Welcome to Week 2 of MB Betting Life’s NFL Survivor Series! It’s the inimitable Coach Gene Clemons and yours truly, John Laghezza, right here every Thursday with our thoughts, takes and picks to help you outwit, outlast, and outplay the competition.

Let's jump on in!

Laghezza surveys the Survivor landscape

The biggest favorites always make the best Survivor starting point. So who’s laying the heaviest Week 2 wood? Four teams (all at home) enter mid-week implying win rates greater than three out of four (-300)…

  • BAL vs LV: (-470); 82.5% Implied Probability
  • DET vs TB: (-340); 77.3% Implied Probability
  • HOU vs CHI: (-300); 75.0% Implied Probability
  • PHI vs ATL: (-300); 75.0% Implied Probability

Who’s the public on? Four teams aggregate at or near a double-digit selection rate

  • BAL vs LV : ~30% Selected — Next 3 @ DAL, vs BUF, @ CIN
  • LAC at CAR: ~27% Selected — Next 3 @ PIT, vs KC, BYE
  • PHI vs ATL: ~12% Selected — Next 3 @ NO, @ TB, BYE
  • HOU vs CHI: ~10% Selected — Next 3 @ MIN, vs JAX, vs BUF

Note: I pull these numbers and aggregate from several sources, including numberfire, SurvivorGrid, and my own projections.

Takeaways:

Converting all the money lines into win percentages left me interested in Detroit’s line:

It's curious to see the second-largest line on the board bring in little to no excitement. And I agree — avoiding Tampa Bay appears to make sense after seeing the Bucs boast one of the few well-oiled offenses on Sunday. Could wisdom of the Survivor crowd in the form of our selection projections act as a leading indicator for closing line value? If this closes at DET (+6.5) or (+6), it’s worth considering.

My second major note is the massive inflection point for the entire current Carolina organization. The Chargers play wound up as my runner-up, so I get it. As poorly as the Panthers played Sunday, it’s easy to join the dogpile. The thing is, I’m afraid it’s a trap. Los Angeles is not a great team despite good QB play; they currently rank dead last in 1st downs/drive. Plus they’re traveling cross-country for the dreaded 1 pm east coast kickoff — two strikes I’m not quite ready to cope with this early in the tournament should the Bolts lay an egg. 

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Gene's Week 2 Survivor strategy tips

Shoutout to the Seahawks and the 12s for taking care of business in Week 1. If you rode with us, you lived to fight another day. Apologies to the Bengals pickers out there:

The key in Week 2 of any survivor league is to not overreact to Week 1. The Bengals losing to the Patriots does not mean Cincinnati is bad; it also does not mean the Patriots are good. It's just new information and the truth is, if you survived Week 1, you should be examining what made that game go differently than we all expected it to go. Did we miss something, or are we overreacting to what could have just been a bad game? The Patriots look exactly like the team we thought they would be. A heavy run game, management, zero turnovers from the quarterback, and solid defensive play. The Bengals did not look explosive and they put the ball on the ground a couple times. That was the difference in the game. This week, they play the Chiefs on the road — that should be unsettling.

A Week 2 strategy should be to look for teams that could have easily been on the winning side of their Week 1 matchup, but came up just shy of the victory. They will feel as if they let a game get away and normally they are locked in and focused on correcting the mistakes that left them short of the win.

John Laghezza's NFL Week 2 survivor pick

Outside a couple early mishaps backed up against their own goal line, Seattle delivered a relatively sweat-free Week 1 Survivor win — let’s keep that momentum going.

I won’t fake disdain for stats and analytics, you all know my nose stays buried in the spreadsheets. That said, I know it’s only a piece of the puzzle, especially when dealing with small samples. There’s a ton of parity in the league right now, especially this week with zero double-digit spreads. Not to mention the chalky Bengals loss to New England just put everyone on edge (or took them completely out of pools). I’m leaning proactively into my preseason takes rather than reactively chasing what I just saw.

All bias aside, everyone pegged the Jets for at least nine wins on the back of one of the most talented rosters in the league. The fact they’re only four point favorites against this Titans squad feels wrong, according my modeling (see all the betting odds across all the major sportsbooks here). Not only did Tennessee lose — it was historical for all the wrong reasons:

I refuse to throw away months of research for one game on the road against the best squad in the NFC. Lots of teams would look shaky against these Niners. Fact remains, the Titans' offense played horrendous Week 1, putting up a pathetic 4.0 Yard/Play and fifth-worst offensive EPA/Play. I may be betraying any rules regarding home teams-only — but we more than make up for it in QB play.

When all else fails, attack the worst available QB with the best possible defense. Will Levis posted an astoundingly bad 4.0 Yards/Attempt on a 56% Expected Completion rate. Woof. What could you possibly project realistically against a Jets defense champing at the bit to get right? For what it's worth, I asked A.I. to animate my pick

 

Gene Clemons' Week 2 NFL Survivor Pick

The team the Chiefs beat last week will be foaming at the mouth to get in the win column this week. The Raiders offense looked pedestrian against a Chargers defense that was ranked 23rd in total defense last season and is breaking in a new defensive scheme. The Ravens, on the other hand, were ranked No. 1. In game one they made life difficult for the Chiefs and came up just short of the win. The offense seems to be figuring out how they will divvy up the load but Lamar Jackson looks to be back to the explosiveness that made him a 1000-yard rusher and Isaiah Likely's emergence means another weapon to deal with for the Raiders. That’s before you consider the Raiders have to come cross country to play a 1 pm game.

The other choice is taking a team going on the road with the youngest quarterback in the NFL. Anthony Richardson and the Colts are traveling to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, who are without starting quarterback Jordan Love. If there was ever a time to take advantage of a wounded football team, it's the first game without their starting QB — especially when the backup QB (Malik Willis) has only been on the team for a couple weeks. The Packers added Willis via trade after the preseason was over. It is impossible to know what this offense will look like with him at quarterback. We do know that the defense struggled to stop the Eagles' run game in Week 1. The Colts have a very formidable run game led by Jonathan Taylor and Richardson possesses a nuclear option on the ground and through the air. After coming up a couple points short against Houston, they will be, like the Jets D Laghezza mentioned earlier, champing at the bit to come away with a win in Week 2.

Yes, the Colts look tempting with the wounded Packers in front of them and I would understand anyone taking them… but I will go with the Ravens to take care of business. 

And like my esteemed colleague above, I ran “the Ravens take care of business” through Adobe Firefly. Enjoy this one, folks!

So many people get dropped from their pools in the first three weeks, so it's important to not take risks until you get past the re-buy stage. Once you see the numbers officially dwindle, then you can start setting up plays for multiple weeks. Good luck in Week 2 and we hope to see you still alive next week!