Welcome to the week 7 best bets article. 

Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below. 

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up. 

If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward. 

6 pt. Teaser: Seahawks -7.5 (to -1.5) / 49ers -6.5 (to - 0.5) (-120, DraftKings)

  • Play to: Seahawks -7.5 (down to -1.5) and 49ers -7.5 ( down to -1.5) -120

We have a lot of opportunities to deploy Wong teasers this week and one of my favorite spots to do so is with the Seahawks. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought, straight-up loss to the Bengals, and that’s typically been a great spot to target Pete Carroll teams. Since he took over as head coach, the Seahawks are 37-22-4 ATS off a loss. 

Seattle has a few concerns on the injury report but nothing overly serious. DK Metcalf (ribs) should play after resting early in the week (as he’s done this numerous times this year) and none of the injuries to their offensive linemen (four on the injury report) sound overly concerning—although that could change by Friday and admittedly bears watching. 

As for the second leg, moving the 49ers down from -6.5 (or -7.0 depending on where you place the bet) isn’t as ideal from a mathematical standpoint but still moves us through two key numbers (6.0 and 3.0).  

Like Seattle, the 49ers have a few big names on the injury report, but the injuries are not serious. All three of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams reportedly will have a shot at playing this week. Getting San Francisco down to -0.5/-1.0 also lets us fade Kirk Cousins (4-13-1 SU against teams with a 75%+ win percentage as a Viking) without the need to cover the TD. 

If we played this as a straight-up, moneyline parlay, we’d only be getting -137 or worse at most books, but teasing it on DraftKings allows us better odds of -120 with the small caveat of needing the Seahawks to cover 1.5. 

Ultimately, it feels like we have two superior teams whose spreads this week have been reduced slightly by tough losses to good/elite teams. I like buying low on both, teasing them down through some key numbers and trusting them to get through the week with wins and cash this bet. 

  • Alternative Week 7 6 pt.-teaser: Colts +2.5 to +8.5 / Dolphins +2.5 to +8.5 (-120, DraftKings)
  • If you’re looking for more information on teasers, check out the Thursday (October 19th) Betting Life newsletter as our friends Unabated had a great article on what to look for when placing these bets. 

You can tail this teaser on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you place an initial wager of $5 or more when you sign up below!

Chargers +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)

  • Play to: Chargers +4.5

The fact that this number hasn’t moved in favor of the Chiefs—even after another heartbreaking Chargers loss—speaks volumes to me.

While the Chiefs remain big favorites, clearly the market hasn’t seen enough from the Chiefs to warrant pushing them through a couple of key numbers (6.5 or 7.5) and think there is a chance this game remains closer than it may seem on paper. 

Justin Herbert

Oct 16, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws the ball against the Dallas Cowboys in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It’s likely for good reason as well. Since they drafted Justin Herbert, the Chargers have been great at keeping games close against the Chiefs. For his career, Herbert is 4-1 ATS when Mahomes is under center on the other side, with the Chargers' average margin of loss being just 4.2 points in those games. 

Extending that narrative a little further, the Chargers, in general, under Brandon Staley haven’t been great at closing out games but have been great at keeping them close. Dating back to last season, six of their last seven regular season losses have come by three points or less. 

If we look at the Chiefs holistically, the fact they managed just 19 points last week against a historically bad defense is a touch concerning. On the season, they have been held to 20 points or less three times, and their receivers have combined for the most drops on offense this year (15) in the league (a fact not lost on the Chiefs as they traded for Mecole Hardman early this week). 

I like taking the points even down to 4.5 with Los Angeles, who we don’t need to rely on for the win this week—and who have a great recent track record of playing close games with the Chiefs.

Rams vs Steelers under 44.0 (-110, PointsBet)

  • Play under at 43.5 or higher

A lot of the game totals this week have already moved with heavy action toward the under this week—a direct reaction to some significant injuries and unders going an incredible 12-3 last week. Interestingly enough, the one total that has risen a little this week (lookahead line of 42.5 – currently 44.0) is the one between the Rams and Steelers. 

