This Tuesday has a solid eight-game slate on tap. Last night we saw some major upsets on the ice as big underdogs in Pittsburgh, Columbus, and Detroit were all victorious, vanquishing playoff teams in the Rangers, Avalanche, and Lightning, respectively.
Underdogs have not been the trend lately in the NHL as big faves have been coming through regularly. We don’t have a ton of overwhelming favorites on the slate today (the Islanders are currently the biggest moneyline favorites at home vs the Blackhawks) but there are quite a few playoff-style matchups with big implications for positioning and playoff qualification that will impact our NHL bets today.
The NHL best bets for Tuesday, April 2nd are below.
NHL Bets Today - Tuesday, April 2
Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (-130; DraftKings)
- Play to: -140
The Golden Knights may be hitting their stride at exactly the right time with the playoffs looming. Vegas has won five of their last six games and has points in six straight.
Even so, they are still nothing more than small favorites in this spot against a Canucks team that is without their top goalie and has seen their offense run cold down the stretch. Vancouver has only scored more than three goals twice in their last eight outings and was held to under three goals by both the Stars and Kings in recent losses.
Tonight won’t get any easier for the Canucks. Vegas has been playing better defensively of late (their penalty-kill is now above average on the season) and has received some great goaltending from tonight’s likely starter Logan Thompson, who has posted save percentages of .969 or better in three straight wins. Thompson has been near unstoppable at home this year, going 13-5-1 with a .922 save percentage.
You could justify going Vegas on the regulation line tonight but with how good Vancouver is defensively if they get a lead at some point then OT is a definite possibility. I’d rather go to the straight moneyline where the Golden Knights look most undervalued and in a good spot to pay off today.
New Jersey Devils to Win in Regulation (+105; bet365)
- Play to: -105
I’ll ride with the Devils once more today. New Jersey is coming off a bad loss to the Sabres last Friday where they took an early 2-0 lead and ended up losing the game 5-2. New Jersey had been playing better before that game and are 4-2 straight up over their last six games, with big wins over the Leafs and Jets in that span.
Tonight they catch the Penguins at home who are on the tail-end of a back-to-back and playing a team in New Jersey they have struggled with immensely over the last couple of years. The Devils are 7-0 straight-up vs the Penguins over the last seven meetings between these two teams and, after Pittsburgh gutted their lineup somewhat at the deadline, are clearly the better team 5v5 and on special teams.
New Jersey has also been getting more timely scoring from winger Timo Meier of late (13 goals in March) and will likely be up against goalie Tristan Jarry who has allowed 5 goals against in each of his last five meetings with the Devils.
The Devils goaltending took a small step back last Friday but Jake Allen has been solid for them and made 36 saves against the Penguins in a 5-2 Devils win two weeks ago. Given the situation, with Pittsburgh being on a back-to-back and New Jersey playing better as a team, I like going bigger with New Jersey and backing them on the regulation line.
They’ve covered that bet in the last four meetings between these teams and it looks like they are in a great spot to do so again tonight.
Timo Meier Anytime Goalscorer (+145; DraftKings)
- Play to: +140
Meier didn’t find the twine against the Sabres in his last outing but there is little doubt that he has been one of the hottest players in the league lately from a goal-scoring perspective. The German has 13 goals over his last 15 games (all in March) and scored twice against Pittsburgh, attempting eight shots on goals in the Devils' 5-2 win on March 19th.
The Penguins have been solid at shutting down opposing centers (fewest goals allowed to opposing centers this season) and Meier’s goal prop is still much bigger than Jack Hughes’ (Hughes is around +105) – despite Meier vastly outperforming Hughes as a goalscorer in March (13 to 7).
There is also a bit of a motivation angle for Meier after he was left off the NHL’s all-fantasy team for March – despite his big month.
Either way, I like attacking the Penguins tonight. New Jersey’s goaltending is always a roller coaster but Meier should be in a good spot to find the twine again and certainly still has very bettable odds that are worth taking advantage of in this spot.
Boston Bruins Moneyline (-108; FanDuel)
Play to: -115
As much as I like the Predators and the run they went on to get themselves into the playoff race, there is still room for a little more regression before they get back in the win column. Over their last three games, this team has now allowed 20 goals against and were walloped on home ice by the Avalanche their last time out 7-4 (a game they once led 4-2).
In that game, the Predators allowed three power-play goals and that’s an area that will be a concern for them again tonight against the Bruins. Boston has one of the league's best power plays (ninth in efficiency) and comes into this game having gone 2-2 thus far on its road trip, with all four games being close affairs. Overall, the Bruins are 20-8 straight up on the road this season and will have a distinct advantage on special teams.
Nashville does rank 7th in xGF% at 5v5 but they have regressed in that regard over their last couple of games and are playing a fully rested and healthy Bruins team that can easily match them from a depth chart perspective. While it’s a little strange to see the Bruins as slight favorites on the road in this spot (they are still slight underdogs on Fanduel) it does seem warranted given the struggles of Nashville in certain areas of late.
Tage Thompson Anytime Goalscorer (+165; bet365)
Play to: +150
I like this spot a lot for Thompson. The Sabres winger is the epitome of a streaky scorer as evidenced by his four-goal outburst two games ago against the Devils. While I don't expect him to replicate that performance Thompson is playing the Capitals tonight, a team he has put up dominant performances against in the past. Thompson landed a hat trick against Washington in a January meeting from last season and has landed five or more SOG in each of his last three meetings with the Capitals.
Additionally, this version of the Sabres hasn’t necessarily dominated this series but they have put up goals against the Capitals, averaging 4.75 goals per game in their last four meetings with Washington.
There are a few different ways I like backing Thompson today (same game parlay, alternate shot totals) but with the spread in price on his goal prop today (he’s +165 on bet365 currently but as low as +140 on other sportsbooks) I like keeping it simple and taking the value on offer there.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for April 2
Timo Meier HIGHER 0.5 goals (scorcher)
See above…
Tage Thompson HIGHER 8.55 fantasy points
Thompson’s shot rate makes the fantasy points higher a little more attractive tonight for me. An assist likely allows us to hit the higher given that blocks and SOG are worth 1.0 and hits are 0.5 points.
Sam Montembeault HIGHER 28.5 saves
Florida is again one of the league leaders in shots per game (33.4) and playing a Canadiens team that allows the fourth most shots against per game (32.9). Montembeault has been lights out at home posting a .922 save percentage in 19 home starts this season so any number under 30 for a save total looks worth going higher on.
