The NHL gives us a great two-slate for Friday night. The Predators will take on the Canucks in Game 1. Nashville scored two goals in the final 10 minutes of Game 5 to push this series to Game 6. Now they’ll either face a third-string goalie in Arturs Silovs or Casey DeSmith, the Canucks regular backup who has been out with an injury the past two games.
In Vegas, the Golden Knights will look to stave off elimination after they blew a 2-0 series lead. Dallas has won four straight and has yet to allow a third-period goal all series.
With two great games, we have lots of bets to scroll through, so read on for today’s plays.
NHL Picks for Friday, May 3
Nashville Predators Win in Regulation (+130; bet365)
I wrote about the Predators earlier in the week and how I thought they had a realistic shot to push this series to seven games after a heartbreaking Game 4 loss. They had played the Canucks even in most areas before getting down 3-1, with their main deficiency being a couple of late-game breaks not going their way and an ice-cold power play.
Things finally shifted for them in Game 5. They got a late power-play goal from one of their stars Roman Josi and a vintage performance in net from Jusse Saros (.950 SV%). By failing to close Nashville out in Game 5 (a game where they had a one-goal lead with less than 10 minutes left) the Canucks are also now stuck with a massive decision in net for Game 6. Casey DeSmith is nearly 100% healthy and likely ready to play but third-stringer Arturs Silovs (.904 SV%) has made two solid starts in a row.
Both goalies have clear deficiencies. DeSmith is a career backup and coming in cold while Silovs has made just 11 career NHL starts with middling numbers. Neither of these teams allows a ton of quality scoring chances but I do think the volatility in net for Vancouver means there is a decent chance the Predators win this game big.
As a result, I don’t mind taking on a bit more risk by going with the regulation line. It’s still available at +130 on bet365 and provides a lot more upside than the current -130 prices on the 2-way moneyline.
Dallas Stars Moneyline (-114; FanDuel)
Dallas is still available at nearly the same price they were before Game 4, which seems like a mistake to me.
Despite losing the first two games, the Stars have dominated this series. They’ve been far better at creating chances at 5v5, ranking out first in xGF% in the playoffs. Their special teams, which started slow, have now produced three power-play goals in their last two games, and their goaltending has done a complete 180. Jake Oettinger, who allowed four goals on 15 shots in the opener has now posted SV%’s of .920 or better in four straight games and hasn’t allowed a 3rd-period goal all series.
The bottom line is that I’ve bet the Stars three games in a row now (all bets that were logged beforehand in the FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker) and nothing about those wins would put me off betting them again in Game 6. With this game still hovering close to pick’em status, I’ll happily take the superior squad in Dallas to complete the quad-fecta.
Filip Forsberg anytime goal (+115; FanDuel)
Despite this series being extremely low scoring to date there is some value in going goal-hunting with the Predators given the indecision in net for Vancouver today. Forsberg’s goal prop has been stuck around -110 all series but after a goalless Game 5 it’s back up +115 on Fanduel, which is good enough for me given the circumstances today.
The Canucks have done well at limiting Forsberg’s chances but he came on in the third period of the last game and may also have the added benefit of an empty net chance tonight should Nashville be leading late. There may even be value in chasing the 2+ goal prop today with Forsberg (+750 Fanduel), who is coming off a career season. However, for now, I’m happy to take this +115 on an anytime goal which is significantly bigger than prices at other shops.
Jason Robertson anytime goal (+200; FanDuel)
Let’s stick with the goal market and move to the other game on the slate. Jason Robertson scored for the third time in this series in Game 5 and has now scored a goal in three of the games thus far. Despite the solid hit rate and the fact he’s not had trouble getting his shot through (3.2 shots per game) his anytime goal prop has again ballooned up to +200.
Vegas may have seemed to have a handle on Dallas’ offense to begin the series but a lot of those lower-scoring outputs from Games 1 to 3 were a result of Logan Thompson playing significantly above expectation. Vegas is dead last in high-danger scoring chances allowed in these playoffs and now has a big decision looming net as well with both Thompson and Adin Hill coming off poor performances.
I’d play Robertson down to +185 today and he’s also a good candidate to include in same-game parlays with the Dallas moneyline bet from above.
Jake Oettinger over 26.5 saves (-115; DraftKings)
Jake Oettinger has been terrific since a terrible Game 1. He’s allowed just 2 goals against in four straight games, posting SV%’s of .920 or better in all four of those starts. Despite the Stars allowing the fourth fewest high-danger scoring chances this postseason the Golden Knights are getting shots through.
Oettinger has averaged 31.6 shots faced over the last three games, and while that does include one OT contest it also includes Dallas’ Game 4 regulation win in Vegas, where the Golden Knights threw 34 shots his way.
Either way, I expect the Golden Knights to test Oettinger in this elimination game. This series has been tight most of the way with three of the four games being decided by one goal or less, meaning OT has a solid chance of rescuing us should Vegas not come through the volume we need in regulation.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Friday
- 5-way; 19.81x multiplier
I think the goalie advantage is with Dallas and Nashville today so I like starting any two-game pick’em with props that have Saros and Oettinger outperforming. I talked about Oettinger up above but Saros played very well in Game 5 and Nashville is one of the leaders in limiting high-danger scoring chances in the post-season.
Combining Eichel’s HIGHER for shots on net and Boeser’s LOWER for points correlates well with both of these goalie props and our overall thesis on how these games are (hopefully) going to go.
