It may only be Round 2 of the NHL playoffs, but tonight has massive implications for the Edmonton Oilers when we look for our best bets for Oilers vs. Canucks Game 7.

This season marks the ninth year that three-time league MVP Connor McDavid has been on the team. To date, the Oilers have only managed to reach the Conference Finals once during his tenure (2021-22, where the Avalanche swept them) and a loss tonight would mark the fifth time in six post-season appearances that McDavid’s season ended in Round 2 or earlier.

To raise the stakes even higher the roadblock currently in front of McDavid and the Oilers is also a team that most predicted wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. The Canucks were around -140 to -150 at most sportsbooks in the preseason Playoff Prop Odds to MISS the Playoffs but managed to outperform the Oilers in both the regular season (109 points to 104 points) and the head-to-head meetings (7-3 in favor of Vancouver this season).

Teams that win Game 5 when tied 2-2 in the NHL playoffs have close to an 80% success rate (of closing out the series). However, the Oilers’ Game 6 win (a dominant 5-1 route) certainly put some doubt in the minds of those who saw the Canucks as the superior team.

So will we see another year of McDavid’s prime go up in flames or can Edmonton prevail and put an end to the Canucks run? Let’s dive in.

Best Bets for Oilers vs. Canucks Game 7

Oilers Win in Regulation (+105; DraftKings)

Things looked bleak for the Oilers just 72 hours ago. They were outplayed by the Canucks in Game 5 (who held them to 23 shots on net) and were facing elimination in Game 6 on home ice. 

Head coach Kris Knoblauch made the gutsy call to switch back to the much-maligned Stuart Skinner in net and the team rallied to hold Vancouver to just 15 shots on net in a 5-1 win. The Oilers also managed to dominate play at even strength, something they haven’t done almost the entire series, landing all five of their goals at 5v5. 

Then, as if they needed more momentum, it was announced yesterday that Vancouver forward Brock Boeser, who leads all Canucks skaters in goals scored this postseason, had been ruled out of Game 7 due to a blood clot. This leaves the somewhat anemic Canucks offense down their best scorer and in need of another massive game from their third-string goalie, Artrus Silovs — who after getting beat five times in Game 6 now feels a little like Cinderella on the 11th stroke of Midnight. 

The Oilers moneyline price has moved as low as -166 on some sportsbooks so if you are targeting Edmonton, the Regulation Line or Puck Line is likely the better way to play. The Oilers have a goalie in Stuart Skinner who seems to have regained his confidence (and had a 33-save road shutout in Round 1), and a best-in-class power play capable of extending leads or breaking open a game at any time. 

I expect this number to get shorter by puck drop but would play the Oilers down to -105. Vancouver gets credit for keeping this series extremely close for five games but I would rather play for the upside of the Oilers’ talent prevailing than take a swing with the big prices on the home underdog.

Quinn Hughes Under 0.5 Points (+150; bet365)

Vancouver has scored just six times over the last three games and their power play is the worst of the remaining playoff teams. Quinn Hughes is coming off a season where he landed 75 assists but he’s been slowed in the playoffs. Through 12 playoff games, he has zero goals and has points in just six of those 12 games.

Both the Oilers and Predators have dynamic penalty kills that have frustrated Vancouver’s power play and slowed Hughes considerably — he has just 11 shots on net in this series. Given how tightly Game 7’s can be called, there may not be many man advantages for Hughes to participate in tonight, either.

At +150, his under suggests a 40% implied probability but his true hit rate (to the under) in these playoffs has been much higher. Given the circumstances, there are decent edges lurking on several unders tonight in the prop department, with Hughes’ likely offering some of the best overall value.

Igor Shesterkin to win Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) (+550; FanDuel)

We’re down to four teams but there are still ways we can find leverage in the futures market. New York is down to +350 or lower in the Stanley Cup outright odds, but their star goalie is still available at +550 on Fanduel to win the Conn Smythe trophy, awarded annually to the playoffs most valuable player.

Igor Shesterkin isn’t the only reason his team has advanced through two rounds of the NHL playoffs, but most would admit he’s been a huge driving force for this run they are on. His 0.923 SV% leads all remaining goaltenders and he stopped 33 or more shots in three of the Rangers' four Round 2 wins.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility a player like Chris Kreider or Artemi Panarin gets red hot over the next two series (assuming the Rangers win the cup) and cuts down the lead Shesketrkin has over them in this market. However, the Rangers have benefited from a group approach with five different names currently sitting between 10 and 14 points in the playoff scoring race.

New York is also about to play Florida, a team great at getting pucks on net and creating shots 5v5 (they lead all remaining playoff teams in shots per game – 33.0). Hence, we should expect Shesterkin to be extremely busy again in this series which only makes it more likely he will extend his lead in this category (over his teammates) should the Rangers prevail.

While this award can (theoretically) go to anyone in the playoffs it almost always goes to a member of the winning team. Only five times in NHL history has a member of the losing squad won the trophy and the last time that happened was in 2003 (Jean-Sebastien Giguere).

In short, while there is a little risk involved in taking this approach, seeing the Rangers host the cup and one of their players not get this award is an extremely low-probability event. The far more likely scenario is that any Rangers win means we see one of their players take home this award, with Shesterkin being the most likely winner. While it’s not set in stone he wins this award (if the Rangers win) the spread in odds feels too high and makes his award odds a better value proposition than simply making a straightforward play on the Rangers to win the cup.

Underdog NHL Pick’em for Monday

  • 3-way, 7.01x Multiplier

As I mentioned above, I believe there is a good chance we see another lower-scoring game between Edmonton and Vancouver tonight. The Canucks simply don’t generate a ton of high-danger scoring chances and while they have had luck against the Oilers weaker goaltending, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we see a ceiling type of game from Skinner either.

Underdog NHL Pick’em

I like playing Hughes’ LOWER which gives us a nice multiplier base to build off of, but combining it with Elias Lindholm’s LOWER allows us to double down on thesis at a solid price. He’s priced at -125 on several books to have no points and the fact we don’t have to take a reduced multiplier on his LOWER on Underdog makes him a solid deal.

Finally, if we like the Oilers tonight, playing the HIGHER on McDavid’s goal prop gives us some exposure to that thesis. He's only scored once in this series but will be on the ice an abnormal amount in Game 7 and may even get some decent empty net chances if the Oilers are up late in this game.