Welcome to the week 6 best bets article. 

Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below. 

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up. 

If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward. 

Spread: Colts (+4.5) at Jaguars (-110, BetMGM)

Both of these teams enter this pivotal game 3-2 straight up and 3-2 ATS on the year.

Trevor Lawrence played well last week but is still just 18th in EPA + CPOE composite among all quarterbacks and—for his career—is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite with head coach Doug Pederson. Speaking of Pederson, his career record as a favorite is just 25-31 ATS. 

There is also the unprecedented situation of Jacksonville coming home and playing DIRECTLY off of two games over in London—a situation that no team in the history of the NFL has ever dealt with before. 

On the Indianapolis side, the switch to Gardner Minshew (0.44 EPA per play) has not meant a drop-off for the offense just yet. 

The Colts have also run the ball extremely well at times (5.7 yards per carry last week) and their defense is getting healthier with DE Kwity Paye and LB Shaquille Leonard both returning to full practices this week. 

Indianapolis has hung with some tough teams (beat HOU, TEN, BAL straight-up, OT vs. Rams) and look poised to keep this game close as well, under what is likely to be a slightly more conservative offensive approach with Minshew.

The points at anything above a FG look worth taking. 

  • Bet until: +3.5

You can tail Colts +4.5 at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!

Spread: Bengals -2.5 vs. Seahawks (-115, BetMGM)

The line on this game has moved around all week.

The Bengals were -3.5 on the lookahead line but we have now seen a significant shift down toward the Seahawks with the line moving under the very key number of 3.0. This is all despite the Bengals coming off their best game of the season—and Joe Burrow appearing to (finally) be 100% healthy. 

Pete Carroll is just 8-8-1 ATS after a bye for his career, and it’s at least worth noting that the last time we saw the Seahawks play in a competitive game was back in Week 3, where their defense gave up 361 yards to the Panthers.

Seattle’s defense may have improved since then but their secondary is still just 21st in yards per pass attempt against, and may be a little unlucky in this spot catching Burrow with some momentum and back to his normal self. 

The Seahawks are certainly no slouches, and both of these teams feel like they could be playoff contenders, but at the current line this ultimately feels like another good buy-low spot on the Bengals. 

Cincinnati has been a great investment in these kinds of games over the past couple of years, going 24-11-1 ATS with Joe Burrow under center against non-division opponents since 2020.

The long-term trend and the slight fear of competitive rust on the Seattle side has the lean toward the Bengals at anything under a FG. 

  • Bet until: -2.5

Prop: Garrett Wilson over 51.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

This line opened at 50.5 and quickly shot up most places to 52.5 or higher.

And it’s for good reason.

Wilson comes into this game averaging 9.5 targets a game with Zach Wilson at QB, and has a stranglehold on the downfield passing work—with a 30% target share and 44% air yards share on the season (Allen Lazard is the only other Jet with an air yards share above 20%). 

Garrett Wilson

His catchable target rate is an ongoing concern, but there have been signs of improvement from Wilson (Zach) of late, who has completed 71% of his passes over the last two games. 

The Eagles' secondary also isn’t on a great run at the moment, having allowed five different wide receivers over their last two games to go for 50+ yards against them.

Additionally, they’ve got two starters in their secondary (Darius Slay, Justin Evans – questionable) who may not suit up this week. 

Wilson looks like a great over target and potentially a player you may want to consider ladder betting up to 100+ yards (+650, DraftKings) as well. 

Prop: Bryce Young over 209.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)

As poor of a start as it has been for Young, this week does set up well for a mini-breakout of sorts. The Dolphins' defense is nearly as bad as the Panthers' in several metrics, ranking 23rd in yards per pass attempt against (7.0) and 25th in overall defensive DVOA. 

Given that the Dolphins' offense is also elite (first in overall offensive DVOA), it often leads to plenty of late-game possessions where the opposing quarterback is chucking the ball, with abandon, against a weaker secondary. 

Bryce Young

Oct 8, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws a touchdown pass to tight end Tommy Tremble (82) (not pictured) against the Detroit Lions in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The last two QBs who have started and finished the game against the Dolphins:

  • Week 3: Russell Wilson – (23-38, 306-1-1, 8.0 yards per attempt)
  • Week 4: Josh Allen – (21-25, 320-4-0, 12.8 yards per attempt) 

Young and the Panthers' offense found some rhythm late in the game against the Lions, and it’s worth noting that his yards per attempt metrics have improved over the last two starts (Weeks 1 +2: 4.2, Weeks 3+4: 6.2). 

While we can play for the regular over on Young’s 215.5 yardage total, his alternative totals (250+ and 300+) may be worth looking at upon release as well. We’ve already seen two QBs go for over 300 yards against Miami this season, and there is a very high chance that Young is passing late into this game. 

You can tail the over on FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account and place an initial $5 bet. Simply sign up below and start betting TODAY!

Props: Jonathan Mingo over 26.8 yards receiving (-115, BetRivers)

Another way to potentially play this spot for the Carolina offense is to target the receiving props of rookie Jonathan Mingo, which look perilously low after seeing his Week 5 usage stats (82% route rate, 21% target share against Detroit). 

We have a couple of bets up targeting Mingo in the free bet tracker already, and he could also be used with Young this week in pick’em contests and same game parlays, given how correlated their production is.  

You can tail Mingo's over at BetRivers, where new users will receive a 100% deposit match (amount pending location) when you sign up below!

NFL best bets week 6