NFL Week 4 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, Moneylines, and Props to Bet.
Welcome to the week 4 best bets article.
Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker. Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.
If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.
Week 4 Spread: New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0 (-115, Caesars)
The Buccaneers got exposed in a harsh manner last Monday and now have to travel west on a short week to face a division rival. They’ll almost certainly be without at least one starting cornerback in Jamel Dean, who hasn’t practiced as of Thursday, while their other starting corner, Carlton Davis, sat out last week and hasn’t practiced in full yet, as of Thursday.
Davis and Saints WR Michael Thomas have a history as well:
With Thomas back in form, this could be a trouble matchup for the Buccaneers if Davis is less than 100%.
The Saints may be without their starting quarterback, but the dropoff from Derek Carr (shoulder - questionable) to Jameis Winston isn’t necessarily a severe one. Winston and Carr were nearly the same in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) on a per game basis last year—and Winston did move the ball into scoring position against the Packers for a potential game-winning field goal (that was promptly missed).
The 3.0 spread seems to suggest these teams are relatively even, but coming off a blowout loss, and with both of their starting corners ailing, it’s hard to see that angle from a Buccaneers perspective.
While neither of these coaches have been kind to bettors, I like the idea of going against Todd Bowles more in this spot. For his career as a head coach, Bowles’s teams have been terrible as underdogs, posting a 19-28-3 ATS when getting points (per Action Network).
The Buccaneers are also just 3-7 straight up against New Orleans and 2-8 ATS over the last 10 meetings between these two teams. A quick bounce-back for the Saints this week seems likely.
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Week 4 Moneyline: Houston Texans +126 (Fanduel)
This game feels like the wrong team is favored to an extent. The Texans' offense has been gaining steam every week with CJ Stroud, who is coming off the best game of his career after posting a 66% completion rate and a 9.13 yards per attempt mark against the Jaguars.
You could argue the Texans were the beneficiaries of some broken plays against Jacksonville, but they also took advantage of the mistakes their opponents made and were able to stop a potent passing attack, despite being down numerous of their best defenders—many of whom could be back for this week’s game.
Sep 24, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) and quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrate a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the fourth quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports
The big issue for Houston in this matchup will of course be dealing with the Steelers' pressure (they rank first in overall QB pressures on the season). However, Stroud’s confidence in the pocket means that the Steelers' weaker secondary could also be ripe for another beating—similar to what Brock Purdy put on them in Week 1.
The Steelers' offense may have gotten its act together for a few quarters against the Raiders, but this is also still a team down its best WR in Diontae Johnson, and a unit that willing gave Najee Harris (3.4 YPC against the Raiders) 19 touches last week. There is good reason not to trust that OC Matt Canada won’t do the same this week against the Texans, whose rush defense has held up well for the most part under Demeco Ryans.
Finally, while Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog is well known, he's far less scary as a favorite, especially on the road where Pittsburgh is just 18-18-1 ATS over the last 10 years.
With this spread so close, Pittsburgh failing to cover most likely results in a Houston win this week, making the current Texans moneyline odds appealing to back at +120.
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Week 4 Total: Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos over 45.5 (-110, BetRivers)
Arguably the worst defenses in the league going up against each other, and yet the total remains mild enough at just 45.5. The Bears aren’t the Dolphins, or anything close to them, but they should be able to run the ball against a Denver defense that ranks last in defensive DVOA and DVOA against the rush. Expect the Broncos to potentially stiffen a little as a group on defense—but you can’t fix Humpty Dumpty in a day.
Justin Fields should have a chance to show off his rushing ability, and he ranks second in the league among all quarterbacks in broken tackles this year.
On the flip side, the Broncos' offense is likely getting a touch underrated by this total as well. Denver’s offense is the best unit in this game and has been decent enough to date, ranking out 14th in overall DVOA on the season. Russell Wilson comes in playing well and has averaged a healthy 8.8 yards per attempt over his last two games.
Long story short, the Broncos' offense should be motivated and seems like it could take care of a lot of the points needed to hit the over on their own, against a miserable Bears side. Given Denver’s own struggles, projecting Fields to, at worst, rack up some late points against prevent defense (or regular defense as they call it in Denver) likely gets us over the total this Sunday.
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Week 4 NFL Player Props
Tutu Atwell over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
Atwell comes into the week averaging 14.3 yards per catch, with a 13.02 aDOT and a 33% total air yards share on the season. Last week he posted a 28% team target share and a 37% air yards share against the Bengals, both marks which led the team. Despite the increased usage and great downfield targeting, Atwell’s receiving O/U’s for Week 4 are still 20-22 yards lower than teammate Puka Nacua’s—making him look like the far more undervalued of the two players in the prop market right now.
Until Cooper Kupp comes back, the likelihood is that both Atwell and Nacua are going to continue to produce, but right now the marketplace is putting a way higher premium on Nacua. To put a bow on this, the Rams will also face off against a Colts team that has a thinner secondary, ranks 22nd in yards per attempt on the season, and has allowed the seventh most receiving yards to opposing WRs.
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell (5) dives for the end zone before the play is called back after a video review in the first quarter of the NFL Week 3 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. The game was tied 6-6 at halftime. Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
Atwell seems so undervalued this week (he’s projected for 5.0 rec. and 66.4 yards on Fantasy Life) that looking at his alternate lines at 75+ and 100+ yards also makes sense. Both of these teams are top 10 in plays per game, and if the game turns into a shootout, Atwell could certainly put in another 100+ yard day, as he did against another weak secondary in Seattle in Week 1.
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Mac Jones over 211.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Jones only threw the ball 29 times for 201 yards last week against the Jets, but the fact they were playing Zach Wilson in terrible weather conditions certainly had something to do with the outcome. The fact is, the Patriots have shown us that under new OC Bill O’Brien they are not going to be afraid to throw the ball this year, especially if they get down early.
In his first two weeks, while playing against opponents who have winning records, Jones averaged 48 pass attempts and around 275 passing yards per game. The game script in both those contests (against the Eagles and Dolphins) had the Patriots down early, and they’ll enter this week as +7.0 road underdogs against Dallas.
The Cowboys should be in a feisty mood after losing to Arizona but are also down their best corner after losing Trevon Diggs two weeks ago, and gave up 9.0 yards per attempt last week to Joshua Dobbs.
You could also look at going over on Jones’s pass attempt props (once they are released), but his 230.5 yard projection for this week on Fantasy Life suggests there’s a solid edge to attack his yards with an over in Week 4 as well.
Week 4 Anytime TD Prop
Cam Akers (+390, DraftKings)
If you watched last week’s thriller between the Vikings and Chargers, you saw Alexander Mattison once again fail to produce inside the red zone. Mattison thus far has produced just 6 yards on 8 red zone carries and has produced -4.0 yards on 4 carries inside the red zone. To say the Vikings may be willing to look another way this week when they get inside the red zone is an understatement.
Akers will almost certainly be rotated in during this week’s game, and it’s quite likely he’ll look better than Mattison, who has also produced just 3.97 yards per carry this season. Akers's anytime TD odds aren’t likely to stay this elevated until kickoff—especially if there is news confirming Akers's bigger role—so acting quick on the current +390 is certainly advisable.
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