Pick’em pools — where you pick the straight-up winner of every game each week — remain a popular way to compete against your friends without having to dive headfirst into the world of sports betting.

Each week, Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca walk you through their favorite ways to approach these contests. Which games should you eat the chalk? Where should you look for leverage? And which trendy upsets should you avoid?

Let’s dive into all 16 games for Week 4.

Cowboys at Giants Picks

LaMarca: Cowboys (8/10 confidence). The Cowboys have not looked the part to start the year, but they have always been bullies at heart. When they play bad teams, they’re capable of running up the score. Their only win this season has come by 16 points, so I think they should dispatch the Giants pretty easily.

Geoff: Giants (2/10 confidence). I’m calling for the upset on Thursday Night Football at home for New York. The Giants' defense has played well to start the year and look much better when you consider they limited Jayden Daniels to just FGs. The talent gap between these two teams is smaller than it was last year. 

Broncos at Jets Picks

LaMarca: Jets (10/10). Maybe I’m drinking a bit too much of Aaron Rodgers’ special Kool-Aid, but I’m a believer in this team. Rodgers still looks the part, and the defense was absolutely dominant against the Patriots. It could be a long day for Bo Nix.

Geoff: Jets (9/10). Aaron Rodgers, at home, against a rookie QB? The Jets' defense should give Bo Nix major issues and New York’s run game is elite at the moment. 

Saints at Falcons Picks

LaMarca: Falcons (3/10). The Falcons were awful in Week 2, but they beat the Eagles and nearly beat the Chiefs. The Saints came crashing back to reality just a smidge in Week 3, and we have a long enough track record with Derek Carr to know he wasn’t going to be in the MVP conversation forever. I’m expecting more regression moving forward.

Geoff: Falcons (4/10). Atlanta should have beat the Chiefs but they can make up for that loss by getting a division win this week. The Saints have traditionally underperformed in the division under Dennis Allen (5-7-1 against NFC South) and are going up against a decent rush defense. If Dallas Goedert can go for 10 rec and 170 yards, what can Kyle Pitts do against this defense?

Rams at Bears Picks

LaMarca: Rams (2/10). The Rams are extremely banged up, but that didn’t stop them from picking up a win over the 49ers in Week 3. I’ll take my chances with Matthew Stafford over Caleb Williams at this point in their careers.

Geoff: Rams (5/10). I will just keep betting against Matt Eberflus and Caleb Williams. I will just keep betting against Matt Eberflus and Caleb Williams. I will just keep betting against Matt Eberflus and Caleb Williams. 

Vikings at Packers Picks

LaMarca: Packers (4/10). As much as I think the Vikings are for real, this is a really tough spot for them. The Packers will likely get Jordan Love back in the lineup this week, while Sam Darnold isn’t at 100%.

Geoff: Packers (7/10). Packers are an elite team, with depth at almost every position. The Vikings likely won’t be able to get the same kind of pressure they have in past weeks and the Packers defense has been much better in 2024. 

Steelers at Colts Picks

LaMarca: Steelers (7/10). The Steelers aren’t a sexy team, but they have an elite defense and don’t make a ton of mistakes on offense. In other words, they don’t beat themselves. Anthony Richardson hasn’t shown the ability to make plays against this type of defense, so I expect the Steelers to grind out another win.

Geoff: Colts (4/10). I do think this could be a sloppy sort of game with mistakes on both sides, but the Colts ultimately prevail. You can only win with a conservative offense for so long and the Colts have explosiveness on both sides of the ball to get scores and force the Steelers out of their game plan. 

Eagles at Buccaneers Picks

LaMarca: Eagles (6/10). The Buccaneers had a strong start to the year, but they were absolutely humbled by the Broncos in Tampa. The Eagles are simply the better team.

Geoff: Eagles (7/10). This is becoming one of my favorite spots of the week. The Buccaneers rush defense has been uncharacteristically bad to date (29th in EPA against the rush) while the Eagles finally found their footing on defense against New Orleans, I expect the Eagles to ram the ball down Tampa’s throat on the ground and get the win. 

Bengals at Panthers Picks

LaMarca: Bengals (4/10). This is a classic “buy low, sell high” spot. The Panthers' stock is the highest it’s been in years, while the Bengals' is at its lowest. I’m not expecting another 30+ points from Andy Dalton and co.

