NFL Week 2 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.
Week 2 is historically one of my favorite weeks of the year.
People have a tendency to overreact, meaning that what happened in Week 1 carries outsized importance in the public’s mind. In some cases, we’ll see big movement in the betting market based off just one week of results.
That creates plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
I’m not saying that you should completely ignore everything you saw in Week 1. After all, it’s the most significant piece of information we’ve received so far. That said, it’s just one game. Teams have bad games all the time, so we shouldn’t throw out everything we thought we knew about each team heading into the season.
Let’s look at some of the biggest market adjustments heading into Week 2.
Chiefs Laying Less Than 3
The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champs, and they’ve made it to the AFC Championship in each year with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
In fact, they’ve hosted five straight AFC Championship games. They’re one of the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy once again in 2023, but they stumbled out of the gates with a loss to the Lions in Week 1.
Of course, there is a big caveat with that result.
Travis Kelce was unable to play vs. the Lions, and he’s easily the team’s top pass-catcher. Without Kelce, the rest of the receiving corps struggled mightily vs. the Lions, with Kadarius Toney literally handing them 7 points:
Fortunately, Kelce should be able to return to the lineup in Week 2. He was questionable heading into Thursday night, so with 10 days of rest, he’s a good bet to suit up vs. the Jaguars.
Despite that fact, the Chiefs have actually dipped below the key number of 3 on BetMGM. They’re currently listed at -2.5 at Jacksonville, and they’re in a phenomenal spot to bounce back.
For starters, the Chiefs may not be elite at covering big spreads, but they’re great at winning football games. When laying 3 points or fewer, they’re a ridiculous 19-6-1 ATS (including playoffs) with Mahomes at QB.
As long as Kelce is back in action, I’m all over the Chiefs against a Jags squad that struggled vs. the Colts.
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Lions Up to -5.5
While the Chiefs have been downgraded following their Week 1 performance, the Lions have gotten a boost. They were initially favored by just 2.5 points vs. the Seahawks on the lookahead line, but they’re all the way up to 5.5-point favorites on BetMGM.
I already mentioned why their result vs. the Chiefs wasn’t quite as impressive as it may seem, but the Lions weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders.
They managed just 368 yards of total offense, which was below their season average from last year. The Chiefs were without their best defender Chris Jones, in addition to Kelce, so it was a bit surprising that the Lions struggled to move the ball at times.
Still, a win over the Chiefs in Kansas City is going to do a lot in the eyes of the public.
Additionally, the Seahawks were embarrassed at home by the Rams, losing by 17 points despite taking the field as 5-point favorites.
The combination of the Seahawks loss and the Lions win has resulted in 3 points of value compared to the lookahead line, including two key numbers in 3.0 and 4.0.
Ultimately, it’s going to be tough to pass that up.
All Aboard the Packers Express
The Packers became a trendy team during the preseason, with Jordan Love showing promise in the exhibitions. They ultimately ended up as a sharp target in Week 1 vs. the Bears and easily dispatched their division rivals 38-20.
Love continued his impressive work, completing 15 of 27 passes for 245 yards and three scores, and the defense forced two turnovers.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) celebrates a victory against the Chicago Bears as he leaves the field during their football game Sunday, September 10, 2023, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. Green Bay won 38-20.
Unsurprisingly, the positive momentum continues to build in Green Bay.
They were listed as 1.5-point road underdogs vs. the Falcons on the lookahead line, but they’ve moved to 1-point favorites on BetMGM.
A 2.5-point move is pretty significant, although moving across zero isn’t the most important line move you’ll ever see. The percentage of games that end with a margin of less than three points is pretty minuscule, so the general premise remains the same: The Packers are going to need to win to cover.
The Falcons also secured a win in Week 1, but they weren’t nearly as impressive. Their offense managed just 221 total yards, but they capitalized on two interceptions from rookie quarterback Bryce Young.
Desmond Ridder remains a major question mark. He was efficient vs. the Panthers, completing 15 of 18 passes, but he managed just 115 yards and a touchdown.
The team was able to survive thanks to their running game and defense, but will that hold up vs. a superior opponent?
The biggest red flag remains the lack of involvement of the Falcons top pass-catchers. Kyle Pitts managed two catches and 44 yards on three targets, while Drake London failed to catch his only look.
If those two players can’t get more involved in the passing game, it’s going to be a problem.
The 49ers are a Wagon
The 49ers were one of the best teams in football last season, particularly with Brock Purdy at the helm. They were 5-0 with Purdy during the regular season, and they won two postseason contests before he got hurt. Essentially, Purdy was a perfect 7-0 in games where he didn’t get injured in 2022.
If Week 1 is any indication, Purdy doesn’t intend on picking up his first loss soon.
The Steelers were a popular sharp pick in Week 1, but the 49ers absolutely blew their doors off. They dominated in all phases of the game, and they cruised to a 27-7 lead early in the third quarter. They took their foot off the gas at that point, but the game could’ve been a lot uglier if the 49ers wanted to pour it on.
It’s worth remembering that the Steelers had an elite defense with T.J. Watt in the lineup last year. They averaged fewer than 17 points per game allowed, and they allowed 16 points or fewer in six straight to end the year.
If the 49ers can do that against a good defense, what do they have in store for the Rams?
The Rams may have gotten past the Seahawks in Week 1, but this is going to represent a serious step up in competition.
The 49ers are currently -6.5 on BetMGM, but they’re at -7.0 across most of the industry. If you’re looking to grab them, it’s probably best to do it early.
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Can The Bucs Do It Again?
Not much was expected of the Buccaneers this season. They were trying to replace the GOAT in Tom Brady, and Baker Mayfield didn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
However, the Buccaneers got off to a phenomenal start in Week 1 vs. the Vikings. They went into Minnesota is moderate underdogs and managed to secure an outright win.
Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) leaves the field after the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Is it possible the Bucs were undervalued heading into the year? My gut says no.
The Vikings out-gained the Bucs by more than 125 yards, but they turned it over three times. Minnesota’s wounds were more self-inflicted than caused by Tampa Bay.
The narrative for the Bucs completely flips in Week 2. They were initially listed as 1.5-point home underdogs vs. the Bears, but they’ve moved all the way to 3-point favorites.
Even though Chicago was terrible vs. Green Bay, this line screams overreaction. I will almost certainly be locking in a play on the Bears at +3.0.
