Round 2 of the NHL playoffs officially began last night with the Rangers beating Carolina in Game 1.
Tonight, the second Eastern Conference series begins with the Panthers hosting Boston.
Let's break down that game and more Round 2 bets in today’s preview.
NHL Picks for Monday, May 6
Florida Panthers Win in Regulation (+100; bet365)
Of course, there are reasons to fear the Bruins. They are riding high after their win over Toronto, they have a top-tier goalie in Jeremy Swayman, and potentially the best forward in this series in David Pastrnak. But even when you stack together all the reasons to like Boston, it’s still not enough for me to lay off Florida.
On top of having the obvious rest advantage (Boston played in Game 7 on Saturday night) Florida has been the better team through and through all season. The Panthers were better at creating chances 5v5 (5th in xGF% vs 18th for Boston) and have a far better penalty-kill than Toronto, which should negate the Bruins’ biggest edge in this series.
Boston may have had the Panthers number in the regular season (4-0) but that’s not a trend I think we should rely on in the postseason. Two of those wins came in OT and Florida was missing several key players for heavy stretches this season. As they showed in Round 1 when they dismantled the Lightning, this team is tough to beat when completely healthy.
For betting, I do like the Panthers Win Game 1 / Win Series double (+112; Fanduel) but also don’t mind dabbling on the regulation today. The +100 line on bet365 is slightly bigger than it is at DraftKings and the huge rest disparity between these teams means there is likely a bigger chance of a Florida blowout tonight than there will be later on in the series.
Carter Verhaeghe 4+ SOG (+168; Fanduel) | 5+ SOG +375; Fanduel)
One thing I will also be doing in this series is continuing to bet the over on Carter Verhaeghe props.
Verhaeghe chopped the most goals in a series bet for us from my Round 1 preview at +450 (he scored five and tied with Steven Stamkos for the lead) and looked great all series. One huge difference between last year's Boston team that took Florida to seven games, and this year’s, is their propensity for allowing more shots on net.
Boston allowed the most shots on goal of any winning team in Round 1 (30.7) and allowed a full shot per game more this season, than last year. Verhaeghe himself showed that this Boston team is just slightly easier to get chances against as well. He landed seven shots against them back in a game in late March and comes into this series having averaged 4.4 shots on net in five games against Tampa Bay.
Whether or not the Panthers can score on Jeremy Swayman is another story, but I do expect their fresh legs – and the fact they know how tough an opponent Boston can be – to result in a lot of early shots on net from their top players early in this game.
The great news is that with Verhaghe’s shots on goal prices significantly bigger on Fanduel, taking his overs today is a great way for us to gain exposure to this thesis. I like putting most of my units at the 4+ shots mark but with 5+ shots offering +375 on Fanduel (significantly bigger than alternate total prices elsewhere), it makes sense to ladder Verhaeghe and get exposure to that bigger upside.
Leon Draisaitl Most Goals in Series (+400; FanDuel)
The Oilers (-260; DraftKings) are heavy favorites in their second-round series against the Canucks. I expect Edmonton’s offensive prowess to allow them to prevail but also think it could be a closer series than expected, hence I don’t want to take them on any series handicap lines.
A better way to gain leverage if you like Edmonton may be in the player prop markets. Edmonton has very condensed scoring, with forwards Zach Hyman and Leon Draisiatl combining for 12 goals in the first round alone. Hyman is an absolute machine around the net but Draisaitl is the more dynamic player and harder to shutdown. He’s also torched the Canucks over his career and has goals against them in four of his last five meetings with Vancouver.
Regardless, if we like Edmonton to win this series (or go to seven games) it’s very likely we’ll see an Oiler lead the series in goals. In that scenario, Hyman and Draisaitl would be the two heavy favorites to prevail in that market.
Draisaitl (+400) has a slightly bigger price on Fanduel than Hyman (+340), and with the German coming off the big series against L.A., his prop there makes sense to target as an alternative way to bet on the Oilers in Round 2.
Brock Boeser Most Goals in Series (+1100; FanDuel)
If we’re taking a piece of Draisaitl in this market I also think it makes sense to look at the other side of this series and think about scenarios where the Canucks win, or a lower-scoring seven-game series plays out.
For me, the most obvious name that pops up in those scenarios (as a potential series goal leader) would be the Canucks 40-goal scorer Brock Boeser, who landed four goals in six games against the Predators in Round 1 (including a Game 3 hat trick). Boeser has shown he can score in bunches and with the Canucks lacking scoring depth on the wing will be a pivotal player for them and should see a ton of power play time.
It’s not a perfect formula, but taking a small piece of Boeser (alongside our Draisaitl pick) at this price gives us a small out should the Canucks win this series in dominant fashion, or the series stays lower-scoring and goes to its full seven games in length.
At +1100, he’s also significantly bigger on Fanduel than he is at other books, making this a nice value proposition as well.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Monday
- 3-way, 5.66x multiplier
The Bruins allowed the most shots on goal of any surviving playoff team in Round 1 and averaged 32 shots per game against Tampa; the third most shots per game in Round 1. Combining the HIGHERs on Verhaeghe and Swayman gives us sold exposure to the thesis that Florida dominates the SOG totals again in this series.
As for Marchand, the Panthers' defense is great at limiting chances to begin with and he played more of a penalty-killer, checking role for Boston against Toronto. Despite there being two OT games in the final three games of that series he also managed just 2.0 SOG.
With the scorcher multiplier attached, his LOWER makes sense to include if we’re looking at a scenario where Florida dominates a lot of the chances today.
