We’ve got a very manageable nine-game slate for the NHL tonight.
While there is a lot to choose from it’s worth noting that the Penguins, Devils, Islanders, Coyotes, and Jets will all be playing with solid rest advantages as their opponents all were in action last night.
With that in mind, there does look like some good opportunities to take advantage of this rest discrepancy and some of that has been reflected in the picks for today.
The NHL betting preview for March 3, 2024, is below.
Islanders win in regulation (-105; bet365)
- Play to: -120
The Islanders are coming off three straight wins that all came against legitimate playoff teams. They beat the Stars and Red Wings on the road and completely dominated the Bruins in a 5-1 win at home.
This does feel like a bit of a trap spot for a team that has been as inconsistent as they come in 2023-24 but the Islanders improved play also feels like it may (finally) have some legitimacy behind it as well.
The move to Patrick Roy as coach in January didn’t yield instant results but it looks like the change is starting to have some positive effect. The Islanders have yielded under 25 shots in two of their last three games (again, against legitimate playoff teams) and star Matthew Barzal has played better under Roy, and comes into this contest with points in 12 of his last 13 games.
It’s also already been announced that G Ilya Sorokin will start tonight for the Islanders, who is 12-5 with a .915 at home this season and coming off a dominant game against Boston. With the Blues coming off a game last night (that went into OT) this feels like the perfect spot for the Islanders to keep their streak going and build more momentum for a playoff push that is becoming more and more promising by the day.
This bet is one of my favorites of the slate and I placed this bet in our free NHL bet tracker as well.
Edmonton Oilers moneyline (-125, bet365)
- Play to: -130
This has been a funny series in that the home team almost always seems to come out as the loser when these two meet. Earlier in the season the Bruins caught the Oilers in a mini-slump (directly after they nearly broke the all-time win streak) and managed to eke out a 6-5 OT win in Edmonton.
However, the Oilers have had their number in Boston (at least in the McDavid era). Edmonton is 3-0 SU in Boston in the Oilers' last three visits to Beantown and has outscored the Bruins 12-6 in those games.
Maybe it’s just short-term luck and maybe it’s McDavid getting motivated by the very vocal Boston crowd but, regardless, I like that trend to continue today. The Bruins got a huge win against Toronto a couple of nights ago but that reprieve came mostly off the back of Jeremy Swayman (31 saves) as Toronto still carried the play for the most part in that game.
Boston’s issues go way further back than just that game as well. They’re last home game saw them nearly blow a lead to the failing Golden Knights and they were outplayed badly by a non-playoff team in the Islanders 5 days ago. There is also the fact the Oilers are now 14-1 in the last 15 road games and lead the league in xGF%, an issue for Boston who has been getting outplayed in that area by worse teams than the Oilers of late.
It’s strange to see the Bruains as home underdogs but given Edmonton’s road record and the fact we’ll get a rested Stuart Skinner in net tonight (who has solid road splits), I like taking the Oilers to win outright in this one down to -130.
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Yegor Chinakhov under 1.5 SOG (+130, DraftKings)
- Play to: +125
I like the price we’re getting to fade Chinakov tonight. The Russian’s playing time can vary wildly on a night-to-night basis with his floor being legitimately under 10 mins a game. While he’s in a top-six role for the Blue Jackets he also doesn’t get much PP1 exposure and the Blue Jackets don’t give much preference in terms of ice time to lines 2-4.
The Penguins are also a great matchup for an under. They’re coming off a terrible road loss and are a top-10 team at home in terms of shots allowed. Overall, Chinakov has been under this mark in six of his last 16 games but has also been shooting less on a short-term basis having landed 1.0 shot or less in three of his last five games.
With a plus matchup (for the under) I like taking a small shot that Pittsburgh limits him again, with the Blue Jackets shooters potentially all looking a little less frisky after playing last night.
You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
Roman Josi over 0.5 assists (-120, DraftKings)
- over 0.5 power-play points (+185)
- 2+ points (+270)
Josi comes into this game on an absolute tear. The Swiss defender has 16 points in his last 11 games and has landed multiple points in five of his last 11 games since the all-star break. He’s also landed a power-play point in each of his last three outings and tonight will face a Montreal team that ranks third last in power-play efficiency.
While I certainly like the -120 we are getting just for Josi to land us an assist (something he has done in 8 of his last 11 games, since the beginning of February) with Montreal in town spreading out our unit across the overs on 0.5 power-play points and 2+ points has a lot of appeal at these prices.
Despite the +185 odds (for him to go over 0.5 power play points) offering us 35% implied probability, Josi has actually hit the over on this special teams prop in six of his last 11 games (54.5% hit rate). Additionally, he has multiple points in five of his last 11 games (45% hit rate), which gives us good value off the 27% implied probability being offered at +270 for him to go for 2+ points.
Either way you slice it, Josi looks like a great bet to land in the in-the-point column again today. While I really like the -120 price we’re getting just for a straight assist to happen there is definitely value in laddering him for bigger paydays in the alternate player prop markets given both his form and the opponent.
Josi is also a good target if you are making NHL pick’em lineups on Underdog tonight. You can follow along for more pick’em plays with our FREE Underdog pick’em tracker.
Matthew Barzal SOG Ladder
I mentioned the Islanders above and their matchup with the Blues. St. Louis allowed 41 shots against another Eastern Conference opponent last night and with them now being on the tail end of a back-to-back, this feels like a great time to go hunting in the alternate lines market for some shot-on-goal props with the Islanders forwards.
While he’s perhaps a little less consistent than some of the other top shooters in the NHL, Barzal’s upside in this stat category is no joke. He’s hit 7 or more SOG in a game three times since the start of January and has gone for 4+ shots now in three of his last five games. His time on the ice in this contest certainly won’t be a concern either as the Islanders last played three days ago.
While I’d certainly be fine starting a ladder bet on Barzal at 4+ SOG (+150) the better value with this bet is in the bigger numbers at 5+ SOG (+320) and 6+ SOG (+650). He’s gone for 5+ SOG this season 13 times already but three of those performances have come in his last 9 games (33.33% hit rate).
With the +320 odds at 5+ SOG giving us a 22% implied probability of this hitting it stands to reason that the short-term trend from Barzal makes this a good value, especially in a plus matchup against the Blues – who are at a big rest disadvantage and allow 32.1 shots against per game (8th most in the league).
