The NHL moves on today with a two-game slate. The Dallas Stars finally broke through in Game 3, winning in OT vs the Golden Knights who are still up 2-1. The home team has yet to win a game in this series and Dallas will look to keep that streak going with another win.
In Miami, the Panthers will look to close out state rival Tampa Bay, who staved off elimination for a couple of days with a win in Game 4. Most of the games have been close between these teams and while Tampa Bay put up a good fight in Game 4, they now head on the road, where they have performed much worse this season.
With two games in play, there is still lots of opportunities to target. Read on for today’s bets below.
NHL Picks for Monday, April 29
Stars to win in regulation (+145; bet365)
I like this spot for Dallas. Thus far they have carried the play in the series to date. Dallas outshot Vegas badly again in Game 3 and likely would have won going away if not for the heroics of Logan Thompson, who stopped 43 shots in the loss. There is a lot to be gained psychologically from a breakthrough win like that, and while Vegas is a team we don’t want to underestimate it’s also important to remember that outside of goaltending and special teams, they have been the worse team in this series.
Dallas leads all playoff teams in xGF% going into Game 4, whereas the Golden Knights are dead last in that same category. It’s been all Dallas at even strength and you have to figure that at some point the Stars special teams may show up and land them a more lopsided win. I also would not want to keep betting on Logan Thompson posting save percentages of .950 or better every night. While he is undoubtedly locked in, his regular season was marked by some poor performances (mixed in with very solid stretches like we are seeing right now).
I don’t want to talk down Thompson too much, but Dallas is dominating the chances such that it’s hard not to want to play them again – especially since their betting number in Game 4 remains the exact same as it was in Game 3. In fact, I think with the momentum now shifted, this is a good time to take a bigger swing and play the regulation line with Dallas. The Stars were a dominant road team this season, and with them carrying the play, tonight seems like the spot where they finally break through for an easier win.
Jason Robertson Anytime Goal (+195; FanDuel)
Jason Robertson has been good to us in the playoffs. With his anytime goal prop right around +180 to +200 all series, he potted goals in Game 1 and 2 paying off anytime goal props for us (that were posted in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker). With him staying off the scoresheet in Game 3, and Thompson playing out of his mind, Robertson’s anytime goal price is again back to this +190 range and it’s a prop I like hitting once again for today.
The Stars power play has been mostly dormant in this series but the one special teams marker they did connect on came courtesy of Robertson in Game 1. The winger has looked a little more like the player who scored 41 and 46 goals in back-to-back seasons of late, landing 10 goals in his last 20 games, overall.
He’s also been one of the busiest Stars from both an ice time and shots-on-goal perspective, averaging 3.0 shots per game thus far, and hasn’t played less than 19 minutes in any of the first three games.
While I certainly like playing his goal prop, I do think this is a spot where we could look to ladder bet him in some same-game parlays and alternate goals/shots on goal markets as well. He’s +277 on Fanduel to record 3+ shots on net and a goal and we’re getting a big +1500 on Fanduel for him to score 2+ goals as well.
The Stars were a lethal offense this year (3.6 goals per game) and if they break out Robertson feels like the most likely candidate to pay off bettors with a big game.
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning over 6.5 goals (-104; FanDuel)
The line on the total for this game has already started to move towards the over, but we’re still getting a line bigger than -110 at most sportsbooks.
That’s good enough for a wager on the over between two teams whose offenses have dominated the series of late. While the first two meetings were 3-2 finals (marked by solid defensive play and solid goaltending) both the defense and the goaltending have regressed badly over the last two games with the Lightning now having allowed the second-most high-danger scoring chances against in the playoffs.
Florida was a dominant under team at home this season but they have been more prone to getting into shootouts with their state rival over the years, and the two teams played to a 5-3 Tampa Bay win back in February, in Miami. The big draw for me personally is the goaltending, which has been poor on both sides of late. Sergei Bobrovsky has now allowed nine goals on the last 61 shots he’s faced while Andrei Vasiklevskiy has looked like a shell of his former playoff-self allowing seven goals on his last 55 shots faced.
With this being an elimination game the over has a little more appeal as well. We could easily see Tampa Bay take chances they normally wouldn’t and pull the goalie very early if they are down multiple goals. This could then also lead to some late action and push the score from a 3-2 or 3-1 range to 5-2 very quickly.
As long as the number stays above -110, the over here looks like the preferred side.
Nashville +1.5 Series Handicap (+270; FanDuel)
It’s easy to write off the Predators after the Game 4 meltdown saw them blow a 3-1 lead – with less than 5 minutes remaining – but it’s also good to look at the bigger picture for betting.
The Canucks still have goaltending issues they will have to overcome (either backup Casey DeSmith or third-stringer Arturs Silvos will start Game 5). Silvos held up pretty well in Game 4 considering the circumstances but what’s concerning for Canuck fans is how little they have carried the play in this series. Vancouver was down mid-way through the third in Game 1, was down the majority of Game 4, and was badly outshot in both games in Nashville.
Nashville hasn’t dominated the way that the Stars have (who are also down in their series) but with how close this series has been, Nashville likely just needs a break or two in Game 5 (breaks they didn’t get in Nashville) and we’ll be back in Nashville for Game 6, where they will likely be set as decent favorites.
At the very least, I think the current Nashville +1.5 games line is worth taking a small futures on at this price and it would provide good hedge equity should we get back to Nashville after Tuesday’s pivotal Game 5.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Monday
- 3-Way: 5.43x multiplier
If we are right in our Stars thesis today then we want to be right in as many ways as possible.
On Underdog we can correlate our Robertson goal prop with HIGHERS on both Thompson’s goals against mark (HIGHER 2.5 goals against) and Joe Pavelski’s assist prop (HIGHER 0.5 assists).
On top of playing alongside Robertson at even strength, Pavelski generally plays a key role on the power-play so if we get another Robertson power-play marker he’ll have a great chance of paying this off and getting us our bigger payout.
