup, London was able to post a 5-catch, 91-yard game against the Saints, which to date has been his third-biggest output (from a yardage standpoint) of the season.
There is reason to think he can do one better this week too. The Falcons seem likely to have trouble running the ball in this spot as the Saints' defensive front has allowed just 4.0 yards per carry over their last three games and ranks 5th in success rate vs the run on defense.
London (who currently sits at 864 yards) is also within reach of his first 1000-yard season, so certainly if he gets off to a good start, the incentive for him to keep playing hard and earning targets down the stretch will be there (regardless of game script).
Of course, the main attraction here is the odds. Since London’s prop opened so low this week (44.5 receiving yards), there are massive odds available at the 75+ / 100+ / 125+ yard milestones. With Atlanta set as the underdog, and potentially being forced to drop back more late in this game, I like playing through all of them and hoping London is in a position late to aim for that 1000-yard mark and cash each leg of our ladder bet for Week 18.
