The NFL season never sleeps.
Even though free agency has hit a bit of a lull, there is no time to take a break here at Fantasy Life. The NFL Draft is right around the corner, #HotBestBallSummer is just a few months away, and training camp and the preseason will be here before you know it.
Additionally, DraftKings Sportsbook released their regular season win totals for all 32 NFL squads over the weekend.
These lines can move quite quickly—especially in terms of the vig—so jumping on them early is often the right idea. That’s particularly true if you want to take the over or under on a bet that is expected to be popular.
These lines can also fluctuate depending on what happens during the draft and the rest of free agency, or if any team out there is willing to swing a big trade. Ultimately, these numbers could be quite different by the time the start of the regular season actually rolls around.
Let’s dive into five win totals that I’m locking in early.
Bears Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
If you haven’t been following along with my Seeing the Futures series in our newsletter, I am very bullish on the Bears heading into next season. I laid out a plan for Chicago this offseason, and so far, they have followed that plan to a T.
It started by trading the No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers. They scooped up a massive haul from Carolina, including three assets that will help them immediately.
They secured the No. 9 and No. 61 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, so the Bears have 5 of the first 103 picks. Hopefully, the Bears can find a few impact players with those selections.
Perhaps even more importantly, they also acquired D.J. Moore. For the first time in his career, Justin Fields will have a legit No. 1 weapon to work with at receiver.
Moore had a down year playing with the Panthers’ cavalcade of terrible quarterbacks last year, but he finished with at least 1,157 receiving yards in each of his three previous seasons. Overall, he secured a top-26 Pro Football Focus grade at the position in each of those years before dropping to No. 40 last season.
The Bears have also spent nearly $160M in free agency so far, and they still have the most cap space in the league. They could easily acquire another few players before the start of the year to help shore up their roster even further.
Add in a wide-open division, and I could easily see the Bears winning double-digit games and making a trip to the postseason. Even if that’s a bit ambitious, winning eight games should be extremely doable.
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Packers Under 7.5 Wins (-150)
This pick goes hand-in-hand with the Bears selection. No one will be happier to see Aaron Rodgers out of a Packers uniform than Chicago. He has gone 24-5 against the Bears throughout his career, and he has no problem letting their fans know about it:
Unfortunately for the Packers, it seems like an absolute certainty that he’s played his last game for the team. Even if they can’t work out a trade with the Jets, it seems more likely that he’d retire than go back to Green Bay at this point.
With Rodgers out of the picture, the team will have just their third different Week 1 starter since 1992. Jordan Love will have to follow Rodgers and Brett Favre, and while both guys have had their issues, those are huge shoes to fill.
Consider me skeptical that Love can get it done.
What we’ve seen from Love in the preseason is hardly awe-inspiring. He played in all three of the team’s preseason games last year, and he completed just 55.4% of his passes for an average of 5.9 yards per attempt. He also had four interceptions compared to just three touchdown passes.
The Packers had a lot of problems last season, but Rodgers wasn’t one of them. He certainly wasn’t as good as he was during his back-to-back MVP runs, but he still finished as the No. 14 quarterback per PFF.
There is plenty of room to downgrade at the position, and they’ve done very little to improve the rest of the roster in free agency. In fact, PFF has them losing -0.89 Wins Above Replacement with what they’ve done so far.
Sometimes, it pays to keep things simple. This team won eight games last year with a no-doubt first-ballot Hall-of-Famer at QB. Winning fewer games without him seems very probable.
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Cowboys Over 9.5 Wins (-125)
I don’t entirely get this number. The Cowboys may be the type of team that can never get over the hump in the postseason, but that hasn’t stopped them from putting up tons of wins in recent years.
They won 12 games two seasons ago, and they followed that up with 12 wins again last season. That was despite Dak Prescott missing five games due to an injury, including their toughest game of the year on the road vs. the Eagles.
