This Thursday we have a 12-game slate in the NHL to sink our teeth into.

It’s getting closer and closer to playoff time and we have seen the odds on big favorites get shorter and shorter as the season has worn on. Tonight, there are a couple of big favorites on the slate but also a handful of games with much closer odds and a few games set at near pick’em status.

There are also a lot of inter-divisional matchups to look forward to with the Oilers-Jets, Rangers-Flyers, and Panthers-Bruins all taking the ice.

With the stage set, let’s dive in and look for some value in today’s best bets.

NHL Picks for March 26

New York Rangers / Colorado Avalanche Moneyline parlay (-110, DraftKings)

  • Play to: -120

As I’ve discussed before, the favorites in the NHL have crushed over the last couple of weeks, and big favorites especially have been rock solid. The trade deadline only exacerbated the difference between the haves and have-nots and the odds can’t seem to catch up fast enough. We have a clear mismatch in Colorado today with the Canadiens coming into Denver off a four-game Western road swing.

The Avalanche are always a tough opponent for any road team just because of the thin mountain air but this year they’ve been especially impossible to beat at home. The Avalanche have a 28-6 home record this year and are coming off an incredible 5-4 OT win where they rallied from a 4-goal deficit.

They are super short in the odds already but considering they have a rest advantage (and Montreal as their opponent) anything better than -450 seems like decent value.

The Rangers aren’t nearly as short at -185 and New York, in my opinion, is very playable on their own at that price. The Blueshirts are nearly as dominant as Colorado at home (25-9) and playing a Flyers team they have been rock solid against the past few seasons.

New York is 9-0-1 against the Flyers over the last 10 meetings between these two teams and will have a rest advantage as well, having been off since Saturday. Again, I like playing the Rangers on their own (they are also -115 on the 60-minute line) but combining these two big home favorites on the straight moneyline gives us solid -110 odds.

Given how well the big favorites parlays have been doing in this article, I’ll go back to the well with this one again today.

Leafs / Devils over 6.5 goals (-118, DraftKings)

  • Play to: -120

The Leafs have been a hard over team at home. Toronto is 21-13 to the over this year in games played at Scotiabank Arena and will be playing a Devils team who is 39-32 to the over on the year as well.

Trends aside, these two teams look like the perfect mix to produce a high-scoring game right now. Neither team has elite goaltending with the Devils potentially starting Kaapo Kahkonen today who has a .897 save% on the year. Potential Leafs starter Joseph Wall was great his last time out but has posted just a .894 save% in 10 home starts this season.

Both of these teams are good at creating chances 5v5 but neither ranks inside the top 10 when it comes to limiting high-danger scoring chances, with the Leafs allowing the 11th most high-danger chances against on the season. The Devils' offense seems likely to take advantage in this spot as they’ve been shooting better of late and have landed 4 or more goals now in three of their last four games.

Expect the Devils to be relentless from the get-go – as their playoff chances are only one or two losses away from ending – and for this game to push towards higher-scoring status given the offense and goalies involved.

Predators win in regulation (+115, bet365)

  • Play to: +105

The Golden Knights are coming off an OT win against the Blues last night and will be at a rest disadvantage against the Predators, who closed out a 1-0 win against Detroit on Saturday. Despite the Predators being one of the most dominant teams in the league over the last month they aren’t getting a ton of respect on this line.

Nashville is only -140 on the moneyline (despite being off since Saturday) and is even bigger on the 60-minute line where I like taking them today.

The Predators have benefited from great goaltending by Jusse Saros over their run (they’re 7-0-1 over their last eight games) but have also been great 5v5 and are now 7th in xGF% (ahead of Vegas who is 13th in this stat). On top of having the edge in net and at even strength, the Predators are playing a weaker power-play in Vegas that has rarely been able to carry their team.

The Golden Knights added a lot of firepower at the deadline but it has yet to translate to more offense (they only managed two goals yesterday) and don’t have the look of a team I’d be willing to trust against a squad as hot as Nashville right now.

I like taking the discount on the Predators tonight and also discussed them as a potential great futures bet in the Monday Betting Life newsletter, if you are looking to leverage Nashville’s undervalued status in different markets.

 

NHL Player Props for March 26

Logan Stankoven over 2.5 shots (+140, bet365) 

  • Play to: +130

Logan Stankoven has been a solid addition for the Stars. The 21-year-old is producing on limited ice time and enters this game having produced three or more shots on net in eight of his 14 starts this season. He’s also coming off a six-shot performance against the Coyotes his last time out and will get to play another weaker Western Conference opponent tonight in the Sharks, who have allowed 34.9 shots per game – the most in the league. 

As Stankoven gets a few more games under his belt I’d expect the odds on his overs to compress a bit but, as of tonight, we can still get +140 to take the over on 2.5 shots. This is also a good spot for the Stars to roll three-lines with consistency so his ice time could even take a tick up against a team like San Jose.

There is always a little risk with taking the over on a third-line player prop but the price is too good not to follow the trend and try to cash the over once again on an emerging young player. 

Artturi Lehkonen anytime goal (+220; bet365)

Play to: +185

With big favorites like Colorado, who have big implied team totals (4.5 today) I always like to see if there is any way to leverage their favorite status in the prop market, specifically with overs in points or goals on some of their key players.

Artturi Lehkonen remains a top-six forward for the Avalanche who has recently been skating alongside the great Nathan MacKinnon. He comes into this matchup having scored five times in his last 11 games (45% hit rate) and has also scored seven times in 16 home games. Just based on the trends alone, Lehkonen looks like a decent value at anything better than +200 (33.33% implied probability).

However, I’d be remiss not to mention the solid narrative we have going on with Lehkonen playing his former team in Montreal.

Since leaving the Canadiens, Lehkonen has played Montreal twice and managed three goals in those two games, scoring twice against them in March of 2023. Given the way Colorado’s offense has been rolling, and the role Lehkonen is playing for them right now (top-line winger), this looks like a great time to hammer his goal prop and go for a bigger payout.

NHL Underdog Pick'em for March 26

Underdog 3-way NHL Pick'Em

Logan Stankoven HIGHER 2.0 shots 

See above

Blake Coleman HIGHER 2.5 shots

Blake Coleman has gone over this prop in four of his last five games and six of his last 11. The winger isn’t the most consistent scorer but he’s a shoot-first type of player who typically goes off in this stat in bunches and plays a team in the Blackhawks who have allowed the eighth-most shots against this season. Coleman should be busy tonight after not scoring in three straight.

Jack Hughes HIGHER 0.5 assists

I mentioned the over in this game above and the fact the Devils seem likely to keep their offense rolling against Toronto. Jack Hughes has landed an assist in seven of his last 11 games and 11 of his last 15 outings.

The fact we are not having to take the discounted payout on this prop today on Underdog makes it appealing and a good one to use to finish off our nightly 3-legger.