We have just one game on the NHL slate today with the Leafs taking on the Bruins in Game 6 at home. Toronto staved off elimination in their last start with an OT win but will need more magic again tonight to force a Game 7.
As of writing, Auston Matthews (injury/illness) has been ruled out. The Leafs just won an elimination game without him (and dominated the play for much of said game) so it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this news.
I’ve broken down a couple of bets from this game today below but have also started to dive back into the futures market and included both a series prop for Round 2 and a Conn Smythe play as well.
The NHL bets for Thursday, May 2nd are below.
NHL Picks for Thursday, May 2
Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (+100; bet365)
I can’t resist putting my hand back in the cookie jar for tonight. I scraped out a moneyline win in Game 5 with Toronto when they were at +140 (a number that looks ridiculous in hindsight) but with Toronto still set as the underdog at home today they still look like the more appealing side to me. Home ice hasn’t been a big deal for teams in the NHL playoffs – especially for the Leafs who are 2-6 in their last eight home playoff games. But the Leafs playing in front of a raucous crowd, who are again filled with hope after an improbable Game 5 win, does seem like it will be rather advantageous.
Toronto has also been the better team for enough of this series to warrant taking them at this price as well. They’ve outperformed Boston in xGF% and have out-shot them by decent margins in the last two games. With Joseph Woll taking over in net the goaltending edge the Bruins had in previous games was neutralized to an extent and, certainly, there may be more special teams regression for Boston on the way who has run red hot on the power play and penalty-kill to start the series.
Betting Toronto tonight may not be a necessity but these teams always find a way to get to seven games somehow and, right now, this series feels eerily similar to ones of the past. Auston Matthews being ruled out has also pushed the Leafs' moneyline price back up to +100, and it could certainly close higher than that as well. Either way, I like the Leafs at home today to get things done and make this one go the distance.
John Tavares over 0.5 assists (+165; DraftKings)
Looking at player props for this game, the price of an anytime assist for John Tavares stuck out to me. He’s as low as -160 to record a single point but his odds balloon to +165 when we just take him to record an assist. Tavares isn’t the league's premier playmaker, but he still recorded 36 assists in 80 games this season and recorded well over 40 apples the two years prior.
The Leafs getting William Nylander back is also good for Tavares’ outlook in this market. Nylander didn’t score in Game 5 but he did have five shots on net and was perhaps the Leafs' most effective player. Auston Matthews won’t return today, and Nylander should stay on Tavares’ wing and provide better upside for that line as a whole.
All-in-all, I like Toronto in this game, and taking these bigger odds for a Tavares assist correlates well with that thesis. It’s just another fun way for us to burn money with the Leafs tonight.
Connor McDavid Conn Smythe Winner (+700; Fanduel)
The Oilers are now down as low as +350 in the Outright market to win the Stanley Cup but we can still get their captain and the playoff leader in scoring, Connor McDavid, at a very decent price to win playoff MVP on Fanduel.
McDavid would have competition for this award if the Oilers were to win as teammate Leon Draisaitl is coming off a big series against the Kings and does have five goals already. However, it’s hard to see a world where voters don’t lean towards McDavid if the choice is in any way close. On top of being the face of the league, he’s also coming off another historic season where he landed over 100 assists and takes on the opposing team's best defensive players on a nightly basis.
The other option to consider for Edmonton would be goalie Stuart Skinner, who did play well to end the Kings series but his inconsistency as a whole – and the Oilers' tendency to get into back-and-forth shootouts – means his overall stats likely holds him back from consideration.
If you like Edmonton to go far this season there just seems to be little downside to using McDavid to win the Smythe as a way to get a better price on that thesis. Given the very generous prices we were getting in the anytime goal markets in Round 1, we can always keep betting on Draisaitl's goal props anyway and look to profit off his success on a game-by-game basis instead.
Andrei Svechnikov Most Goals in Series (Round 2) (+1400; bet365)
Andrei Svechnikov had a very solid Round 1. He landed six shots on goal in a game twice against a tough defensive squad in the Islanders and finished off the series with a goal in Game 5. The Russian winger had a delayed start to the season as he recovered from an ACL injury and his early season stats suffered as a result. He’s over a year removed from that injury now and is starting to look more like the elite forward he was blossoming into before said injury.
I don’t expect this series to be high scoring given that we have solid goaltenders on both sides and good defensive squads. But fact is, the Hurricanes are still -150 favorites to take this series at most shops and if they do, someone from their team is very likely to be the leader in goals scored. Sebastian Aho led the way for their first line with a couple of goals in Round 1 while Jake Guentzel continues to be less aggressive with his shot than I thought he would when he was traded to Carolina at the deadline.
Svechnikov looked like the most dangerous of this trio at numerous points against the Islanders and seems likely to see more “puck luck” drop his way soon. His +1400 price on bet365 makes him fifth biggest in odds for this market among all Hurricanes which is just too big for me to ignore given his overall talent.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Thursday
- 5-way; 15.81x multiplier
As mentioned previously, I am very in for burning money on the Leafs tonight. In this scenario, we’re betting on the Leafs' best trio and power play coming through with the Nylander/Tavares/Swayman HIGHER combo but with Woll playing well I also think taking LOWERS on multiple Bruins players makes plenty of sense tonight as an add on for pick’em lineups. Boston hasn’t been good at generating chances outside of their special teams and if the Leafs do win we could easily see very low output from their top players again.
