The Conference Finals start today in the NHL with the President’s Trophy-winning New York Rangers taking on the Florida Panthers in New York. Despite being the first seed in the East, the Rangers are still underdogs in this series and at home for Game 1. So are the Rangers being taken too lightly, or is there value on the favorites? Geoff Ulrich answers below.

Best Bets for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 1

Panthers win in Regulation (+145; DraftKings)

The Panthers come into this game with one fewer day of rest than the Rangers, which may be a good thing. Their long layoff after Round 1 saw Florida come out flat in Game 1 against Boston, and while they turned things around quickly the Panthers undoubtedly want to avoid a similar outcome in Round 3 and should be ready for the Rangers tonight.

Momentum and narratives aside, the Panthers have also proven that they’re the superior skating team in these playoffs. The Rangers are operating at a 31% clip on the power play but rank last of all four remaining teams in xGF% at even strength for the playoffs – while Florida ranks first. The Panthers' heavy-handed approach saw them outshoot Boston in every single game in Round 2, and eventually wear the Bruins down. If they come out hard for Game 1, they can likely catch the Rangers off guard and potentially get them chasing again early. The Panthers have also proven to be an adept penalty-killing team themselves, with solid depth they can rotate throughout the game, so it's no guarantee we see the Rangers' power-play operate with the same kind of efficiency we have seen throughout the playoffs thus far.

When it boils down to it, Florida is available at -115 on the Moneyline and +145 on the regulation line today. For comparison, they went off at -155 on the straight Moneyline in Game 6 in Boston, so while the Panthers remain the favorites, they’re being priced as if their opponent today is far superior to the one they just beat. The Rangers are solid, but I’m not sure if they’re necessarily a huge step above Boston, making this discounted regulation price on Florida worth taking for Game 1.

🏒 Sam Reinhart over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+125; bet365)

Sam Reinhart has been a machine for the Panthers for much of these playoffs, and really all season. The winger accumulated 57 goals in the regular season and scored twice in the final four games against Boston. He also attempted 49 shots during Round 2 (8.16 attempts per game) and landed 25 shots on net (51% hit rate and 4.16 shots on net per game).

Despite the solid production, Reinhart’s odds today in the shots-on-goal market have seemingly reset once again; as his total remains set at 3.5 and his over is available at +120 or better on most sportsbooks.  The Rangers have some great special teams but they’re not much different from Boston in that they do allow a decent number of shots on net (32.5 per game in the playoffs) and tend to over-rely on their elite goaltending to make stops for them so they can counter with speed and aggressiveness.

That’s good news for Reinhart who seems unlikely to slow down much from his Round 2 pace, making his over a decent value for today’s Game 1.

Adam Fox Under 0.5 Points (-115; DraftKings)

Adam Fox remains the Rangers' best defender but he has been less of a factor for them on the scoresheet in the playoffs than he was during the regular season. Playing a tough 5v5 team in the Hurricanes last round likely had something to do with Fox’s inefficiency on the scoresheet (2 assists and no goals in six games) and that’s a trend I could see carrying over against Florida as well.

The Panthers are not only good at controlling the flow at 5v5 but they were one of the best at limiting defensemen during the regular season, allowing the fewest goals against to position of all 16 playoff teams in 2023-24. Playing the Fox under tonight correlates well with our Panthers thesis – so it could also be used in same game parlays with a Panthers moneyline pick – but given his slowed production, the -115 odds seem to offer value in their own right.

Until New York shows they can play Florida even 5v5, the under on many of the Rangers player props will likely offer a good opportunity. 

Underdog NHL Pick’em for Wednesday

  • 5-way, 13.43x Multiplier

 

I think we can correlate five plays that all correlate with the same kind of game outcome today for a pretty decent multiplier on Underdog. We already talked about the Panthers' ability to generate and limit shots above and taking Sergei Bobrovsky’s LOWER on goals against is another way to play for a Panthers win. Bobrovsky played well against Boston and has been solid against New York (.919 SV%) this year.

With Reinhart shooting a ton and playing alongside Aleksander Barkov, using the Barkov assist HIGHER gives us some solid correlation with our other two Panthers props as well.

Underdog NHL Pick’em

I already discussed a Fox LOWER play from up above but I also like fading Alexis Lafreniere in this matchup. Florida has allowed the fewest shots on goal per game in the playoffs of all four remaining teams and will be a tough matchup for the 22-year-old, who typically doesn’t see top-unit power play exposure.

All-in-all, a lower-scoring Rangers output fits in perfectly with three of our plays and all we need in return is a little production from the Panthers' top two forwards. That’s a risk I'm willing to take for a 13x payout.