We have a two-game slate in the NHL tonight with the Rangers and Hurricanes playing Game 2 of their series and the Avalanche and Stars playing in Game 1.
Despite dismantling the Jets in Round 1 the Avalanche will open as small underdogs in Game 1, while the Hurricanes remain small favorites for Game 2 – despite losing in New York in Game 1.
So where do we turn today for betting?
Read on for today’s full NHL betting preview below.
NHL Picks for Tuesday, May 7
Hurricanes at Rangers First Period Under 1.5 (-115; bet365)
The first game of this series saw seven goals scored but I don’t think that’s a trend we should be expecting to continue tonight. These two teams are both built to limit scoring chances and have solid goalies so tighter, lower-scoring games from here on out wouldn’t shock me. The Hurricanes looked a little sluggish in the first period and didn’t get the best game out of Frederick Anderson in Game 1, but allowed the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances against in the regular season and posted a 47-34-1 record to the under during the regular season as well. Three of their five Round 1 games against the Islanders saw 5 goals or less scored.
The Rangers aren’t much different. They have a former Vezina winner in net with Igor Shesterkin who has posted a .921 save% in the playoffs to date and played a tighter first-round series with Washington in Round 1, with neither team scoring more than four goals in a game.
With Game 1 in the books and so much on the line for Game 2, I would expect a tighter game from the get-go. Carolina should be wary of giving up chances and man advantages making them less apt to take chances offensively themselves. They haven’t been the most explosive offense in the playoffs to date and one wonders if their lack of upside will again make this a short playoffs for the Hurricanes. That’s yet to be determined but, regardless, I like playing for a slow opener today, after a few more goals than expected were scored in Game 1. This price is also far more attractive at bet365 (-115) than it is at other books – which all have the first period under set at -122 or worse - making it the better play for me, as opposed to going to the under on the full game total of 5.5
Devon Toews Over 0.5 points (+130; bet365)
I like the Avalanche tonight but am a little wary of going with the team off a longer rest after the Panthers debacle from yesterday. Instead, I’ll be targeting the Avalanche in the player props department, mainly, where we can get good numbers on players like Devon Toews to register a point. Toews scored at least one point in 53% of his games this season and also managed points in three of the five games against the Jets.
He’s an often underrated part of this Avalanche team and plays bigger minutes on the first pairing with Cale Makar, whose own offensive prowess only adds to Toews' upside. The Stars are a solid defensive squad and we saw some great play from Jake Oettinger to close out the Vegas series but both Oettinger and the Stars had trouble containing the Avalanche during the regular season. Colorado went 3-1 in their four meetings with the Stars this season, scoring 20 goals in those four games, and Toews had assists in every single matchup (and five assists total).
Past success isn’t a guarantee of future outcomes but Toews’ play in Round 1 should have us bullish for a quick start to this series as well. His lack of fame (compared to his teammates) also means we are getting very solid prices to take his over today at +130, which equates to 43% implied probability and gives us approximately a 10% edge off his regular season hit rate. That’s enough to make this a bet for me tonight against a Dallas squad that is at a rest disadvantage and playing a team they have had no answer for defensively this season.
Mikko Rantanen Anytime Goalscorer (+160; FanDuel)
Building on the thesis from above, I also think it’s prudent to add this anytime goal prop for Mikko Rantanen tonight, which is set at a very friendly +160 on Fanduel.
Rantanen is set as low as +125 at other sportsbooks, so right off the bat you have to love the divergence in price we are getting in this market. The 27-year-old is coming off a very solid series against the Jets where he only scored in one game, but registered nine points over the five-game series.
The lack of goals from Round 1 may put some off but Rantanen remains the Avs most lethal winger and is coming off his second straight 40+ goal season in a row. He did land 11 shots on net over his last three games against the Jets, as well, so there is certainly the chance for more positive regression coming early in this series, against a Dallas team he scored three times against this season.
With such good odds, we only need one of Rantanen's or Toews’ props to pay off tonight to profit, but with how well Colorado’s offensive has gelled in the playoffs, hitting both is certainly a potential outcome as well.
Avalanche Same Game Parlay (+475; bet365)
- Avalanche over 3.5 goals
- Rantanen Anytime Goal
- Avalanche Win in Regulation
Any Avalanche win tonight seems likely to come with plenty of goals. As mentioned, these teams played four times this season and Colorado was never held to less than four goals in any of those games. Additionally – and not to over-emphasize the regular season meetings – three of the four games between the Stars and Avalanche were decided by three goals or more so if Dallas comes out sluggish there is every chance we see a multiple-goal Colorado win in regulation.
One could argue that given this is the playoffs those past games are meaningless, but we also just witnessed the Avalanche post five or more goals in every single game against another solid defensive club in Winnipeg, so I’m sure I would subscribe to that thesis (or least won’t until we see how Game 1 plays out).
Regardless, we can correlate Colorado hitting over 3.5 goals AND landing a 60-minute win which seems very likely to happen should the first leg of that two-way hit – especially with how well Alex Georgiev played against Winnipeg. After that, adding in our favorite Avalanche goal prop from above makes plenty of sense given we are expecting the Avs to score at least four times. Given Rantanen’s goal prop is still very bettable above +120 the +475 odds for this three-way parlay (which is a much better price than it is at other books) make this a solid way to get more exposure to the Avalanche’s upside and give ourselves a shot at big returns should they dominant Game 1.
