NFL Week 5 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, Moneylines, and Props to Bet.
Welcome to the week 5 best bets article.
Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.
If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.
Money Line: Jets (+115, BetMGM) over Broncos
While the Jets are the team coming off a loss, it’s also the Jets that feel like they have all the momentum heading into this game coming out of Week 4. Their defense got its swagger back with a three INT performance, their beleaguered quarterback outplayed the face of the league in primetime, and they’ve just taken the training wheels off their best offensive weapon.
On the flip side, you have a Broncos defense who almost looked worse in Week 4 than they did in Week 3 when they allowed 70 points. Justin Fields—who entered the game against Denver with a 57% completion percentage—completed 24 of his first 25 passes and had a career high 4 TD passes (he’d never thrown for more than 2 in a game) going into the half.
While we can give the Broncos' offense some credit (they’re 13th in overall offensive DVOA), they have not yet faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of the Jets to date.
Finally, there is also the narrative factor in play with Sean Payton, who has essentially thrown his entire team under the bus by making this matchup extremely personal for the Jets.
With all these factors in play, it’s not shocking that this line has been making a beeline to have the Jets potentially favored by kick-off (it opened at Jets +3.0, but is now at Jets +1.5). Regardless of how it closes, taking the Jets on the money line down to +100 looks like a solid play given the direction these two teams are headed.
Spread: Rams +4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
The more I see of the Rams, the more I like the makeup of this team. Despite being pegged as talent-deficient on defense, they have managed to keep all non-49er opponents to 23 or fewer points, and on offense have had huge contributions from players many people didn’t expect to be a part of the offense this year.
It all suggests that whatever preconceived notions you, me, or anyone had about Los Angeles this year may have been wrong. For Week 5, they also enter the game against the Eagles with the potential to get back the heart and soul of their offense in Cooper Kupp.
If Kupp does get announced as active for Sunday, it would not be overly shocking to see this line close near or at +3.5. There are not many WRs in the league I would value as worth a point or more of value on a line, but Kupp may be one of them. The Rams are 18-10 SU with Kupp in the lineup since 2021 (in games he’s started and finished), and they would be adding him to an improved WR arsenal which now also includes star rookie Puka Nacua.
Oct 1, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) celebrates his game winning touchdown in the overtime against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Eagles' defensive line remains stout, but they have fallen to 16th in yards per attempt allowed (they were first last season) and were lucky in many ways to escape with wins in three of their four games. Trend-wise, betting against Jalen Hurts on the road has been a solid proposition as he enters this week just 8-13 ATS in away games for his career.
For the Rams, they enter the week 3-0-1 ATS on the season and have a head coach in Sean McVay who has excelled in these spots. McVay enters the week 19-13-2 ATS as an underdog while with the Rams, and 5-1 ATS since 2020 as a home underdog.
It all speaks to the Rams being undervalued this week, and a nice bet at +4.5 (and anything +3.5 or better if Kupp is active).
You can tail the aforementioned two bets at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below and start betting TODAY!
Total: Chiefs at Vikings over 52.5 (-108, DraftKings)
There is almost never a poor time to bet the over when the Vikings are involved. Since 2017, Minnesota has gone 59-47-1 to the over on totals (56% success rate), which is the best mark in the league over that time frame.
The Vikings also love their dome, as they’re 8-4 to the over as the home team under current head coach Kevin O’Connell, with one of those failed overs coming in Week 3 against the Chargers, a game where the Vikings had about four attempts from inside the 3 yard line to score a late TD—which would have sent the total well over the 54 O/U.
The Chiefs may be coming off a poor offensive performance against the Jets, but it's typically a great idea to buy low on Patrick Mahomes. For his career, he’s thrown under 225 yards + at had least one INT three times. In the games following those three performances, the Chiefs have scored 40, 51, and 48 points, respectively (per the Action Network).
The total has risen on this game, but at 52.5, it’s still 1.0-2.0 points lower than the total we got against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago—potentially a reaction to public bettors getting burned by Vikings unders hitting in 3 of 4 weeks this year. The trends, though, suggest Minnesota goes on a nice over run at some point soon and that Mahomes likely bounces back this week with a massive game. It’s a nice spot to take the over in what should be an offensive slugfest.
You can tail the over at DraftKings, where you can also get $200 in bonus bets by signing up and placing your first bet of $5 or more! Simply sign up below to learn more!
Prop: Ja’Marr Chase over 78.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
The news from Bengals camp this week has been more positive. Joe Burrow stated early in the week that “It's the best I've felt after a game (Tennessee), so I'm optimistic," and there were videos of him moving around a little less gingerly.
A Burrow return to the mean would mean big things for Cincinnati (come off the ledge Bengals fans) and almost certainly mean better days ahead for WR Ja’Marr Chase. Chase, for his part, hasn’t been terrible this year. He’s caught 19 passes on 24 targets over the last two games and was a big reason why the Bengals were able to scrape out a win over the Rams.
Despite the heavy targeting, there is still obvious trepidation with the Bengals in the overall marketplace. Chase’s yardage prop remains under 80.0 yards for Week 5, which is low for a player of his upside and caliber—especially going into a dome matchup with the Cardinals.
Sep 25, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) reacts after a play against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona is now 29th in yards per attempt against and 30th in overall pass DVOA, and is coming off a game where they allowed another premier young receiver in Brandon Aiyuk to post a ridiculous 148 yards on just six catches (24.66 YPR).
We have Chase pegged for a big game, with him settling at 96.3 yards for the week in the Fantasy Life aggregate projections. If the Bengals do take off this week, these kinds of totals on Chase will be a thing of the past for the foreseeable future, so buying in on his over has a lot of intrinsic value for Week 5.
Prop: Dallas Goedert over 33.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
If you have been scouting the right time to buy in on Dallas Goedert, now might be the time to pounce. There is really nothing negative with his usage we need to fear, as he’s still a near everydown player with a 92% route rate and 17% target share on the season.
Further, while Goedert’s yardage O/Us for the season have been holding steady in the 41.5 to 36.5 yard range, we finally have a solid dip to buy this week as his aggregate projection on Fantasy Life is set at 39.0—but his yardage totals for Week 5 have now dropped to 33.5 at most sportsbooks.
Considering the Rams have a thin defense to begin with, and one that has given up the 11th most yards to opposing TEs—including 105 yards last week to the Colts' TE unit—his over makes for a solid play to round out props for the week.
