The Oilers and Stars offenses started slowly but kicked things up a notch in Game 3. Edmonton’s speed broke down the Dallas defense early, while the Stars’ best skill player Jason Robertson finally made his presence felt with a hattrick.
All-in-all, the biggest stars on both sides of the ice, Robertson and Connor McDavid, combined for four goals and an assist, and the game ended with eight total tallies — three more than we saw in Game 1 or 2. Looking ahead to Game 4, it certainly feels like it will be tough for the defenses on either side to slow down these offensive juggernauts.
Edmonton’s weak goaltending depth is becoming a factor yet again as Stuart Skinner’s SV% for the playoffs has now dropped to .885%, by far the worst of the remaining four starters. On the flip side, Dallas’ defense got exposed for portions of Game 3 and will be facing a desperate Oilers squad who averaged 4.12 goals per game at home this season.
With this in mind, I’ve selected a few ways to potentially profit from a higher-scoring, back-and-forth affair tonight.
Best Bets for Oilers vs. Stars Game 4
Oilers vs Stars Over 6.0 Goals (+100; bet365)
I have targeted a few higher variance props today (and a monster +3000 below) but targeting the total is the easy way to gain leverage off a potentially higher-scoring affair.
As of writing, there are still some 5.5 totals lurking, but they are all available at quite short odds (-125 or worse). Certainly, the smaller total gives you a little more security but if we do get a ceiling game from one of the goalies (remember, even Stuart Skinner has recorded a shutout in these playoffs) then even that small number would be in jeopardy of getting chalked. Playing the bigger number at 6.0 just makes more sense, not only for the better odds we’re getting but also for how fast these offenses can strike if the same kind of back-and-forth game we saw in Game 3 breaks out.
Edmonton at home these playoffs has also been an over machine. Their home games have averaged 6.57 total goals and they currently sit with a 5-1-1 record to the over in seven home games.
Just given the price action (67% of the handle is on the over at DraftKings) I’d expect we see 6.0 totals across the board by puck drop and this number potentially move towards -110, making it a good one to add at its current number.
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-118; FanDuel)
The price on Hyaman’s SOG prop has shortened for Game 4, but it’s still offering us some decent value to take the Over. The Oilers winger makes his living banging home pucks around the net and, as he showcased in Game 3, that often makes him a very hard man to slow down with blocks or deflections. He attempted eight shots in the Game 3 loss to Dallas and seven of these attempts ended up hitting the net.
Overall, Hyman has now gone over this prop in four of his last five games and has averaged a healthy 4.2 shots on net in these playoffs. He’s also a player who produced drastic home-road splits this season that are worth noting.
The 31-year-old scored 63% of his goals at home this season and that was in large part due to how much more aggressive he was with his shot in games played in Edmonton. In 40 games played at home, he averaged 4.05 shots on net vs. just 3.2 shots on net at home.
Hyman’s been hitting the over on this 3.5 total with such ferocity in these playoffs that I wouldn’t hesitate to play this at a shorter number today. Even at -125, we’re getting an implied probability of around 55%, while his rate in these playoffs sits at 66% (10 out of 15 games).
Jason Robertson Anytime Goal Scorer (+260; FanDuel)
Robertson finally broke out of his slump in a big way in Game 3, recording a hattrick for the Stars and landing three goals in four shots on net. The skeptics would likely point to the fact that regression in Game 4 seems likely for a player who went 10 games without a goal before scoring.
However, given Robertson’s overall skill (he’s a two-time 40+ goal scorer) and the fact he endured such a long stretch of poor puck luck before breaking out, I'd argue there is just as good a chance that more positive regression is on the way soon.
Regardless of which way you lean, the odds today for Robertson help make our decision. He was regularly going off at +180 to +190 in the anytime goal market in the first two rounds, but even after his outburst, his anytime odds are still widely available at +220 or bigger tonight, with this market-leading +260 number on Fanduel looking extremely juicy.
This series has featured lots of back-and-forth action and with Stuart Skinner struggling again there is no harm in chasing a Robertson goal for another game today.
Same-Game Parlay for Oilers vs. Stars Game 4
- Jason Robertson Anytime Goal Scorer
- Roope Hintz Over 0.5 assists
- Zach Hyman Over 3.5 SOG
- Zach Hyman Anytime Goal
- Over 6.5 goals (total)
Reason for taking Over 6.5 goals:
- The Oilers and Stars have played eight regular-season games since the start of 2022. Six of those games have seen the game end with seven or more total goals scored.
- It’s not that shocking a result when you consider the nature of these teams either. Both teams have mobile defenses, great power plays, and high-end skill players who can take over the game at a moment's notice.
- The first two games of this series featured plenty of back-and-forth action but the goalies on both sides outperformed – and quite frankly got a little lucky in some spots. Either way, I think it’s likely we see another higher-scoring affair breakout with both sides potentially reaching 3+ goals again.
Reasons for taking Robertson Anytime Goal, Hintz Over 0.5 assists, and Hyman Over 3.5 SOG and Anytime Goal:
- The Stars first line dominated in Game 3, with Roope Hintz’s return giving them the ability to attack the Oilers' weaker defense with a legitimate top line of Robertson, Seguin, and Hintz
- Robertson is due for more positive regression (as noted above) and Hintz is a great two-way player who is playing alongside Robertson at even strength and on the power play (strong correlation in taking his assist over and a Robertson goal).
- Hyman has great home splits (also noted above) and the Oilers' power play is also due for some positive regression soon (they’re 0-5 in this series)
- All these props correlate well with a higher-scoring game and feature players who will be key for both sides when they are on the man advantage or in a potential empty net situation late.
