The NHL first round is quickly coming to a close. Last night we saw the Jets and Islanders season come to an end, while the Predators and Leafs lived on to fight another day. Tonight, there are only two games on the slate and we have yet another team in the Kings facing elimination.
Edmonton received an unlikely shutout from goalie Stuart Skinner in Game 4 and now heads back to Edmonton up 3-1. They beat the Kings in seven games in 2022 and six games in 2023, so a five-game win would be great for the OCD crowd.
Out in Dallas, the Stars are back to being decent-sized favorites after taking two games in a row on the road against Vegas. The series is tied 2-2 and the home team has yet to win a game.
Keep reading as we break down the best routes to take for betting on this mini two-game slate.
NHL Picks for Wednesday, May 1
Leon Draisaitl anytime goal (+140; FanDuel)
- 2+ goals (+900; Fanduel)
The Kings' special teams and goaltending have been their Achilles heel in this series and Leon Draisaitl has been at the forefront of exposing those weaknesses. While he was held goalless in Game 4, but still managed two shots on net and an assist in a game where the Oilers as a team only directed 13 shots toward David Rittich. Rittich was the Kings best goalie at times during the season but we shouldn’t over-romanticize him as a player. He’s only started over 22 games twice in his career and both of those seasons were pre-Covid.
In short, he’s a career backup who seems out of his league in this kind of high-pressure spot, and it's likely that Draisaitl exploits this fact today. As I’ve mentioned previously, Draisaitl has dominated the Kings of late (7 goals in last 10 games against L.A.) and is likely a little unlucky to have only three goals, having also gone scoreless in Game 2 – despite firing eight shots on net.
I do like the idea of playing the over on the Oilers team totals today and the Oilers over 3.5 goals has a decent -110 price over at Fanduel.
However, the prop star in me can’t hide from the fact that we are again getting juicy odds on a Draisaitl anytime goal, who is +140 on Fanduel and bigger in price (again) than both Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman.
With this being an elimination game and the late-game empty net also a possibility, the +900 on Draisaitl for multiple goals also stands out and looks worthy of a small wager or ladder bet as well.
Adrian Kempe over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120; DraftKings)
Sticking with this game, I don’t think we should overlook the fact that the Kings have been getting their chances. They outshot the Oilers 33 to 13 in Game 4 and also landed 37 shots in net in Game 1. Adrian Kempe has been a big part of this Kings’ attack to date. He landed three goals in the first two games and still had seven shot attempts in Game 4 – and was a little unlucky that four of them ended up being blocked.
Kempe is also not a player we have to worry about from a usage perspective. He plays alongside Anze Kopitar, who will likely push for huge minutes today and also gets first-unit power play exposure which could easily boost his SOG total. This series has been back and forth with each team taking turns pushing the action. Even with the Oilers being up 3-1, we should expect another closer game, with both teams getting chances.
The price on Kempe to go over 3.5 shots (which he did in the first three games) is still at +120 on DraftKings, which also provides a nice discount over the shorter prices at other major books. Given that he’s averaged 7.5 shot attempts in this series, laddering him through 5+ (+275) and 6+ (+500) shots on DraftKings isn’t a poor idea either.
Dallas Stars Win in Regulation (+110; bet365)
I’ve bet the Stars in each of the last two games of this series and see no reason to hop off the bandwagon now. Game 4 was a little bit closer in terms of play as the Golden Knights outshot the Stars 34-31 but Dallas has still dominated this series at 5v5. The good news for the Stars (and poor news for Golden Knights bettors) is that Dallas’ special teams finally woke up in Game 4. They held the Vegas power play off the scoresheet and their second unit also landed the team their second power-play goal of the series.
To make matters worse for the Golden Knights, their ace-the-hole, Logon Thompson, was outplayed by Jake Oettinger who stopped 32 shots for the win in Game 4. Oettinger has quietly rebounded after a slow start to this series and has now allowed just two goals against in each of his last three starts – posting save percentages of .920 or better in each of those games.
I’ve maintained that there is a good chance that Dallas’ relentless four-line attack will eventually wear down the Knights and lead to some kind of lopsided Dallas win and tonight feels like the night we may finally see that scenario play out. Vegas has also opted to start Adin Hill (unconfirmed but likely as of writing) which adds far more volatility to today’s outcome considering he hasn’t played in over two weeks.
Dallas is back to -160 on the moneyline but there is still decent divergence in the regulation line with bet365 hanging +110 odds – whereas other books have Dallas at -105. That’s more than enough incentive for me to take a chance that Dallas comes out and cooks up the kind of dominant win we have been waiting to see from them all series.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Wednesday
- 3-way, 5.66x multiplier
Kempe and Draisaitl have been two of the main drivers of offense for their respective teams in this series and we already made the case for their props above. Despite being outshot and generally outplayed in Game 4 I still like the Oilers to end the Kings season tonight and one huge reason is the edge they have in net.
Skinner gained big confidence by bouncing back after a Game 2 disaster and while he may not post another shutout tonight, another solid night likely sees him go over this 26.5 save mark, something he’s done in all but one game in this series.
Our odds get cut slightly by correlating Skinner’s saves HIGHER with Kempe’s SOG HIGHER but the tradeoff is worth it considering how confident Skinner is playing and how effective Kempe has been at getting shots through.
