Just when you think you have this league figured out, the NFL will humble you. The Eagles and Browns entered Week 6 as the last two undefeated squads in the league, and they were both facing backup quarterbacks. Easy pickings right?

Of course not.

The 49ers lost to P.J. Walker and the Browns while the mighty Eagles fell to Zach Wilson and the Jets. It’s just more proof that if you’re not ready to play every single week, anyone can beat anyone.

With Sunday in the rearview, let’s take our first look at Week 7. Here are five bets that jumped off the page early:

Detroit Lions (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

  • Lookahead Spread: Lions +3.0
  • Current Spread: Lions +2.5 (-108, FanDuel)

The Jaguars managed to put the London Curse to bed in Week 6, and now the Ravens will have the opportunity to do the same. Unfortunately, while Jacksonville got a relatively soft matchup vs. the Colts, the Ravens are going to have to deal with the Lions.

Detroit picked up another comfortable win on Sunday, moving them to 5-1 for the year. They did that despite missing their two marquee cornerbacks and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

Overall, it’s getting harder and harder to find any real flaws with this squad.

Oct 15, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions will take the field as underdogs in Baltimore, and that’s a role they’ve historically been comfortable in. They’re 24-15 ATS when getting points under head coach Dan Campbell, including an outright win in their only game as an underdog this season.

On the other side, this is a spot where Lamar Jackson has historically struggled. He’s just 26-32 ATS as a favorite (including playoffs), and he’s 11-21 ATS as a home favorite.

The line has already dipped from 3.0 to 2.5, so we don’t necessarily need to risk locking in the Lions now. Even if there’s a slight chance it gets back to three, it’s worth risking the number dipping closer to a pick’em.

That said, don’t be surprised if Lions +2.5 is the best number we see all week. I’m happy to play the Lions getting any points in this matchup.

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Las Vegas Raiders (-3.0) @ Chicago Bears

  • Lookahead Spread: Raiders +1.0
  • Current Spread: Raiders -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)

The big news here involves the injury to Justin Fields. He exited Sunday’s loss vs. the Vikings with a dislocated thumb and was reportedly unable to grip the football. That seems pretty important for playing quarterback.

With that in mind, don’t be surprised if Fields is unable to suit up in Week 7 vs. the Raiders.

Fields’ status has had an impact on the line, pushing the Bears from small home favorites to three-point home underdogs. A four-point move is pretty generous for Fields — who still has plenty to prove as an NFL quarterback — but moves around zero don’t matter quite as much as they do around other numbers.

Additionally, the Bears have a major project as their backup quarterback. Tyson Bagent relieved Fields vs. the Vikings, and he’s an undrafted rookie free agent who played at Division II Shepherd. Bagent was impressive during the preseason, but if Dorian Thompson-Robinson proved anything, it’s that the preseason is not the best measuring stick for a quarterback.

Bagent struggled vs. the Vikings, averaging just 5.9 yards per completion with zero passing touchdowns and two turnovers. The Raiders' defense isn’t particularly good, but they’ve shut down the Packers and Patriots passing attacks over the past two weeks. They should be licking their chops about the prospects of squaring off with a UDFA.

I like the idea of grabbing the Raiders as three-point favorites. If Fields is ruled out, this number could continue to creep up. If he does play, we can always look to hedge out or ride our ticket against a banged-up QB.

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

  • Lookahead Spread: Buccaneers +1.0
  • Current Spread: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)

The Buccaneers were unable to get the job done vs. the Lions, but they’ve still been pretty impressive this season. Baker Mayfield entered the week fifth in EPA + CPOE composite, and while he’ll slide down the ranks a bit after Week 6, he’s still been an above-average starter.

The same cannot be said for Desmond Ridder.

With Zach Wilson showing signs of life in recent weeks, Ridder has ascended to the top of the “worst starting quarterbacks in football” list. Unfortunately for Ridder, the only prize that comes with it is constant scrutiny and decreased job security.

Ridder had numerous chances to make a play late for the Falcons, who had three fourth-quarter drives down eight points at home to the Commanders. Those drives ended with two interceptions and a turnover on downs.

The Bucs have unsurprisingly become larger favorites heading into Week 7, but they’re still below the key number of three. I think that makes them an excellent candidate to lock in now.

Any time we can fade Ridder at these kinds of prices, it makes sense to do so.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (+1.5)

  • Lookahead Line: Saints -1.0
  • Current Line: Saints +1.5 (-115, BetMGM)

I took some tough losses on Sunday, but I’m not sure if any was tougher than New Orleans. The Saints outgained the Texans by 133 yards but cost themselves with numerous mistakes. They had two turnovers and two missed field goals, including one from merely 29 yards out. They were 0-for-3 on red zone touchdowns and had 83 yards of penalties.

In short — they were the better team; they just didn’t win.

I still believe the Saints to be a quality football team. Their defense has graded out as a top-10 unit in most metrics, and they had another strong showing on Sunday. The offense hasn’t been nearly as impressive, but they’ve been more than good enough when Derek Carr has been healthy. In fact, their 430 yards was the second-most the Texans have allowed all season.

On the other side, the Jaguars win felt fluky. They only mustered 233 yards of total offense but were gifted 37 points thanks to four Colts turnovers. Of course, the Jaguars do get some credit for forcing those turnovers, but it’s not like this team thoroughly dominated Indianapolis.

Now the Jaguars will travel to New Orleans as road favorites, and that feels like a mistake. I’m still not convinced the Jaguars are a particularly good football team, and the Saints defense is the best unit in this matchup.

I’m locking in a play on the Saints at -102 on the moneyline while I still can.

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Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Lookahead Line: Chargers +6.0
  • Current Line: Chargers +5.5 (-110, FanDuel)

The Chargers don’t play until Monday night, presenting us with an interesting dilemma for Week 7. Is it better to wait and see how they perform against the Cowboys or, if you like them, should you take them early?

While +5.5 is far from a key number, I think the odds of this game getting to 7.0 are slim. It’s more likely that the Chargers perform well against Dallas and this number dips into the 4.5 range.

That makes grabbing them now the best option.

Justin Herbert is in the midst of his best statistical season, and he has always had Patrick Mahomes’ number from an ATS perspective. He’s 4-1 in head-to-head matchups against the spread, even though his team is merely 2-3.

The Chargers were 3.5-point home underdogs in Kansas City in 2022, and you could make a strong case that the Chargers are better and the Chiefs are worse than they were last season. The Chiefs defense does seem improved, but they lack a quality No. 2 option in the passing game behind Travis Kelce.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are getting healthier. Derwin James will return to the lineup Monday vs. the Cowboys, while Joey Bosa is questionable. Even if Bosa can’t go vs. the Cowboys, it seems like he’s trending in the right direction for the divisional showdown vs. KC. Both players have been out of the lineup since Week 3, and they’re arguably the team’s two best defenders.

Add it all up, and I like the Chargers plus the points in Week 7.

Early Betting Lines