The Cowboys have done nothing this offseason to make me think any less of them. You could make a strong argument that they’ve gotten significantly better.
They brought in Stephon Gilmore at cornerback, which shores up one of the only weaknesses they had on defense last year. When you managed to keep their dominant pass rush out of your backfield, there were opportunities against the Cowboys’ secondary.
Gilmore finished as PFF’s No. 9 cornerback last season, so he should help immensely in that department.
They also added a legitimate No. 2 receiver in Brandin Cooks, who should be the perfect complement to CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Cooks is coming off a pedestrian season with the Texans, but he’s proven he can make an impact with a new team quickly: He’s turned in 1,000-yard seasons with four different franchises.
The biggest addition might actually be the subtraction of Ezekiel Elliott. With Zeke out of the way, the coast is clear for Tony Pollard to take on a larger role next season.
Pollard was drastically better than Elliott in every way last year, finishing as the No. 4 RB per PFF. Giving him more opportunities should only help improve this offense.
Finally, the rest of the division shouldn’t be as competitive next year. The Eagles took a massive hit in free agency, losing as much talent as anyone in football. Every metric suggests the Giants are due for regression, while the Commanders seem committed to starting Sam Howell at quarterback.
Even if the Cowboys are just as good as they were last year, that should be plenty good enough to win 10 games.
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Dolphins Under 9.5 Wins (-120)
The Dolphins were an excellent story last season. They acquired one of the best receivers in football in Tyreek Hill, and when combined with a new head coach in Mike McDaniel, it brought out the best in Tua Tagovailoa. He emerged as a legit MVP candidate, and the team won their first eight games that Tagovailoa started and finished.
Dec 4, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) escapes San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Unfortunately, that’s only half the story with Tua.
He suffered multiple concussions during the year, and there are legitimate long-term concerns about his health. Head injuries are extremely serious, and it seems like Tua could be one hit away from his career being over. It’s a terrible thing to think about, but it’s something we have to consider when looking at the betting market.
Without Tua last year, the Dolphins went from a good team to below-average. They were 1-4 in games where Tua didn’t start, and they had additional losses in games where Tua was unable to finish.
The team looked to shore up the backup QB spot with Mike White in free agency, but White has not proven himself to be an NFL-caliber quarterback. He’s gone just 2-5 as a starter while averaging 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt with 8 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
The AFC East also has the potential to be one of the best divisions in football.
The Jets are still widely expected to secure Rodgers and add him to a roster with plenty of talent. The Patriots could emerge as dark-horse contenders for Lamar Jackson. The Bills are the Bills.
This team managed just nine wins last year despite a near-perfect start to the year. I’m expecting some regression.
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Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (-120)
There are some organizations that you can just trust on a yearly basis. The Spurs used to be like that in basketball. The Rays are like that in baseball. It doesn’t matter what names are on the back of the jerseys; you simply expect them to figure it out.
The Steelers are that team in the NFL.
Think about all that went wrong for this team last year. Their best player, T.J. Watt, missed seven games, and the team went just 1-6 in his absence. They alternated between ineffective quarterbacks with Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. They traded away Chase Claypool.
Despite all those hardships, the team still managed to win nine games. In fact, the Steelers have never had a losing record with Mike Tomlin at head coach.
Do you know how crazy that is?
He’s been the team’s head coach for 16 seasons, and they’ve never gone worse than 8-8. Since the schedule switched to 17 games, they’ve never been worse than 9-8.
Statistically, most quarterbacks make their biggest leaps in between their rookie and sophomore seasons. We saw it last year with Trevor Lawrence, and while Pickett isn’t the same level of prospect, history suggests he’s due for improvement. He’s also proven he’s got ice water in his veins:
As long as Tomlin is on the sidelines, I trust the Steelers to be a competitive football team every season. With the Ravens in disarray and Deshaun Watson looking terrible in his return to the lineup last season, I see no reason why anything should change in 2023.
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