NFL Week 4 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

It was a brutal day for the public on Sunday.

The Cowboys, Jaguars and Ravens all lost outright as favorites of at least a touchdown, which is never a good thing for the average bettor. They tend to love the big favorites, so when they go down, the public typically goes down.

It’s just more proof that anything can happen on a week-to-week basis in the NFL. Well, anything except the Bears beating the Chiefs.

This early in the season — when the information is the most limited — is the time when casual bettors tend to become too overconfident based on what we’ve seen over a small sample size.

We still have two contests on Monday night, but let’s turn the page to Week 4. These are five spots that jumped out to me early that can provide some value. The goal is to earn as much closing line value as possible — otherwise known as CLV — before the sharps have a chance to gobble up all the value.

Let’s dive in.

Embrace the Uncertainty With the Saints

The Saints blew a 17-point fourth quarter victory on Sunday, with the Packers rallying for 18 unanswered points. It was a win for analytics, while the Saints suffered their first defeat of the season.

Unfortunately, the blown lead was far from the biggest story in New Orleans.

Quarterback Derek Carr suffered in injury in the third quarter, which caused him to be removed from the game. It appears as though he’s avoided disaster, with NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reporting that Carr suffered an AC joint sprain:

That means that Carr’s season isn’t over, but it puts his status for Week 4 in jeopardy.

A quarterback injury always puts the sportsbooks in a tough spot. They’re basically forced to predict what they think is going to happen a week in advance.

As bettors, that means we have the opportunity to take advantage.

The Saints are currently listed as 3-point home favorites for their Week 3 matchup vs. the Buccaneers. I think grabbing the three points with the Bucs is clearly the right decision at this point in the week.

If Carr is eventually ruled out, this number will likely decrease a bit further. In that instance, we would have a bit of CLV with our bet, including the most important key number in all of football.

If Carr is ruled in, we can always pivot later in the week. We could look to target the Saints at that point, even if the line moves back in their favor slightly.

In other words, the potential reward vastly outweighs the risk. We’re seeing that play out in Week 3, with those who were wise enough to grab the Rams +6.5 against the Bengals sitting on a prime ticket. If Burrow plays, they can always hedge out of their bet, but they’re currently drowning in Sklansky bucks.

There’s no guarantee that happens again with the Saints, but I want to be in that position if it does.

The Jets are a Disaster

The Jets entered the season with arguably the highest expectations in franchise history. They added a Hall of Fame quarterback to a team with plenty of young talent on both sides of the ball, and the hope was they could return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1969.

Unfortunately, Jets’ fans can’t have nice things.

Aaron Rodgers went down on the team’s first drive, and things have been a disaster with Zach Wilson at quarterback. They managed to secure a win against the Bills in Week 1 — largely due to four Josh Allen turnovers — but they’ve been outscored 45-20 over their past two contests.

At this point, most people wouldn’t trust Wilson to make their breakfast. He’s looked so incompetent that any goodwill he built up while getting a “PhD in quarterbacking” from Rodgers this offseason is completely gone.

Now, the Jets have to take on the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

While the Jets were struggling to post 200 yards of total offense, the Chiefs absolutely steamrolled the Bears in Week 3. They were up 34-0 at halftime, and most of the starters got to rest in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs had looked shaky through the first two weeks, but they reminded everyone that as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, the AFC still runs through them.

With that in mind, this number could get out of hand. The Chiefs were listed as 2.5-point favorites when this line first came out, which was when Rodgers was expected to be at the helm. Now, this figure is all the way up to nine.

It’s safe to say that this number could be 20 and the public would still be on the Chiefs.

The bigger question is what will the sharps do in this spot? Personally, I want nothing to do with the Jets. If they fall into an early hole — which can definitely happen vs. the Chiefs — Wilson has the potential to implode. If the game stays competitive, the coaching staff is going to run the most boring, vanilla offense in an effort to limit Wilson’s mistakes. Either way, they’re not going to move the ball.

I’m willing to take the Chiefs at anything less than 10 points, and I could see this number eclipsing double-digits quickly.

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Buy Low on the Cowboys

The Cowboys got caught with their pants down in Week 3. They were atop the market-based power ratings, and they took the field as double-digit favorites in Arizona vs. the Cardinals.

Not only did they fail to cover, they managed to lose the game by 12 points. What the heck happened?

For starters, I think the Cowboys were clearly overrated. The Giants and Jets have both looked terrible to start the year, so the Cowboys’ performances were inflated their ineptitude.

More importantly, the team was down three starters on the offensive line vs. the Cardinals. Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz were both inactive, while Tyron Smith was active but didn’t play. Smith hasn’t played all season, but losing the other two had a clear impact.

Sep 24, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) looks on prior to the game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Both players were officially listed as questionable heading into the game, so that provides some optimism that they’ll be able to return.

Additionally, the Cowboys also provide a bit of value. They were listed as 7-point home favorites vs. the Patriots on the lookahead line, but they’re down to just -6.5 at certain locations.

A half point might not seem like much, but 7 is a key number. I also haven’t been particularly impressed by the Patriots this season, who struggled to move the ball once again in Week 3.

Ultimately, grabbing the Cowboys at -6.5 feels like the right move.

If it moves down a bit further, we’re not really losing much. However, if it goes back to 7, I’ll regret not making the bet. I’m locking this one in now and hoping for good news on the injury report.

Will the Vikings Ever Win Again?

The Vikings may have used up all their magic in 2022. They were a perfect 11-0 in one-score games, seemingly pulling out another improbable victory each week. Everyone knew they were a bit of a fraud, and they ended up getting bounced at home in the first round of the playoffs.

Ironically, the team has seen their luck do a complete 180 in 2023.

In Week 1, they out-gained the Buccaneers by 127 yards but were done in by three turnovers. The script was pretty similar in Week 2, with four first-half turnovers putting them in a hole that they couldn’t crawl out of vs. the Eagles.

In Week 3, it was more bad breaks. It started with a deflected pass that turned into a Chargers’ touchdown:

Then the Vikings threw a pick in the end zone while going in for what would’ve been a game-winning score.

They’re now 0-3 both straight up and against the spread, which puts them in pretty rare company. Only 30 teams have done the same since 2005, and they’ve unsurprisingly covered at a solid clip in Week 4 (17-12-1; +13.8% ROI).

In general, teams that are 0-3 straight up have also been good investments. That isn’t nearly as rare, but those teams have gone 44-30-1 ATS in Week 4.

The Vikings are currently listed as 3-point road favorites vs. the Panthers. That number is actually up from -1.5 on the lookahead line, but it feels like variance has to swing back in their favor eventually. They entered Week 3 29th in the Luck Ratings, and I doubt they’re going to improve after their showing vs. the Chargers.

Ultimately, this feels like a good time to buy low on a team that has had nothing go right to start the year.

Bet on a Burrow Return?

We’re still waiting on an official status for Burrow vs. the Rams, but I’m operating under the assumption that he’s not going to play. The current betting line suggests it, as does the fact that the team signed A.J. McCarron to the practice squad.

However, the fact that they’ve yet to rule him out makes me optimistic about his chances in Week 4.

That creates some potential value with the Bengals on the spread. They’re currently listed as 1.5-point road underdogs vs. the Titans, but they were initially 4.5-point favorites on the lookahead line. In my estimation, Burrow is worth approximately 6 points toward the spread, so that math checks out.

If Burrow is able to return to the lineup in Week 4, I would expect the Bengals to close as favorites. I’m going to lock in a bet on them as underdogs to set myself up for another potential CLV scenario.