Round 2 of the playoffs has two game sixes on tap for our best NHL bets for Friday's playoff games.
The Bruins host the Panthers and the Avalanche host the Stars. Both home teams staved off elimination in Game 5 but can they do it again in Game 6? Geoff Ulrich investigates that and more in today’s preview….
NHL Bets for Friday, May 17
Dallas Stars Moneyline (+100; DraftKings)
The Stars blew a chance to close out the Avalanche in Game 5, eventually ceding five goals on the night to a motivated and fired-up Colorado offense. Two power-play goals in that contest helped along the Avalanche and the penalty-kill is an area I’m sure the Stars will be more detail-oriented with in Game 6.
Despite the comeback win in Game 5, the Avalanche are still dealing with a semi-skeleton crew lineup after the loss of Valeri Nichuskin. They’ve also had to deal with an injury to their top pairing defenseman in Devon Toews and shaky goaltending from Alexander Georgiev; who enters this game with a .890 SV% and has been, by far, the worse of the two starters in this series.
The Stars have already shown their mettle after coming back from 0-2 down in Round 1 against the defending champions and have been a dominant road team all season (including the playoffs, they are 30-11-5 on the road in 2023-24). They’re also 3-0 in Colorado over their last three visits to Ball Arena and have averaged 5.33 goals per game in those wins. Just given the Avalanche’s depth issues and the goaltenders on either side, I’d have this matchup rated closer to a pick’em but would play Dallas down to -110 today.
I simply don’t think the Avalanche have the depth or goaltending to come back in this series and with Dallas’ road record, seeing them close things out tonight feels like the most obvious way for this series to end.
Carter Verhaeghe Anytime Goal (+200; bet365)
Going back to the well with a Carter Verhaeghe goal prop today is well warranted. The Forward has cooled off from a scoring perspective since the start of the Bruins series (five goals in five games vs Tampa Bay, one goal in five games vs Boston) but it hasn’t been from a lack of shooting volume. He’s landed 17 shots on net in this series while also attempting 43 shots, overall, vs the B’s.
The Panthers got outplayed by Boston in Game 5 but have still been the more dominant 5v5 team in this series. Verhaeghe is also no stranger to big moments. He’s the Panthers’ all-time leader in playoff goals and has five career OT goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As this series progresses, it’s hard to see him being held off the scoresheet for much longer.
With this being a huge game and Verhaghe’s price now sitting as high as +200 (the largest it’s been all playoffs) it’s a solid time to reinvest.
David Pastrnak Anytime Goal (+140; FanDuel)
Just like Verhaeghe, David Pastrnak is no stranger to scoring in big games. He eliminated the Leafs in Round 1 with a goal early in the first OT and scored three times in the final two games of last year’s series against Florida, as the Bruins desperately attempted to fend off the Panthers.
The Bruins were unsuccessful in that venture last season and may be unsuccessful again but it likely won’t be from a lack of effort from Pastrnak. He’s only scored once in this series but has attempted 29 shots over the last five games and feels like another player who is overdue for some positive regression today. Add in the fact he’s going against Sergei Bobrovsky, who has posted SV%’s under .900 in six of 10 playoff starts to date, and you have to love the +140 price we are getting once again on the Bruins’ winger – who regularly went off closer to +100 in this market during the regular season.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Friday
- 3-way, 10.5x Multiplier
I didn’t include any goal props from the Avalanche/Stars game above but one name to keep an eye for that market today is Joe Pavelski, who ended his long playoff drought in Game 5 with a goal.
After going five games with just one shot on net, the veteran now has 11 shots in his last four games and looks far more aggressive in this series than he did against the Golden Knights, where he allowed Jason Robertson to do more heavy lifting.
Pavelski’s got a big multiplier and building around it allows us to play into a narrative that has the Stars winning this game. Jake Oettinger didn’t see as many pucks as I thought he would in Game 5, but if Dallas is up late I can’t see his volume not increasing today.
Mikko Rantanen’s SOG prop is listed at 3.5 on many sportsbooks, so the fact it’s sitting at 3.0 on Underdog (with no multiplier discount attached) makes it attractive.
Oettinger and Rantanen not only correlate well but fit in with Pavelski's goal prop in the sense that if he’s putting the Stars ahead with a goal, we should see more pucks fired on Oettinger and more shots from an Avalanche star like Rantanen.
