In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
Coming ‘Round The Bend: This NFL weekend hit differently. Did you feel it? Offenses flowed more smoothly, drives seemed more fluid as points actually wound up in bunches on the scoreboard. Suddenly eclipsing 30 points didn’t feel like a gear-less hike up Kilimanjaro.
What changed? For me, it’s continuity through repetitions—precisely what we weigh for handicapping props. Not only did the league shorten the preseason, but there’s also been an increasingly widespread withholding of starters in exhibition games. The lack of full-speed reps throws off crucial plays based on synchronized timing to an unsurprisingly negative result. Well, the last two weeks, the worm’s finally begun to turn.
Check out the gradual offensive bi-weekly, per-game changes between Weeks 1-2 and Weeks 3-4 (according to TruMedia):
Yards Per Game: 318.4 to 326.5
EPA/Play: -0.5 to -0.2
Average Drive Distance: 29 to 30
First Downs Per Drive: 1.7 to 1.8
Pass Rate: 58.9% to 60.9%
Completions Per Game: 19.8 to 21.6
Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 to 7.1
Passing Yards Per Game: 193.6 to 212.3
Remember, NFL trends turn as slow as cruise ships. Baby steps …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Will Calvin Carve The Fins?
Frankly, if this weren’t pro football, I’d rather be napping. I know we just discussed an offensive awakening, but an injured Dolphins squad hosting the Will Levis-led Titans could be cause to bust out the old-school knit sleeping caps. Ugly games call for ugly props …
First things first, an uninspiring 37-point game total and 2.5-point spread should make for a competitive game script throughout. That said, it’s borderline impossible to target volume on either of these squads. Neither passing offense projects for over 200 yards through the air against defenses ranking in the Top 5 against the pass. However, there’s one trend I noticed worth attacking.
I never like to project shadow corners, but the return of DeAndre Hopkins to full strength should command the majority of the defense’s, and more specifically Jalen Ramsey’s, attention. So tonight it’s Hopkins’ WR counterpart Calvin Ridley who’s my focal point, having established a unique role in Nick Holz’s system as the Titans’ top deep target. Though he is turning 30 on Dec. 4, Ridley is still a legitimate burner—per NextGen Stats he’s 6th among all WRs with +10 targets at maximum foot speed.
Tennessee’s intention for Ridley is no secret …
23.3 Air Yards per Target
17.0 Yards Per Reception
124.3 Air Yards Per Game
43.8% +20 Yard Target Rate
17.6% +20 Play Rate
The Dolphins’ defense can play, but they have also allowed eight +20-yard completions, so we’re live throughout for sure. I’ll be holding my breath every time Levis uncorks a deep shot but we only need one.
THE BET: Calvin Ridley Over 19.5 Longest Reception (-118) BetMGM
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The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Run, Jared … Run?
I take a lot of pride in trying to create an immersive experience with this newsletter. We learn, laugh, and profit together. I speak to you like adults and consider you my friends—so I find it equally important to be transparent in my approach and analysis. That said (deep breath), I can’t in good conscience lay out my usual detailed, stat-dense argument for a prop this gross.
Jared Goff is 30 years old. And slow. Like snail slow. So why on Earth are we betting on the seasoned veteran’s rush prop? I think sportsbooks are using historical averages for the Lions’ QB, missing on this year’s weirdest wrinkle. Goff, who finished with -1 rush yard through 2023’s final six regular-season games combined on a 1% scramble rate, has more than tripled that number to 3.5% so far this year.
Lamar Jackson’s single-season rushing yard record should still be safe, but fear not, we need only less than one-hundredth of 1% to hit our Monday night mark from Goff. Kidding aside, he’s added high-IQ scrambles to turn throwaways into first downs—averaging 2 carries per game with a minimum of 5 yards in any contest this year.
THE BET: Jared Goff Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Make sure to get the best price on all of your props this week with our NFL Prop Finder Tool!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Claudia, Freedman, and LaMarca talk Sunday’s winners and losers on the Betting Life Show and analyze the early lines for Week 5 in the NFL.
📺 Claudia and Thor run through last week’s big games like Georgia-Alabama and look ahead to Week 6 College Football early lines.
🏈 🏈 Let’s play 2 on MNF! Matt LaMarca delivers his best bets for Dolphins-Titans and Lions-Seahawks .
🔮 Get a jump on NFL Week 5 with these early betting lines.
🤯 What percent of bettors are taking DK Metcalf over his receiving prop tonight?
Sharps Going Down Under: Titans at Dolphins
Presented by Sharp Hunter
By Mike Mutnansky of Sharp Hunter
The only thing better than a Monday Night game? TWO Monday Night games! And we're blessed with a pair of games in prime time on this Monday night.
One of those is the Miami Dolphins hosting the Tennessee Titans, with a total sitting at 37 as of Sunday Night. It's a total that the Sharps we track at SharpHunter are looking to attack based on the bets we're watching Sunday night. In fact, we're showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score on the U37.
I like the Sharp betting here.
On the field with Tua Tagovailoa OUT, we get a backup in Tyler Huntley starting for Miami. Tim Boyle would have been a REAL push for the under, but Huntley making his first start is still a positive for this under. The Titans running that ball at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL can also slow the game down—another plus for the under.
Offensively, we get the 29th (MIA) and the 25th (TEN) rated DVOA offenses squaring off here. That does not scream POINTS in this spot.
How about a trend? NFL games with a total of 37 are now 31-11-1 (74%) to the under dating back to 2020.
We'll root against Monday Night fireworks and instead bet with the Sharps here and play UNDER 37.
Track all NFL bets for every week of the season as well as futures with our free NFL Bet Tracker!