When you look at the face of this game, it’s easy to see why people would think of points in this matchup. We have a dome environment, a Rams offense that is 5th in offensive DVOA (and has a fully healthy Cooper Kupp again), and a Steelers offense that is set to get back Diontae Johnson. However, even with Kupp healthy, the Rams have been solid under plays in these kinds of spots. 

On top of going well under the number in each of their last two games, since the start of 2020 the Rams are a surprising 21-10 at hitting unders, as the HOME TEAM. Adding onto this trend is a Steelers team who tends to play more conservative on the road under Mike Tomlin.

Since the start of 2020, the Steelers are 15-12-1 at hitting unders, and if we extend back to 2017, Pittsburgh is actually the best road under team in the league, going 34-16-2 on totals (toward the under). 

While I’d be happy to lay off this total at anything under 43.0, at 44.0 and with larger bets driving up the total past 44.0 now, taking out a contrarian position that this one follows the Rams' and Steelers' home/away trends is warranted.

You can tail the under at PointsBet and get up to 10 $100 second-chance bets when you sign up for your new account below!

Christian Watson over 49.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

  • Fantasy Life Aggregate projection: 55.5 receiving yards
  • Play to: 53.5 receiving yards (-110)

Even in a game where Jordan Love threw for just 182 yards, with an abysmal 53% completion percentage, Watson was still able to go for 91 yards receiving against the Raiders in Week 5—his first game of the season (hamstring) where he played a full complement of downs. 

The glass half-empty guy says 91 yards on three catches is unsustainable production and Love’s inefficiency will catch up with him (and over bettors). The glass half-full guy says backing a 6’5", 200+ lb., 4.36 sec. 40M wide receiver to go over on sub-50 yard props is low hanging fruit worth taking.

Christian Watson

Oct 9, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) is pursued by Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane (41), cornerback Marcus Peters (24) and cornerback Tyler Hall (37) on a 77-yard reception in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Glass half-empty guy has a point—and I worry about Love and Watson’s production against good defenses—but with Denver on tap this week, we are leaning glass half-full guy. Watson had a 25% target share and 76% air-yard share from Week 5 and faces off against a Broncos defense that is dead last in yards per pass attempt against (8.2). As Fantasy Life usage maestro Dwain McFarland noted in his Week 7 tiers piece from this Thursday’s Fantasy Life newsletter, Denver is also last in PFF coverage grade (45.5), and they also rank last in tackling.

I fully expect this prop to rise as the week progresses, but backing the over on Watson at anything under 53.5 yards makes a ton of sense against this weak Denver defense. 

This is also a great spot to ladder bet the Packers WR1 through 75+ and 100+ yards when BetMGM releases their milestone lines later in the week. 

You can tail Watson on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!

Darius Slayton 50+ receiving yards (+205, Bet365)

  • Fantasy Life Aggregate projection: 55.5 receiving yards
  • Play to: 50+ (+165)

Given the state of the Giants' offense this season (last in yards per play with 4.1 yards) it's easy to forget that Slayton has remained a relatively consistent producer for them. Going back to last season, the 6'1", 195-lb.

Slayton has gone for 50 or more yards now in 11 of the last 20 games where he’s suited up and played in a full-time role for the Giants. That includes two games this season, one of which was last week when backup Tyrod Taylor was at the helm and Slayton managed to average 17.6 yards per reception.

Slayton’s regular prop sits around 34.5 yards (-110) for the week, but the matchup against Washington is good enough to play for more upside. The Commanders have been terrible in coverage and have allowed a wide receiver to go for 100+ yards against them in every game since Week 1. They sit 26th in yards per pass attempt against and allowed Slayton to go for 6 rec. and 90 yards against them in Week 13 last year—his second highest receiving total of 2022. 

Washington’s corners are so bad that thinking about playing Slayton in some ladder bets up to 75+ (+575, Bet365) and even 100+ (+1450, Bet365) yards is warranted.

But regardless of how you’re playing him, I do like taking the alternate lines and the plus odds vs. the regular lines. If we’re going to play for an over on a Giants player, we want to make sure we get paid off for targeting such a weak offense if they hit. 

You can tail Slayton at Bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets simply by placing a first bet of $1 or more when you sign up below!

Best Bets