There are some pretty classic mismatches on the slate today. The Devils, Oilers, Kings, and Panthers all look like they could produce landslide wins and will likely be popular bets given the public’s propensity for chasing the big favorites. While these games may produce blowout wins there are also some juicy-looking opportunities in the prop market to look at for these elite offenses as well.
Of note, Edmonton and Las Vegas both added some names via trade yesterday and the Senators and Flames both traded away key veteran players from their squad. It’s hard to know how these teams will respond but with the trade deadline looming on Friday it’s important to keep note of these transactions.
With all that in mind, I’ve broken down my favorite plays for today below for March 7, 2024, below.
Devils puckline (+136; DraftKings)
- Play to: +130
Outside of one lucky 2-1 SO win over the Flyers, the Blues have been a great fade when they are on the road. They’re 1-5-1 over their last seven road starts and four out of their five losses have come by two goals or more. I’ve stayed off the Devils of late, who continue to be frustrating for bettors given the talent they offer, but this feels like the right time to jump back on them. The shock of the coaching change from Lindy Ruff to Travis Green has likely worn off and the team, who is still in the midst of a playoff run, will likely have their eyes tilted back towards the ice tonight.
The Blues are a plus matchup in a lot of different ways for the Devils. They’re one of the weakest teams in the league 5v5 (43.31 xGF%) while New Jersey continues to dominate in that area despite their unimpressive record. Further, while the Devils’ penalty kill can be a weakness they’re playing a team in St. Louis that is just 26th in power-play efficiency.
The Devils have just 5 wins in their last 12 starts but four of those wins have come by two goals or more. With a couple of days rest to soak in the management change and a weaker opponent in the Blues, who look on the verge of waving the white flag for the year, this seems like a fine spot to chase a bigger number and go with the Devils on the puckline at home.
Lightning win in regulation (+110; bet365)
- Play to: +105
I’m not super impressed with the Lightning of late but this is a tough spot for a young Flames team. They continued to sell off assets yesterday trading away one of their best defenders in Noah Hanifin, and that could have ripple effects for potential starter Jacob Markstrom as well, who may be on his way out soon – perhaps even before this game begins.
Either way, there is certainly a distraction element to be aware of with Calgary, who will also be catching a very well-rested Lightning team (off since Saturday), who has also been extremely tough to beat at home. Tampa is 19-8 straight-up this season and is 6-0 in their last six home games against Western Conference foes (a run that includes a 6-3 win over the Avalanche).
The Flames went on a nice run after dealing away veteran Elias Lindholm but their shooters went cold against the Kraken and will face a goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy who is 12-6 at home this season. While I’m not super bullish on Tampa for the post-season this is a decent price we are getting on them to take down a Flames team who may be more focused on the breaking news section of ESPN than this game.
Kings vs Senators under 6.5 (-118, DraftKings)
- Play to: -125
I’m a little surprised that this number opened at 6.5 (-110) but not surprised that the odds have started to drift towards the under. The Senators have been a horrific road team this season and their scoring issues away from home have been reflected in their O/U record to some extent. While they have a robust 20-10-1 at hitting overs when at home their record on the road is just 12-15 and have been a far better under wager when outside of Ottawa.
The Senators also just traded away one of their better shooting wingers in Vladimir Tarsenko and will be playing their second game in two nights, after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Ducks, (who played that game with a skeleton crew of forwards).
It certainly begs the question that if Ottawa couldn’t breakout against the Ducks, how will they score at all against a Kings team who have allowed the fourth fewest high-danger scoring chances this season? There is the chance the Kings simply hit the over in this game on their own but it’s hard to be too fearful of a team that managed just one goal in their last home outing. L.A. has also been a dead under team all season (38-21-2 to the under) and each of their last nine games has seen 6 total goals or less scored. I like sticking with the trend and playing this one to be lower-scoring as well.
Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points (+125; bet365)
Draisaitl comes into this game on a heater. He scored both of the Oilers' goals in their last game against the Bruins (including an OT winner) and has now landed multiple points in 7 of his last 10 games – and also has 2+ points in each of his last four road games.
Despite the uptick in production, this line is still hovering at just 44.4% implied probability (+125) and looks like tremendous value given the opponent. The Blue Jackets can be feisty but one thing they are not is a defensive juggernaut. Three of their last five opponents have landed four goals or more against them and they’ve now allowed the sixth-most high-danger scoring chances against on the season.
Draisaitl should have plenty of opportunity to continue scoring in this game and with the Oilers adding in some reinforcements yesterday via trade, it’s hard to see him or this team coming out flat. While the total has crept up to 7.0 at many spots Draisaitl’s odds remain solid and look like a better way to get exposure to the upside of the Oilers offense in this spot.
Draisaitl is also a good target if you are making NHL pick’em lineups on Underdog tonight. You can follow along for more pick’em plays with our FREE Underdog pick’em tracker.
Brock Nelson 2+ points (+255; DraftKings)
The Islanders are rolling right now. Winners of four in a row, the Brooklyn-based squad has scored 17 goals over their last four games and they look likely to twinkle the twine at a high rate again tonight. The Sharks have been beaten for an embarrassing 27 goals over their last five games and will be ripe opponents for Islanders centre Brock Nelson who has been at the forefront of the offensive explosion of late for New York.
Nelson has scored multiple points in four of his last eight starts now and remains entrenched as the Islanders top line winger and a fixture on their power play – which has improved of late and is in a great spot against the Sharks penalty-kill that is second-last in efficiency (73.9%).
While I’d not put anyone off taking the Islanders puck line (-1.5; -105), or an over on their team total (3.5; -135), Nelson’s alternate line is another way to get exposure to the Islanders offense in this spot. The winger has outperformed the +255 odds (28.17% implied probability) in the short term and looks like a solid value at these levels for those wanting to stick to the prop market as opposed to chasing shorter lines on the match.
