The NHL is starting to wind down, with most teams having seven to eight games remaining on their schedule. While the Western Conference isn’t that tight, there is a race for the final playoff spot, with the Blues, Kings, and Predators all within six points of each other. All those teams are in action tonight with the Blues and Preds playing each other in what is a must-win game for St. Louis.
Things are much tighter in the East, with the Islanders, Capitals, Flyers, Red Wings, and Penguins all within four points of each other and vying for the final two playoff spots. The Penguins and Capitals meet today, while the Islanders have an easy matchup against Columbus that they must take advantage of.
With the playoffs looming, let’s dive into the slate and see what matchups and props offer us the best opportunities for betting.
Blues at Predators Under 6.0 goals (-105; Bet365)
- Play to: -115
The Blues and Predators meet today in what is an extremely pivotal Western conference matchup. The Blues are only six points behind the Preds (and five points behind the Kings) for a wildcard spot and desperately need two points in this game.
The Predators have also lost three games in a row and have regressed on offense of late, but they did hold the Bruins to two scoreless periods in their last outing. Both sides also have elite goaltending, which will make goals hard to come by. Jusse Saros uncharacteristically had a couple of poor games in a row but rebounded against Boston, stopping 29 of 31 shots. Jordan Binnington has been stellar most of the second half of the season and is coming off a great game against Edmonton. Ultimately, this game should have a playoff-like atmosphere, with both teams clinging to their defensive structure and trying to take advantage of opportunities when they come.
Both of these teams also trend towards the under, with the Blues posting a 22-14-1 record to the under on the road this year and the Predators posting a 22-15-1 record to the under in home games. With the line still at -105, the under on 6.0 goals looks like a solid bet for Thursday.
Panthers -1.5 (+165; Bet365)
- Play to: +150
I’ll bite and play the Panthers to show up with a solid bit of positive regression in the win column. The Panthers have faltered of late after a strong midseason run, losing four of their last five games with back-to-back multiple-goal losses to the Canadiens and Leafs.
The Senators went on a nice run recently but came back to reality in their last game as goalie Joonas Korpisalo allowed three goals on just 19 shots in a 3-2 loss to the Wild. That kind of goaltending could really get the Senators in trouble against a Panthers team that is still creating lots of quality chances 5v5 and has multiple players looking to break out of slumps.
Florida has been solid on the road all season, posting a 25-14 record on the puck line in away games, and their recent tough stretch has mainly been due to running into some elite goaltending on the other side of the ice. They likely won’t face that same issue today against the Senators, who don’t have anything but pride to play for down the stretch. I’d look for a better effort from the Panthers today, a team that needs to get some positive momentum before the playoffs begin.
Jets to Win in Regulation (-115; Bet365)
- Play to: -120
Much like the Predators and Panthers, the Jets are another team I expect to get out of their recent funk soon. Winnipeg had gone 0-5-1 in their last six games before a much-needed 4-3 home win against the Kings on Monday. They now sit just a point above the Oilers for the fourth seed, a team they need to stay in front of if they want home-ice advantage in the first round.
The Flames have been an extremely up-and-down team since the deadline and don't have the same defensive structure or elite goaltending they relied on before gutting their lineup. They’ve allowed four or more goals in four of their last six games and are coming off a 5-3 loss to the Ducks, who have been one of the league’s worst offenses since the trade deadline.
The Flames have beaten the Jets twice already this season, but both of those games came before March; I don’t expect a similar result this time. The Jets have a clear edge in net with Vezina front-runner Connor Hellebuyck and will be up against a water-downed version of the Flames power-play. The Jets have been great at home all season (24-11 SU; 21-17 ATS), and with them having built some momentum recently, I like taking them on the 3-way moneyline at close to -110 odds.
Brock Nelson Over 0.5 points (-135; DraftKings)
- Play to: -140
The Islanders play the Blue Jackets today in a pivotal game for New York. Given how weak Columbus is defensively, we could go hunting for some alternate line or goal props on some of the Islanders' top players. However, I’m also happy to take the value on this shorter line for Brock Nelson simply to get us a point.
Nelson remains entrenched as a part of the Islanders' top six and first-unit power play, scoring 61 points in 75 games. While he hasn’t been super productive of late, he did score two games ago against the Flyers and has landed 11 points in his last 10 starts against Columbus. The Islanders need this game badly (they are one point out of the playoffs), and they have tended to pour it on when up against the Blue Jackets, having scored four or more goals against them in six of the last nine matchups.
While you could certainly look to Nelson in the anytime goal department, his line to score a goal today isn’t huge at +130. If you’re looking for a bigger payout, going to the alternate point props is likely a better move (over 1.5 points is at +340 on bet365). Either way, points for Nelson look promising and worth playing as long as the line on his over doesn’t get too short.
Aleksander Barkov Anytime Goalscorer (+150; DraftKings)
- Play to: +140
One Panther who hasn’t struggled of late is centre Aleksander Barkov, who enters this game with six points and four goals over his last four games. Barkov has been a more active shooter of late as the Panthers are dealing with injuries to some of their star wingers. Carter Verhaeghe (out) and Matthew Tkachuk (questionable - illness) both missed their last game, and Verhaughe is almost certainly out again after being deemed week-to-week.
The Senators also make for great opponents, in general. They’re third-to-last in penalty-kill efficiency and have one of the weakest goalie tandems in the league. Barkov has unsurprisingly found a ton of success in this matchup over his career and had three goals in three games against Ottawa last season.
Given the injury issues plaguing the Panthers and the opponent, the +150 offering looks like a strong number. Barkov has scored in five of his last nine games, and his upside as a shooter remains slightly higher with Verhaeghe out.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for April 4
Brock Nelson HIGHER 0.5 points
See above…
Viktor Arvidsson HIGHER 0.5 goals
Arvidesson’s goal prop is another one that had my eye, and we have a solid 1.5x multiplier on Underdog to take advantage of. The former Predator has killed the Sharks, landing nine goals against them over his last 12 meetings. Using Arvidsson over Barkov for a goal prop on Underdog also gets us exposure to the Kings’ offense in a great spot against San Jose.
Cayden Primeau HIGHER 26.5 saves
The Lightning aren’t necessarily the greatest team at creating shots, but the Canadiens also tend to allow every team they face to see a bump in SOG. Montreal has allowed 33.0 shots per game this season, and Primeau has now averaged 33.0 saves over his last five starts. He’s also been terrific at home this year. With this line set very low, the HIGHER is a good way to round out our 3-way pick’em for Thursday.
