The NHL has a 10-game slate on the schedule for this Thursday. While there have been some funky results of late (the Bruins getting walloped at home was a surprise) favorites have gone 7 for nine (straight up) over the last two slates.
As we get closer to the playoffs and more teams fall out of the playoff picture (or further out than they already are) we could see this trend get even stronger. The dichotomy between the haves and have-nots has grown after the trade deadline and as the playoff teams get more in sync with their trade-deadline acquisitions I’d expect they perform better in the W-L column as well.
The NHL betting breakdown for Tuesday, March 12 is below.
Flyers to win in regulation (-185, DraftKings)
- Play to: -200
Let’s start off with a bet that looks short but still may offer us some decent intrinsic value. The Flyers are coming off a 6-1 shellacking at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning. It wasn’t a good look for the Flyers to lose to a playoff rival in that fashion, but the circumstances are worth mentioning. They were coming off an emotional 2-1 win over the Panthers and Tampa Bay had just blown a home game vs the Flames and were well rested.
The Flyers have been at home stewing over that loss since Sunday, while the Sharks had to fly out after a 2-1 win over the Senators (their first win in nine games). The Flyers have also been dominant against the West of late. They are 8-1-1 against Western conference opponents over their last 10 games with their only regulation loss being to Colorado. San Jose is also 6-21 SU on the road this year and is dead last in xGF% at 5v5, a callous look for a team facing the Flyers who have allowed the eighth-fewest high-danger scoring chances.
Goaltending is the only fear in this one as Magnus Chrona looked good in his last start but the Swede is also making his first road start against an eastern conference team and allowed 7 goals to the Islanders two starts ago.
All-in-all, the Flyers look like a good bet to take this one down in regulation and, while the puck line is playable, I’d prefer to take them in regulation at -200 or better and mitigate a little of the potential that Chrona stands on his head again and keeps it close.
Wild to win in regulation (-115, bet365)
- Play to: -125
The Wild are coming off a ballsy win over the weekend against Nashville, where the team risked losing out on a guaranteed point by pulling their goalie in OT. The move paid off and Minnesota ended up winning that game and moved to within 6 points of the Golden Knights who hold the final playoff spot in the West.
They've have played better over the last month or so, grabbing wins over the Canucks and Oilers over that span, and have been particularly good about taking advantage of weaker matchups, like the one they have tonight against the Coyotes. The Wild slammed the Coyotes 5-2 just over a week ago and the rematch tonight will be played in Minnesota where the Wild have been tough to beat of late, going 3-1 over their last few home starts, with a tough 2-1 loss to an elite Hurricanes squad being the only blemish.
Arizona recently snapped a long losing streak (and are 3-3 in their last 6 games) but have been brutal on the road this season (10-18 SU) and are completely outmatched 5v5 by Minnesota who rank 4th in team xGF% on the season. We don’t know who is starting in net yet but Marc Andre-Fleury has played well of late (save percentage of .900 or better in four straight starts) and Flilp Gustavsson is coming off a a game against Colorado where he posted a .950 save %.
The bottom line, the Wild have a huge advantage up front, are coming off an uplifting win, and won’t be at a huge disadvantage in net tonight (they may have the stronger goaltending for once).
It’s a good time to take them on the 60-minute line where the -115 is still very bettable, and hope their streak of winning against these weaker Western conference teams continues.
Wild/Flyers ML parlay (-106, DraftKings)
I like both of the favorites in this spot and wanted to showcase another way to play these two teams today.
The Flyers are -340 on the moneyline currently and the Wild have moved to -198 on DraftKings, and while I do think both of these lines potentially still represent some value given how poorly Arizona and San Jose have been on the road, combining them for a moneyline parlay makes a lot of sense as well.
The Flyers have been nearly unbeatable when placed up against weaker Western conference foes and with how big this game is for Minnesota, and just their overall superiority to the Coyotes at 5v5, parlaying both moneyline bets looks pretty appealing.
Obviously with parlays comes more risk of ruin but we have seen favorites, in general, stand their ground of late in the NHL with 7 of the last 9 favorites in the NHL coming through with the outright win.
As we get closer to playoff time and teams out of the playoff picture start focusing more and more on getting ice time to developmental players (and worry even less about wins) I’d be more inclined to chase these shorter money line numbers and look for ways to take advantage with parlays like the one above.
Golden Knights at Kraken under 6.0 goals (-120, bet365)
- Play to: -120
I do like the Golden Knights in this game and think they likely offer some value on the 60-minute line (+110, bet365) but the total is where I’d rather focus. Both of these teams have been solid under-targets with the Kraken especially excelling in that market going 18-14 at home to the under this season.
Moreover, when these two teams meet, things tend to stay civil on the scoreboard. The last four meetings between the Kraken and Golden Knights have all seen 5 goals or less and Seattle as a team have been held to two goals or less in four of their last five starts. The Golden Knights added depth makes the chance of them going for a five-goal outburst a little more likely but before their five-goal outburst against the Red Wings they had scored just 6 goals in three games.
I’d play this down to -120 at the current flat 6.0 but looking to take the under at 5.5 makes plenty of sense as well. This game feels like it’s either going to be very muted or go well over the 6 goals with Vegas continuing its upward trend, making the hook at 5.5 to 6.0 goals potentially less relevant.
Underdog 3-way NHL Pick'Em
Fanian Zetterland LOWER than 0.5 points
This is a great spot to fade some of the Sharks' top players. The Flyers don’t allow many quality scoring chances to begin with and the Sahrks are terrible at creating chances.
Zetterland also has some massive home/road splits as he has just 8 points in 31 road games this season.
Connor Bedard HIGHER than 0.5 assists
I like the Blackhawks to keep rolling tonight. The Ducks are shorthanded up front due to injuries and them being sellers at the deadline. That finally resulted in a lopsided loss their last time out to Dallas. Chicago is at home and Bedard is coming off a three-point effort. He’s got assists in seven of his last 12 games and looks like a solid bet to get on the scoresheet once again against the Ducks.
Sean Couturier HIGHER than 0.5 points
Sticking with this game, it’s a good time to target some of the Flyers' bigger names for a little breakout. Besides the obvious, they are playing San Jose, Couturier is also a good positive regression target as the Flyers center has gone pointless in six straight games.
Philadelphia moved Couturier up to the top power-play unit recently and he’s again playing alongside Travis Konecny at even strength, which should boost his point upside, especially against a weaker team like the Sharks. I like those two to get on track tonight and like the higher on Couturier as a prop to target for pick’em tickets on Underdog today.
