Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals goes off tonight in Miami. The Panthers dropped Game 3 5-4 in OT after nearly completing an epic comeback. This series has now seen two OT games in a row after the Panthers took Game 1 by a 3-0 score.

The Rangers were outshot by a wide margin in Game 3 but again got timely special teams play, including a short-handed goal to put them up 4-2. They’re now just six wins away from winning Lord Stanley so it's getting harder to say that this run they are on is unsustainable (it technically only needs to last six more games). 

So do we go back to New York and ride the momentum or trust the Panthers to even the series? Let’s dive into our best bets for Tuesday’s Game 4 below. 

Best Bets for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 4

Panthers Puck line (+160; bet365)

Clearly, the oddsmakers today are expecting a Panthers bounce back. Florida is set as -165 home favorites which is shorter than the -155 they opened at for Game 3. The Panthers outshot the Rangers badly in Game 3 and even had the edge on special teams scoring twice on the man advantage.

However, New York got another high-end start from Igor Shesterkin, scored short-handed, and again made the most of their counter-attack opportunities. 

Admittedly, the Rangers are starting to feel a little bit like a team of destiny, but destiny doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily have a cakewalk to the Finals either. Florida knows they have been outplaying New York and aren’t likely to take this Game 4 lightly after they blew a chance to go up 2-1. The Rangers' big hope likely rests on the shoulders of Shesterkin, and if he plays to his ceiling they’ll have every chance of pulling out another close win.

However, given how badly the Rangers have been outshot (37 to 23 in SOG and 108 to 43 in Shot Attempts in Game 3) I think there is just as good a chance that we see the Panthers win and potentially win with a little added cushion this time; thanks either to an empty net or a potentially tired Shesterkin.

Either way, with the money line being shorter than it was in Game 3, the way to play the Panthers for me tonight is to take the bigger odds and play for a more complete game from Florida that doesn’t see them give up so many loose goals. If that happens there’s a strong likelihood we see a result more akin to Game 1 when the Panthers cruised to a 3-0 win, which makes these puck line odds well worth playing. 

Sam Bennett 3+ SOG (+158; FanDuel)

Bennett’s accuracy is either completely shot or he’s simply going through an awful patch of luck. Over his last two games, he’s now attempted 16 shots and only two of those have been recorded as shots on net.

The Rangers are blocking shots at a high rate and 10 of Bennett’s last 16 shot attempts have technically been blocked, but that sort of block rate also seems unsustainable in the long run. Additionally, while he’s been held to just one shot on net in each of the last two games, he also recorded five shots on net in Game 1 off of just seven shot attempts so we know what his true upside is in this category as well. All-in-all, the stats say that a bigger night in the SOG category is likely coming for Bennett again very soon.

As you can imagine, even with his heavy shot attempts, the odds on his over have been driven upward after two straight poor outings. He’s as big as +158 now on Fanduel to reach three shots on net and that’s big enough for me to play. Paul Maurice has already joked that the Panthers aren’t going to stop shooting the puck just because they have lost two in a row.

That message seems directly related to a player like Bennett, who has had a couple of tough luck outings but also now seems due for regression in multiple areas, including most specifically the SOG category. 

Same Game Parlay for Panthers vs. Rangers Game 4

Rangers Same Game Parlay (+575; bet365)

  • Chris Kreider anytime goal 
  • Chris Kreider over 2.5 SOG
  • Mika Zibanejad over 0.5 assists

If you want to take a bigger swing with a same game parlay tonight I do think playing for some positive regression on some of the big Rangers forwards is worthwhile. Chris Kreider has yet to do a single thing in this series worth mentioning which in some ways makes the fact the Rangers are leading even more impressive.

Kreider is still the heart and soul of the Rangers' power play and he’s likely to make an impact at some point over the next couple of games, even if it doesn’t necessarily lead to a Rangers win. 

New York knows it can’t stay stagnant on the power play and expect to beat Florida straight up so I would also expect more urgency from Kreider today, who only attempted one shot in Game 3. He did manage six shot attempts in Game 1 against Florida and also managed three shots on net in three of the six games against Carolina, so the upside is there for him to break out on any night.

Pairing his anytime goal with a Zibanejad assist and an over on his own 2.5 shots on goal total gets us to +575 which are nice odds for an SGP, most of which can be taken care of off of play. 

I still favor Florida today but if the Rangers do make this game higher scoring or wreck our Panthers Puck Line bet by getting to Bobrovsky, it’s nice to have a bigger SGP like this on Kreider to rely on as well.