NFL Week 3 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, Moneylines, and Props to Bet.

If Week 2 is overreaction week, then Week 3 might well be named the hyperventilation chamber.

Any team that hasn’t produced a win yet, and any player yet to produce above-average stats, is now on red alert—as their season teeters on the brink of catastrophe.  

Naturally, as a connoisseur of underdogs and broken things, I’ve found one team and player for our bets that fits this mold well. Along with some other more sane plays. 

Join me as we try and turn these pumpkins back into glass slippers in our Week 3 best bets...

Spread: Broncos +6.5 (-109, BetMGM)

The Broncos are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS to start the year but did have legitimate chances at winning both games. On a brighter note, they also saw some improvement from Russell Wilson (308-3-1, 5-56) against Washington, as the former Subway sandwich artist averaged 9.6 yards per pass attempt in Week 2 (up from 6.3 in Week 1).

Overall, he now ranks fourth among quarterbacks in the EPA + CPOE composite ranking on the year. 

Sep 17, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) looks to pass in the second quarter against the Washington Commanders at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Even if Wilson has slowed down a bit, he’s playing well enough to give the Broncos a chance at the win every week—something that will eventually pay off with better results.

I don’t necessarily expect Denver to pull off the upset, but they are in an interesting spot for betting. Historically, 0-2 teams who have also yet to cover (0-2 ATS) have done insanely well against the spread in Week 3, producing a 50-29-1 ATS record since 2016—per The Action Network. 

Miami has certainly looked good, but the market may also be overvaluing them just a touch. Their run defense has been an issue, and they needed a late review on a late fourth-quarter drive to put the Patriots away.

With Jaylen Waddle (concussion) also looking doubtful and Tyreek Hill having missed a little practice time as well, Denver seems like they’ll have a much better chance of hanging around in this game. 

You can tail the Broncos on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Moneyline: Saints (+105, Caesars) 

Just like last week, New Orleans again looks like a good target to back for a straight-up win. 

The Saints may not be the prettiest team to watch, but they are doing exactly what they need to do to win games. Their defense has created turnovers at a high rate and taken advantage of sub-par quarterback play.

They found ways to produce on the ground against Carolina (Taysom Hill undertaker.gif) and have allowed just 4.8 yards per pass against. Even their rush defense, while not the strength of their team, managed to limit Derrick Henry to just 63 yards in Week 1. 

Green Bay managed to get by Chicago in Week 1, but given the Bears' issues, it’s hard to say how much credit we should be giving them for completing that task.

The Packers' inability to close out Atlanta last week is also troublesome. They allowed the Falcons' RBs to steamroll them late and weren’t able to take advantage of three Jordan Love TD passes against a weak secondary—and a D-line that brought almost no pressure. 

The Saints thus far rank 12th in QB pressures and as a unit will present Love with his toughest test yet. Even if the Packers do get Christian Watson (hamstring) back for this game, the speed on offense for the Saints has been able to flip the field for them on multiple occasions. 

As we saw against Carolina—a game they had well covered prior to a late garbage time TD—New Orleans still feels a little undervalued by the marketplace.

They’re a solid back once again, against an unproven Packers team, at +100 or better.

You can tail this on Caesars, where your first bet is on the house! Get your first bet of up to $1,000 on Caesars when you create your new account below:

Total: Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys Under 43.0

This game is interesting from a total perspective. Thus far, there have been far more bets to come in on the over side of the 43.0 game total (77%, via VSIN), while the under has seen a far bigger handle (total money), getting 56% of the action.  

Sep 17, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) runs the ball against New York Jets cornerback Michael Carter II (30) in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The inclination may be to think that Dallas may hit the over on their own, given how poorly the Cardinals grade out as a team. However, there is also the perspective that the market could be undervaluing the Cardinals' defense by just a touch. They’ve allowed just 4.0 yards per carry against and are tied for second in sacks with 9.0. 

Maybe there is some regression looming in the pressure department, but even last week bettors needed an unconscious late rally by Daniel Jones to get to the over. 

It also seems unlikely that Dallas’s offense will be playing from behind late in this game like New York did, and under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have also tended to be more conservative on the road.

Since 2021, they’ve compiled a 7-13-0 record to the under in away games, which is the sixth-best under rate in the league (for away teams) during that span. 

A boring Dallas win where they limit mistakes and simply run out the clock with Tony Pollard is a boring game script, but also the one that seems most likely to play out—based on both the opponent and Dallas’s tendencies under their current coach. The under at anything 43.0 or bigger feels like a solid target. 

Prop (Over): Kyle Pitts over 33.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

There is good reason to be skeptical of any sentence that includes Kyle Pitts and “over” beside each other. His Week 2 output (2-15, 5 targets) was about as bleak as it gets for a player of his talent level, and seeing Jonnu Smith (4-47, 6 targets) outproduce him was jarring—even for the most devoted of Pitts fans. 

Despite the disappointment, Pitts still had a double-digit target share in Week 2 and his 91% route participation rate remains unchanged from Week 1. While betting overs is always slightly more risky, Pitts’s 40.5 yard projection on Fantasy Life this week does indicate there is some real upside lurking with him in this matchup. 

The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards against to the TE position through two weeks and will also be without their starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson (IR). The stars align so well this week for Pitts that we might even look to take this bet a step further. 

BetMGM often has player milestone lines for receivers at 50/75/100 yards, and Pitts’s absurd after-the-catch ability (remember he posted 44 yards in Week 1 on two catches) makes him live to hit some of these in this soft matchup.

If you’re going to go over on such a volatile player, you might as well go big or go home, and Pitts, if he hits, seems likely to knock it out of the park this week in a prime matchup. 

Prop (Under): Allen Robinson under 36.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

This under lines up perfectly from a lot of angles.

First, we have a wide receiver in Allen Robinson who is way past his prime and may be on the verge of getting phased out of the Steelers' offense altogether. 

As we can see above from this week’s Utilization Report, Robinson actually saw his routes, target share, and air yards all go down in Week 2—the first week the team was also without Diontae Johnson.

That’s no bueno, and with the Steelers having invested some draft capital in a player like Calvin Austin III, it’s hard to see them pushing Robinson much longer if he’s not going to produce when the opportunity arises. 

Given the Steelers have also allowed the most QB pressures to date thus far, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a run-heavy game plan implemented against Las Vegas, who has a terrible rush defense.

Robinson is projected for 32.8 yards (and that might even be optimistic) on Fantasy Life this week and sets up as one of my favorite under bets for Week 3. 

Favorite TD Prop: Michael Pittman (+225, DraftKings)

Pittman has managed eight catches in each of his first two games while also posting some monster underlying usage rates, including a 47% air yards share and 39% team target share from Week 2. 

While the third-year WR was doing fine with Anthony Richardson (concussion), his odds of landing in the end zone likely increase with a pocket passer like Gardner Minshew under center—and with Richardson still not at practice as of Thursday, Minshew projects as the likely starter at this point.

The Ravens' secondary remains banged up with Marlon Humphrey (questionable) and Marcus Williams (out) injured, and allowed Tee Higgins, another big-bodied possession receiver, to post an 8-89-2 line against them in Week 3.

Pittman’s +225 anytime odds look well worth grabbing, and looking at him as a multiple TD candidate makes some sense given the situation as well.

You can tail Pittman on DraftKings, where you can also get $200 in bonus bets by placing a first bet of $5 or more. Simply sign up below to get started!

For more TD props, make sure you check out the Week 3 TD Bets, which also has recommendations for SNF and MNF.