One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as closing line value—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 2 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Chicago Bears
- Current Line: -110; DraftKings
- Bet To: -6.5 (-115)
The Caleb Williams era officially got underway in Week 1, and the Bears managed to emerge with a victory. All is good with the world, right?
To quote the great Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friends.”
The Bears' victory over the Titans was extremely fluky. They fell into a 17-0 hole, and they trailed 17-3 at halftime. The Bears outscored the Titans by 21 in the second half, but almost all of that scoring came from somewhere other than the offense. They had a blocked punt that they converted into a touchdown, and they had a pick-six as well. Add in two field goals, and the only time the offense put the ball into the end zone was on a two-point conversion.
Williams’ final numbers left a lot to be desired. He completed just 14 of 29 passes for less than 100 yards, good for an average of 3.2 yards per attempt. Overall, the Bears were out-gained by the Titans by nearly 100 yards.
The Titans had one of the worst passing defenses in football last season, so it was an extremely lackluster performance. What’s going to happen when the Bears run into a team that isn’t going to gift them 14 points?
We’ll find out in Week 2. They’ll travel to Houston to take on a Texans squad that appeared to be in midseason form in their first game of the year. They rolled up 29 points and 417 yards vs. the Colts, so the Bears offense is going to need to play better if they have any chance of keeping up.
This line is already up to 6.5 at some locations, but there’s still a 5.5 hanging at DraftKings. I’ve already grabbed it — which you can find in the NFL Bet Tracker—and I think you can comfortably play this at anything better than a touchdown. Williams might be the guy eventually, but we’re clearly not there yet.
New York Giants (+3.0) at Washington Commanders
- Current Line: -120; BetMGM
- Bet To: +3.0 (-120)
Let’s continue to pick on the rookie quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels wasn’t quite as unimpressive as Williams, particularly as a runner. He racked up 88 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and the Commanders did manage to put up 20 puts vs. the Buccaneers.
That said, a lot of that damage came in garbage time. Daniels’ first score didn’t come until there was less than two minutes to go in the third quarter, and his second TD came on the Commanders' final drive.
The Commanders’ defense simply had no answers for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. They put up 37 points and nearly 400 yards of total offense, and they probably could’ve won by more if they didn’t take their foot off the gas.
Despite the awful showing by their defense, the Commanders will take the field as favorites vs. the Giants in Week 2. New York was dismal in their first game of the year, but the Vikings have an underrated roster. Defensively, the Commanders don’t appear to be in the same ballpark.
Asking a rookie QB to win a game this early into his career — let alone cover is a favorite — might be too much. Rookie QBs were just 1-2 straight up and ATS in Week 1, and they’re now just 6-17-1 ATS in Weeks 1 through 3 over their past 24 starts. Most of those covers have come as underdogs: They’re just 3-20-1 straight up over the same time frame.
Getting the full field goal here is key. The Giants are +3.0 (-120) at a few books at the time of writing, but they’re +2.5 everywhere else. I’m not sure if the 3.0s will be available for long, so I’m taking advantage while I can.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers
- Current Line: -112; DraftKings
- Play To: -2.5 (-120)
If I can get a reasonably priced -2.5 when the rest of the industry is at -3.0, I’m going to take it nine times out of 10. Three remains the biggest key number in all of football, and we’re getting it with the Colts in this spot on DraftKings.
Of course, the only reason the Colts are favored at all is because of the injury to Jordan Love. While he avoided disaster in Brazil, the early reports have him missing three-to-six weeks with a sprained MCL.
That leaves the Packers with two options at QB. They could go with Malik Willis, whom they traded for at the end of the preseason. He was the team’s backup QB in Week 1, but it remains to be seen if he knows the system well enough to start. Sean Clifford is the other option. He’s been with the team longer, but he’s yet to see any meaningful NFL action.
Regardless of which QB gets the nod, the Packers’ offense is going to be in trouble. Willis does have a 1-2 record as a starter, but he’s still looking for his first touchdown pass compared to three interceptions. Overall, he’s averaged a paltry 3.2 adjusted yards per attempt for his career.
Ultimately, Matthew Freedman has the downgrade from Love to his backups as the second-biggest drop in football. Only Lamar Jackson is worth more compared to his backup, so it’s a monster downgrade.
The Colts may not be a great team, but they won nine games last year in a brutal set of circumstances. They looked good in Week 1 as well, covering the spread against a Texans team that is favored to win the division.
The Packers’ D left a lot to be desired vs. the Eagles, and I trust Shane Steichen to lead the Colts to points all season. I can’t say the same about the Packers without Love under center. I’m happy to lay less than a field goal in this spot.