Geoff: Bengals (8/10). The QB difference is still quite large, despite what Dalton did last week. The Bengals' secondary should rebound and limit the Panthers' big plays, giving Burrow and company the breathing room they didn’t have last week.  

Jaguars at Texans Picks

LaMarca: Texans (9/10). The Jaguars stink. Trevor Lawrence stinks, the running game stinks, and the coaching stinks. They’re also on short rest for this matchup, so I’m not expecting much improvement vs. the Texans.

Geoff: Texans (7/10). I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from either of these teams yet but there is a stark difference in QB quality. The Texans' defense should be able to hone in on the run and limit Lawrence, much the same way Buffalo did. 

Commanders at Cardinals Picks

LaMarca: Commanders (5/10). When you don’t punt for two straight games, you officially have my attention. The Commanders’ offense is the real deal, and while their defense is a disaster, I think they should be able to outscore the Cardinals.

Geoff: Commanders (2/10). This should be the most fun game of the week. Kyler Murray is a great fantasy QB but Jayden Daniels looks like a better real-life QB — and I expect that shines through in the end result. 

Patriots at 49ers Picks

LaMarca: 49ers (6/10). The 49ers remain ravaged from an injury perspective, but they managed to build a 10-point lead vs. the Rams in Week 3. If they can do that vs. the Patriots, New England is not build to engineer a comeback.

Geoff: 49ers (6/10). Just like LaMarca, I expect this game may be closer than the spread suggests. Brock Purdy is playing well enough to get injury-laden San Francisco through this trouble spot. 

Browns at Raiders Picks

LaMarca: Raiders (1/10). A true coin-flip of awfulness. The Raiders do at least have a solid track record as underdogs under Antonio Pierce, so I’ll side with them at home.

Geoff: Raiders (3/10). Browns have injuries piling up and a QB nobody wants or likes. Raiders likely respond to their coach blasting the team in the media after last week’s embarrassing loss with a better effort. Not high on either team but Raiders likely get the win. 

Chiefs at Chargers Picks

LaMarca: Chiefs (10/10). The Chargers are frauds, and they might not even have Justin Herbert at quarterback this week. There will be spots to fade the Chiefs down the road, but this isn’t it.

Geoff: Chiefs (9/10). Miracles do happen but do you want to trust one-legged Justin Herbert or some combination of Easton Stick/Taylor Heinicke? The Chiefs will get theirs eventually but not this week. 

Bills at Ravens Picks

LaMarca: Ravens (3/10). This should be a really good one. The Bills’ offense has not missed Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis at all, but this will be their biggest test of the early season. They’ll be on short rest in Baltimore, which is not an easy place to play. The Ravens managed to secure a win last week vs. the Cowboys, but they’re still the more desperate team at just 1-2.

Geoff: Bills (2/10). I’m still not sure that beating the Cowboys qualifies as a significant win. Josh Allen should be able to work Dalton Kincaid in the slot and move the ball enough to force a close game. Baltimore has not come out on the right side of those lately and I think they fail to again here. 

Titans at Dolphins Picks

LaMarca: Titans (6/10). If I have the opportunity to fade one of Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, or Tyler Huntley, I’m probably going to do it. The Titans' defense has played well enough to win two of their first three games; they just need their quarterback to stop actively sabotaging them.

Geoff: Titans (6/10). I would make this higher if Tim Boyle officially gets the start (0-5, 4 TDs vs 12 INTs in five starts) but I like Tennessee, regardless. Tennessee’s defense should bounce back against a Dolphins offense that lacks the explosiveness it had last season. As long as Will Levis doesn’t Leroy Jenkins late in 4th quarter again, the Titans should prevail. 

Seahawks at Lions Picks

LaMarca: Seahawks (2/10). I have been unimpressed by the Lions so far this season, who don’t look nearly as good on offense as they did in 2023. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have ridden an impressive secondary and passing attack to a 3-0 record. They could pull off the upset here.

Geoff: Seahawks (1/10). This should be a fun game. As much as I respect the Lions, I’m taking the Seahawks with low confidence. Aiden Hutchinson should slow down Geno Smith a little and look for DK Metcalf to go bananas against a poor secondary.