NFL Week 9 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, Moneylines, and Props to Bet.

Welcome to the Week 9 best bets article. 

Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below. 

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up. 

If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward. 

Seattle Seahawks +6.0 (-110, Bet365)

• Play to: +5.0 (-110)

The Seahawks look like the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL right now—what do they have to do to get some respect?

Seattle enters this week 9th in offensive DVOA and with a secondary that has allowed just 5.1 yards per attempt over their last three games (3rd best over that span). Since losing to the Bengals in Week 6—a game they had a chance to win in the final minute—they’ve covered twice and beaten another AFC North team with a winning record in the Browns. 

Seattle now has wins over two quality teams, and their one loss since Week 1 came by less than a TD. 

Sep 10, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) protects the ball from Los Angeles Rams linebacker Michael Hoecht (97) during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens are obviously no slouches, but seeing them as -6.0 favorites here also makes this seem like a perfect sell-high spot. Outside of their impressive domination of Detroit, the rest of their season reads as follows:

• Struggled to beat an injured Joe Burrow
• Struggled to put away the Titans
• Losses to Steelers and Colts
• Failed to cover against Arizona

Seattle adding DE/DL Leonard Williams at the deadline is a significant move considering they were already top five in yards per rush attempt against but needed depth in the front seven. Even if they don’t come out of Baltimore with a win, I expect this to be a close game in which Seattle can frustrate and slow down the Ravens' rushing attack, and potentially get some plays from their emerging secondary, to keep this within a FG.

You can tail the Seahawks on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets by placing your first bet of $1 or more when you sign up below!

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110, PointsBet)

• Play to: -4.5 (-110)

This line opened at -3.5 after the Kirk Cousins news and promptly shot up to 4.5, even reaching -5.0 in spots. While chasing steam (buying the top, getting the worst numbers) is generally a practice to avoid, this is also a situational bet—and the situation this week for Minnesota is dire. 

The Vikings just lost their emotional leader and best offensive player in Cousins, a QB who was on pace for one of his best statistical seasons ever. 

It’s a massive loss considering they’re a pass-based offense (second in pass rate) who can’t run the ball (one rushing TD, 26th in yards per rush – 3.6). Asking Minnesota to switch to a run-based, option kind of offense with a dual threat QB like rookie Jaren Hall (in the span of a week) is like asking a sprinter to win a marathon on two weeks' notice—it’s likely not going to happen.

Atlanta’s defense sets up extremely well to take advantage of this situation as well. They’re 8th in yards per rush against and have a lockdown corner in AJ Terrell who can take away the Vikings' best big play option. Minnesota is going to need Hall to pick apart Atlanta methodically, which he’s almost certainly not going to be able to do. In three preseason appearances, he finished 26 for 48 (54%) for 257 yards (5.35 YPA) with one TD and one INT.

Making matters worse for Minnesota in this game is the fact that the Falcons finally pulled the plug on the Desmond Ridder experience. Taylor Heinicke managed 8.38 YPA in relief last week, landing 175 yards and a TD with zero turnovers, and is set to start this week. Considering Atlanta has been keeping games close while enduring multiple Ridder turnovers every start, with Heinicke leading things we could finally see this all-star-laden offense breakout. 

Trends here favor Atlanta as well. Kevin O’Connell is just 2-6 ATS as the Vikings' head coach and many of those losses have been by margin (7 points or more). Heinicke is no world-beater, but he’s been solid against weaker teams, going 5-1-1 straight-up for his career as the favorite. Even with the move toward Atlanta, this line still feels relatively small given Minnesota’s injuries and the fact they will have a fifth-round rookie under center, who will be making his first career start.

You can tail the Falcons on PointsBet, where you can get 10 second-chance bets of $100 when you sign up for a new account below!

Houston Texans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 40.0 (-110, DraftKings)

• Play to: 40.0 (-120) 

Despite far more bets coming in on the side of the over for this game, the number has stayed steady at 40.0 all week, a fact that would concern me if I was, in fact, on the over here. 

Despite the ability of the Texans and CJ Stroud to light up a weak secondary like Tampa Bay, the Texans have remained stubbornly committed to the run and are just 21st in pass rate. 

On the flip side, the Buccaneers are even worse at running the ball, but that hasn’t translated into a more pass-heavy approach either as they are 11th in pass rate but also just 21st in plays per game. 

Oct 29, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) drops back to pass against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

This sets up as a classic test of wills between two coaches who don’t want to let loose and two defenses (Houston 4th in yards per carry against, Tampa 12th in yards per carry against) who will happily gobble up the run game of the other team. The Texans and Buccaneers are also a collective 3-11 at hitting overs this season, suggesting that game totals for both of these teams haven’t accurately adjusted to their pace or style of play yet. 

40.0 may not seem like a big number, but given how these offenses have been trending and the fact we have two defensive-minded head coaches going against each other, an under does look warranted.

You can tail the under on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets by placing a first bet of only $5 or more when you sign up below!

Christian Watson over 41.5 receiving yards (Bet365, -110)

• Play to: 44.5
• Aggregate projection: 48.6

As much as I hate to back any Packers player (with an over), buying low on elite WRs who have underperformed of late worked like a charm last week (DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, and Tee Higgins all hit their overs in Week 8) and I’m loath to go away from that strategy. 

Watson’s actual production in 2023 has been miserable (under 40 yards in three of last four games), but there isn’t much to be worried about from a usage standpoint. He’s posted an air yards share of over 35% in two of his last three games and a target share of at least 20% in two of his last three games.  

Watson’s main deficiency this year is that he’s not come down with any “jump balls” (he’s 0/8 on contested catches) and also has a catchable target rate of just 50%. These kinds of stats tend to even out over time and eventually some of these deeper throws will go his way. 

The Rams are also a perfect get right matchup. Their secondary has given up 100+ yards to a WR in back-to-back games and allowed 8.4 yards per attempt last week to the Cowboys. Their defense is fifth-last in pressure rate, which will likely help the accuracy of Jordan Love, who has the fourth-most dropbacks under pressure, according to PFF. Watson’s endured a rough start but likely bounces back in a game where we have clear weather and the Packers' offense facing a declining defense. 

Dak Prescott SGP: over 34.5 pass attempts / over 249.5 passing yards (+165, Bet365)

• Play to: +150
• Aggregate projection: 35.0 pass attempts, 251.6 yards

This week’s game feels like an extremely strong setup for a big day of passing from Prescott—regardless of if the Cowboys win or not. 

Teams against Philadelphia are throwing the ball 39.5 times per game (second-most in the league) as their front seven have been a top-10 unit against the run thus far (3.8 yards per carry). The Cowboys' offensive line has some injury issues (Tyron Smith – questionable) and Dallas has not run the ball efficiently at all in 2023 (19th in yards per rush – 3.9 YPC).

Prescott has been quietly efficient over his last two games (75% completion rate and 9.4 yards per attempt) and is in a good spot with three healthy WRs against an Eagles secondary that has regressed this year and allowed the second-most yards to opposing WRs. We have Prescott projected for 35.0 attempts and 251 yards, and combining both of the overs on these correlated props gives us nice odds to play against a funnel-to-the-pass Eagles defense.